Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 28558 times)

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What have I assumed about the under-reporting factor?

That it is inflated by intentional efforts to cover things up.

Why do I need to explain your assumptions to you.

You're gaslighting me now? Here's what you claimed:

so there actually is a chance that the underreporting factor is not as large as you assume.

I am, in fact, making no assumptions about the size of the under-reporting factor. Have there been 5,000 deaths? 10,000? 50,000? I have no idea.

 
Because it, quite literally, does not matter at this point. It mattered back in January, now it doesn't; Now we have a lot of data from a multitude of sources, some more reliable than others.
TLDR; it doesn't matter what China's actual numbers are. The US has botched this problem either way and people are dying because of it.

You must be joking. By saying that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are, you're doing exactly what jr2 and Goober were doing: minimizing the number of deaths, and the extent of the government's failures. jr2 and Goober were doing it with the U.S., and now you're doing it with China.

But that's the thing: If China managed to hide tens of thousands of deaths, the US would still be matching that (assuming no under-reporting on the side of the US, which is a stretch considering its lack of testing). It's not so much about how utterly untrustworthy the Chinese data is, but how effective their cover-up would have to be in order to absolve the US government. Last time I checked...

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“You’re talking about 2.2 million deaths,” Trump said, referring to an Imperial College study that identified 2.2 million people as the high end of how many Americans could die if no measures were taken to slow the spread of coronavirus. “So if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000, it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 [thousand] and 200,000, we altogether have done a very good job.”

Do you think China is able to hide between a hundred thousand and 2.2 million deaths?

What on earth is your obsession with "absolving the U.S. government"? The U.S. government's response was horrible. That has nothing to do with China.

I have no idea what China's numbers are. That said, where concentration camps are concerned, China is able to hide between hundreds of thousands and 3 million prisoners.

 

Offline The E

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I am, in fact, making no assumptions about the size of the under-reporting factor. Have there been 5,000 deaths? 10,000? 50,000? I have no idea.

You are, however, making the assumption that the chinese government is intentionally under-reporting. That does imply that the chinese government, on some level, is aware of the real toll (or, at least, has data that diverges from the official data). It seems to me that, aside from the inherent unreliability of COVID-19-related statistics, statistics that have been intentionally manipulated would be subject to a higher degree of underreporting than "natural" data would be.

You must be joking. By saying that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are, you're doing exactly what jr2 and Goober were doing: minimizing the number of deaths, and the extent of the government's failures. jr2 and Goober were doing it with the U.S., and now you're doing it with China.

It doesn't matter whether or not the COVID data from China is accurate or intentionally fuzzed, because COVID is already everywhere. There is, bluntly, much more data available now, from ostensibly more reliable sources, that can be used to inform policy. I mean, the basic claim the chinese government made, through its data, is that travel restrictions, testing and tracing, and quickly ramped-up health care capacity are effective tools in mitigating the outbreak. Is that really so outlandish?

The only thing that matters is what the PRC government is doing to reduce the impact of COVID. Unless there's data to the contrary out there, I think it's useless to assume or speculate about what the PRC is trying to hide from whom; the thing is that, for all its faults, once the PRC decided to actually fight the disease, they did it in a coherent and apparently effective manner from what Kara tells us.

I don't quite know how you think that's anywhere close to what our resident trumpets are trying to do: I don't think I am actually minimizing anything when I try to point out to you that this whole "They must be covering something up, because those official numbers are obvious nonsense" thing you're doing where the only supporting evidence you present are restrictions on social networks and scientific communication and research is, in my humble opinion, just another conspiracy theory that is rooted more in prejudice than in fact.
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The U.S. government's response was horrible. That has nothing to do with China.

Do you realize that this thread and the very posts you are replying to are part of an ongoing conversation where people are disputing this statement? The whole notion of absolving the US government is the context in which the statements you are challenging have been made.

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I have no idea what China's numbers are. That said, where concentration camps are concerned, China is able to hide between hundreds of thousands and 3 million prisoners.

China is not able to hide this. The concentration camps are well documented. Their existence is widely known throughout the world (or atleast the people that care about following what China does). It's known within China! To the point that the chinese authorities have more or less given up about trying to deny it's existence and instead have started talking about how they are good actually.

That's what makes this a conspiracy theory: For the chinese numbers to be far worse then stated, they have to show an ability to hide information that is far greater then any government (let alone themselves) has had, especially in this era where everyone has an internet connection and the ability to photograph and submit evidence at the press of a button (yes, I realize there's a great firewall, but it's hardly foolproof).
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 04:33:45 pm by -Joshua- »

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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TBH It's getting kinda hard to keep track of what the ongoing conversation in this thread is about. . .

