Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 27399 times)

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Offline karajorma

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Yeah, I'm just saying that I'd rather we didn't leap to conclusions.
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Offline theperfectdrugsk

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I'd want to see the raw data for that article. They're basing the entire thing on 35 being the "expected" deaths under normal circumstances, but they don't say how many years that 35 is based on, the SE, and so on. When some one gives me assurances like:

Quote
The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive.
I wanna see those numbers.

Also...does anyone recall, is the oft-quoted 1% mortality rate based on someone receiving intensive hospitalization, no care, or some overall average of those?

Shelter in place order finally going into effect here on Monday. I'm glad they're doing it, but I'm also glad there's still an allowance for hiking, fishing, hunting. I love holing up with a video game as much a anyone else in this forum, but if I don't get to go out and **** around in the woods occasionally I get pretty grumpy.

 

Offline Dysko

No word about toilet paper shortages here in Italy that I know of, is that a US thing?
We did get hand sanitizer shortages though.
In which area do you live? Here in Bergamo, when I last went to the supermarket 2 weeks ago, it was next to impossible to find, along with denaturated alcohol and clothes detergents.

And now we also ran out of brewer's yeast, as everybody is trying to make pizza at home :lol:

Just to have some fun, here is a video of Italian mayors and governors angry with people disobeying orders:


As for the number of cases in Italy... Unfortunately, not all positive people are being counted in the statistics. At least 2 former schoolmates of mine caught the virus (fortunately with mild symptoms only, and they have already recovered), but they didn't qualify for swabs, so they were not counted in the official statistics. They were simply said "Do not go out for 2 weeks since the last symptom disappeared".
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 08:10:27 am by Dysko »
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Offline Su-tehp

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Just to have some fun, here is a video of Italian mayors and governors angry with people disobeying orders:

My sister (who has citizenship in both the US and Italy and our mother was Italian) emailed me this very vid yesterday. Yeah, this sh!t is serious, but I still had to laugh my ass off at these Italian mayors being very Italian.
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Offline karajorma

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https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/us-now-top-site-of-corona-infections-as-a-control-plan-emerges/

A really good article explaining how scientists attempting to model the virus spread using various assumptions has been co-opted to mean partisan "fake models" are being talked about now. Yes it's dumb. Yes it shows an amazing lack of understanding of how science works, but this is apparently the world we live in now.
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Offline theperfectdrugsk

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Or for an even simpler summary of why our response has been a bit of a cluster****:

 

Offline Det. Bullock

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No word about toilet paper shortages here in Italy that I know of, is that a US thing?
We did get hand sanitizer shortages though.
In which area do you live? Here in Bergamo, when I last went to the supermarket 2 weeks ago, it was next to impossible to find, along with denaturated alcohol and clothes detergents.

And now we also ran out of brewer's yeast, as everybody is trying to make pizza at home :lol:
Lipari island, so probably we have it just a tad better than in Lombardy I guess.
Funny about the pizza, especially considering it's Bergamo I thought we southerners were the pizza addicts.
There is also the fact that I'm not the one buying groceries in the family so I probably didn't notice but my corner of Italian social media doesn't seem as obsessed by toilet paper as the US media, it's mostly Amuchina memes.
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Offline General Battuta

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Also...does anyone recall, is the oft-quoted 1% mortality rate based on someone receiving intensive hospitalization, no care, or some overall average of those?

Pretty sure it's just deaths divided by known infections.

If anything it's probably too high, since true infections is probably >> known infections. But as was floated upthread, there may be COVID deaths which have not been counted.

 

Offline Det. Bullock

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By the way in Palermo some people tried to raid supermarkets so they put police guarding the entrances, it's speculated the local mafia is behind it.
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The 1% is a rather optimist estimate. The WHO states:

Quote from: World Health Organization
Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

 

Offline jr2

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Japan is remarkable - they have a huge upside-down demographic pyramid, and yet their case and mortality rates are incredibly low.

Japan is not testing at *nearly* the same rate as South Korea. Or, err, at all.

Hey, at least we know the CCP is.  You know.  And, uh.. kicking journalists out.  But still accurately testing & reporting.  :rolleyes:  I'd be more inclined to believe them if it was pretty tamped down but basically stopped cold?  Yeahhhh.. sure.  Imma press X on that.


EDIT:

When people talk about "prioritizing the economy":




There is a point where the economy collapsing will cause more deaths with COVID assisting than just COVID alone.  I don't think we're there yet, but it is something to keep an eye on and eventually we can figure out how to lock down hot spots and social distance less affected regions.  Like, did China lock the entire country down or just Wuhan and other affected areas?  Let's be logical.  Which means, right now, testing everything and finding a way to test for antibodies which will help get a better picture.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 03:51:57 pm by jr2 »

 

Offline castor

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A really good article explaining how scientists attempting to model the virus spread using various assumptions has been co-opted to mean partisan "fake models" are being talked about now. Yes it's dumb. Yes it shows an amazing lack of understanding of how science works, but this is apparently the world we live in now.
Even worse than that, in many instances it obviously is a deliberate decision to not care. Like a disease of its own.

 
jr2, you may still want to answer Karajorma's question or err, explain how you know better then the entire medical world what the best dose of malaria medicine to take for covid 19 is :P

Quote
Hey, at least we know the CCP is.  You know.  And, uh.. kicking journalists out.  But still accurately testing & reporting.  :rolleyes:  I'd be more inclined to believe them if it was pretty tamped down but basically stopped cold?  Yeahhhh.. sure.  Imma press X on that.