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TBH It's getting kinda hard to keep track of what the ongoing conversation in this thread is about. . .

Fine let's make it about this:

 

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I don't quite know how you think that's anywhere close to what our resident trumpets are trying to do: I don't think I am actually minimizing anything when I try to point out to you that this whole "They must be covering something up, because those official numbers are obvious nonsense" thing you're doing where the only supporting evidence you present are restrictions on social networks and scientific communication and research is, in my humble opinion, just another conspiracy theory that is rooted more in prejudice than in fact.

The CCP has zero credibility with regard to its reporting on the outbreak. You might as well pull a number out of a hat.

You're seriously going to defend the claim that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? What if I said that it doesn't matter what NYC's numbers are? This is actually making me angry.

Do you realize that this thread and the very posts you are replying to are part of an ongoing conversation where people are disputing this statement? The whole notion of absolving the US government is the context in which the statements you are challenging have been made.

Sorry, I must have missed the memo that this is solely a U.S.-bashing thread. None of my U.S.-bashing posts generated any controversy, oddly enough.

China is not able to hide this. The concentration camps are well documented. Their existence is widely known throughout the world (or atleast the people that care about following what China does).

And how long did it take the world to discover the camps?

Even after two years, we only know that they have people in camps, just as we know that they have deaths from the coronavirus. What we don't know is how many people they have in camps. And there's a tremendous gulf between the low estimates and the high estimates.

 


That's one for the Darwin Awards...

 

Offline Goober5000

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GIVE ONE example of how the World Health Organization has been "criminally negligent" ONE.

https://summit.news/2020/04/01/japanese-vp-the-who-should-be-renamed-the-chinese-health-organization/
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the World Health Organization repeatedly amplified Chinese propaganda that the coronavirus outbreak was under control, including a January 14th tweet which falsely claimed there was no human to human transmission of the disease, despite this having occurred in December.

Throughout January, the WHO praised China for its open and “speedy” response to COVID-19, even as Beijing authorities were silencing and disappearing doctors like Ai Fen who tried to warn the world that China was engaged in a cover-up.

The global health body also repeatedly told countries not to enforce border controls that could have stopped the spread of the virus, instead placing more importance on avoiding the “stigmatization” of Chinese people.

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Also enplane why the USA is getting hit hardest by the virus if the W.H.O.'s "ineffectiveness" is to blame.

The USA is far from the hardest hit.  Switzerland has six times the number of cases, per-capita.

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EDIT: Oh and:

Math is math no matter who does it.

They are literally just making up numbers at this point.

And without a tinge of Irony.

Does the truth matter so little to you that you assign imaginary numbers the same weight as shown-their-work calculations?



I didn't ignore them. I looked up the claims Cernovich made and found several more reputable sources that agreed with him.
You misunderstood the question, basically: If, as you say, it's all just simple math, why is the first source you quote the blog of someone who can be charitably described as a grifter?

I understood the question, but it's the wrong question.  My first priority is the truth.  The message is more important than the messenger.

The problem with relying on "reputable" sources is that people will lie to you about who is reputable and who isn't.

 

Offline Stealth

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No, but what it will do, is when it turns out only 0.2% of cases are fatal, it will quickly reduce the amount of panic.

What are you even basing that on?
The fact that the only people getting tested right now are the ones with permission, that are displaying symptoms.
It's common sense.
Obviously I pulled the 0.2% out of thin air, but obviously if the only ones being tested have symptoms (i.e. have a much greater chance of actually being sick with coronavirus), then the % mortality is going to be WAY higher.

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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Quote
Also enplane why the USA is getting hit hardest by the virus if the W.H.O.'s "ineffectiveness" is to blame.
The USA is far from the hardest hit.  Switzerland has six times the number of cases, per-capita.

Per-Capita is not a useful measure when it comes to Epidemiology. population density and infection rate are far more important.
The change in cases over time is also a much better measure for determining spread:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?time=2020-02-22..&country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+GBR+USA

EDIT: here is another chart that is based on relative change:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?yScale=log&stackMode=relative&time=2020-02-22..&country=BEL+FRA+DEU+ITA+GBR+USA+SWE+CHN+IND+NZL


How fast an infection is spreading is how you tell what country is being the hardest hit, and it's the USA.

EDIT2 spelling.


« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 12:18:43 am by DefCynodont119 »
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Offline karajorma

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You're seriously going to defend the claim that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? What if I said that it doesn't matter what NYC's numbers are? This is actually making me angry.

You're arguing at cross-purposes with pretty much everyone else at this point. No one is saying that China has carte blanche to lie about its numbers. The point Hoover was making and which you decided to jump on was this.

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Honestly even aside from jr2/Goober's unbreakable partisan faith in Trump's infallibility, there is a deeper feeling in people in the West that the PRC simply cannot have managed the outbreak better overall than Western governments, and so the vastly lower death toll per capita must be entirely due to CCP lies.

Nothing you have said addresses this. In fact you are literally doing what he complains about.
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You're seriously going to defend the claim that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? What if I said that it doesn't matter what NYC's numbers are? This is actually making me angry.

You're arguing at cross-purposes with pretty much everyone else at this point.

Are you agreeing that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? Because that's the most blatant minimizing and denialism that I've seen in the entire thread, which is exactly what irked me. Especially since everyone had already condemned that behavior.

Nothing you have said addresses this. In fact you are literally doing what he complains about.

I notice you left out precisely the part of Hoover's post that I was addressing.

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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Are you agreeing that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? Because that's the most blatant minimizing and denialism that I've seen in the entire thread, which is exactly what irked me. Especially since everyone had already condemned that behavior.

I don't think anyone here is saying that.  :wtf:

As a matter of fact, re-reading these posts lead me to think that there is a misunderstanding here about posters arguing about whether it is/was relevant to the ongoing discussion in that or this point in the thread, rather then posters whether it is/was relevant at all.


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No, but what it will do, is when it turns out only 0.2% of cases are fatal, it will quickly reduce the amount of panic.

What are you even basing that on?
The fact that the only people getting tested right now are the ones with permission, that are displaying symptoms.
It's common sense.
Obviously I pulled the 0.2% out of thin air, but obviously if the only ones being tested have symptoms (i.e. have a much greater chance of actually being sick with coronavirus), then the % mortality is going to be WAY higher.

This is fair, but there are plenty of countries that are testing people en masse to the point that you don't have to pull a number out of thin air (though you will have to account for this virus mutating fast, those other countries having universal healthcare where the US does not, and that more testing also means that you can get people the help they need sooner - which in itself lowers the mortality rate).
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 12:20:20 am by -Joshua- »

 
The CCP has zero credibility with regard to its reporting on the outbreak. You might as well pull a number out of a hat.

You're seriously going to defend the claim that it doesn't matter what China's numbers are? What if I said that it doesn't matter what NYC's numbers are? This is actually making me angry.

If you might as well pull a number out of a hat, it doesn't matter what China's numbers are. We know what they did.

 

Offline Rhymes

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The exact values of the numbers from China (or really any country) don't matter. At all.

What matters is the story the numbers tell, which can be broken down into two questions.

1. Generally speaking how many people are infected? (Where are you now?)
A) A lot (this is bad)
B) A few (this is better but not ideal)
C) None (this is what you want)

2. What is the rate of infection doing? (Where are you going?)
A) Growing (getting worse)
B) Staying the same
C) Decreasing (getting better)

You cannot hide the answers to these questions no matter how much underreporting or fudging is going on. If it's not under control it grows exponentially to the point it can't be hidden. If it is but a lot of people are infected, you can't hide the strain on the medical infrastructure. Thus if it's under control, it's obvious. So no, China (or anyone else) fudging or misreporting the numbers doesn't matter. They're either engaging in the testing, tracing, isolation, and mitigation necessary to control the outbreak, or they're not, and the rest of the world can see the results either way.
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Offline The E

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You cannot hide the answers to these questions no matter how much underreporting or fudging is going on. If it's not under control it grows exponentially to the point it can't be hidden. If it is but a lot of people are infected, you can't hide the strain on the medical infrastructure. Thus if it's under control, it's obvious. So no, China (or anyone else) fudging or misreporting the numbers doesn't matter. They're either engaging in the testing, tracing, isolation, and mitigation necessary to control the outbreak, or they're not, and the rest of the world can see the results either way.

^^ that
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Offline karajorma

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I notice you left out precisely the part of Hoover's post that I was addressing.

And yet despite noticing that you still failed to grasp that I did that deliberately to point out that you are arguing at cross purposes with everyone else. Because everyone else is arguing about the part I quoted. And you are insisting on arguing about a throwaway comment in the brackets which doesn't really matter. And then getting annoyed when people keep telling you that it doesn't matter.
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