Quote
Like, did China lock the entire country down or just Wuhan and other affected areas?  Let's be logical.

So err, do you believe China went too far or not far enough?

Do you actually read your own posts?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 04:59:04 pm by -Joshua- »

 

Offline jr2

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jr2, you may still want to answer Karajorma's question or err, explain how you know better then the entire medical world what the best dose of malaria medicine to take for covid 19 is :P

Ballpark.  But since you're oh so interested:

Quote from: CDC
There are no currently available data from Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) to inform clinical guidance on the use, dosing, or duration of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.  Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.

Link for CDC source.

Quote
Hey, at least we know the CCP is.  You know.  And, uh.. kicking journalists out.  But still accurately testing & reporting.  :rolleyes:  I'd be more inclined to believe them if it was pretty tamped down but basically stopped cold?  Yeahhhh.. sure.  Imma press X on that.

Quote
Like, did China lock the entire country down or just Wuhan and other affected areas?  Let's be logical.

So err, do you believe China went too far or not far enough?

Do you actually read your own posts?

China didn't go far enough, and in fact destroyed evidence and denied there was a problem for at least 3 weeks.  THEN, they pushed draconian measures (welding doors shut locking people into their apartments etc) to make up for it.  Typical repressive regime ****.  Now, they are pretending that they have solved the problem while not testing for CV19 any more, or so the story goes (kind of hard to tell since they kicked our journalists out of the country)

Now is that simple enough for you to track?  I'm assuming you know how to follow links on a search engine, yes?  I mean FFS.  They might be acting a bit nicer to certain people but do you pay attention to what these cretins do on a regular basis?  Here, have another.

I've got nothing against Chinese, but I have a huge bone to pick with Communists.  And currently, 1.4 billion Chinese are stuck under the iron boot of the CCP.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot.  Where did 21 million cell phone users disappear to in the PRC?

 
Not to mention the people who have "disappeared" or been imprisoned after criticizing China's response - among them, two journalists (Fang Bin and Chen Qiushi), two academics (Xu Zhangrun and Xu Zhiyong), and a real estate tycoon (Ren Zhiqiang).

Edit: By "China", I of course mean the CPC.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 08:19:08 pm by GhylTarvoke »

 

Offline mjn.mixael

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People in this thread talking about how poorly the US response has been...

jr2: WHATABOUTCHINA

China's failures do not make the US response better.
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Sure. And the US' failures do not excuse China's cover-up.

 

Offline karajorma

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Notice that no one particularly wanted to talk about the subject when it was going on though? Why is it that it's only in March that we're talking about China's failures in December & January? Could it possibly be that people want to distract us away from talking about America's failure in March being talked about in March?

Oh yeah, I almost forgot.  Where did 21 million cell phone users disappear to in the PRC?

How much testing have you done of that 21 million disappeared people claim? You've spent a really long time debunking the supposed "fake news" that is being spread abut the coronavirus in the USA. Why are you not spending a modicum of that time on checking the stuff you're insisting is true? Why aren't you doing bing searches on that stuff? If you had, you would have quickly noticed

1) This drop is not unprecedented. There was a drop in cell phone usage of around 10 million between  March and June. What disaster are you claiming killed 10 million people back then?
2) You would have noticed that China has 1.6 billion cell phones but only 1.4 billion people which absolutely should have got you wondering about those alternative explanations which were so quickly dismissed by Epoch Times. They claimed that Chinese migrant workers and students couldn't allow their phone subscriptions to lapse because they need those subscriptions in order to prove their ID. Which is true. But they only need one phone to do that. But it should be immediately obvious that there are 200 million more phones than people. That number could have dropped by 200million and those objections still wouldn't mean a damn thing because those people would still have a mobile phone to do all that with.
3) So given how easy it is to let a subscription lapse in China (you literally don't do anything and they cut you off when your balance is negative), it's pretty easy to see that the 21m fall can easily be explained by migrant workers and students letting their Shanghai number die because they have no need for it when they are locked down in their hometown in Sichuan.

So there are alternative explanations for that claim, ones that aren't based on a single point of data which as I've proved is wrong anyway, why are you spreading it without checking it as rigorously as you have checked the ones that make Trump look better? Why haven't you spent the 30 seconds it would have taken to check the facts for yourself?

See? This is exactly the sort of bull**** I called you out on multiple times earlier. This is the same as when you posted an article about the lack of masks and tried to claim it explained why Obama was responsible for the lack of testing. This is the same as when you argued that a manufacturing defect means that we should ignore that the testing kits still weren't available in early March. In case you are wondering why people keep asking you to answer Karajorma's question, this is the question I asked you.

Please explain why you are engaging in exactly the sort of flim-flam and half truths you are calling other people out for.

even if you are just standing up for the truth, even if you just think that the truth is super important and everyone needs to know the truth so you have to shout it out onto a thread that never asked you to do so, why are you being so selective about which truths you stand up for?

Why are you misrepresenting the truth in order to argue that the truth is important and shouldn't be misrepresented?
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Notice that no one particularly wanted to talk about the subject when it was going on though? Why is it that it's only in March that we're talking about China's failures in December & January? Could it possibly be that people want to distract us away from talking about America's failure in March being talked about in March?

China's cover-up is ongoing. Four of the disappearances/imprisonments that I mentioned took place in February. Ren Zhiqiang disappeared earlier this month.

  

Offline General Battuta

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We passed the 9/11 death toll in the past two days! CONTINUE THE DOUBLING