Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 28659 times)

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Offline The E

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The problem with relying on "reputable" sources is that people will lie to you about who is reputable and who isn't.

And what is the fact that your sources are a) a conspiracy theorist known to spread lies and b) the campaign to reelect a president who has been caught lying and falsifying things numerous times supposed to tell me about your commitment to this whole "truth" thing?
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Offline 666maslo666

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Per-Capita is not a useful measure when it comes to Epidemiology. population density and infection rate are far more important.

Don't agree, figures always have to be adjusted for population size or they lose almost all relevance. Comparing the whole of US to lets say, Italy, is quite meaningless. New infection cases per capita or new deaths per capita would be the best measures to find actual hotspots. I think population density is especially meaningless as densely populated east Asian cities seem to handle this pandemic the best so far.

That said, compare New York state to European countries, adjusted for population as you should, and it likely makes the US response look even worse. So if anything, proper per capita figures should strenghten this point that *parts* of US are among the hardest hit in the world.


Here in Slovakia (country of 5.5 million) we are now at 44,276 total tested (doing ~3,000 tests per day), 1,161 confirmed infected (+72 new yesterday), 229 cured, 12 dead (+1).

EDIT: look at this map and click on incidence rate:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 04:25:32 am by 666maslo666 »
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I think population density is especially meaningless as densely populated east Asian cities seem to handle this pandemic the best so far.

...

You do realize that viruses spread through close contact and proximity with other people right? You also understand that population density is a rough measure of how close people are to eachother right? That's what makes per capita meaningless too - you've already touched upon this yourself, but here it goes: Viruses have a "patient zero", an origin of the outbreak. They don't affect the population equally at all, becuase it all depends on whether or not people had contact with people who have the virus.

East asian countries are handling this the best because they already have the infrastructure in place to handle a SARS-like outbreak. They were prepared, they know what they are doing. They did all the things that people said they should do - test early, enforce social distancing early.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 05:23:12 am by -Joshua- »

 

Offline 666maslo666

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You do realize that viruses spread through close contact and proximity with other people right? You also understand that population density is a rough measure of how close people are to eachother right? That's what makes per capita meaningless too - you've already touched upon this yourself, but here it goes: Viruses have a "patient zero", an origin of the outbreak. They don't affect the population equally at all, becuase it all depends on whether or not people had contact with people who have the virus.

Population density alone is only a very rough proxy to actual close contact between people, especially for wealthier cities with very well developed infrastructure. Indeed, social isolation used to be an issue in such places, and is now a virtue of sorts during a pandemic. Testing and social distancing works very well in such dense cities despite high population density. That is why I do not think it is that important of a factor.

Viruses do not affect the population equally but at some point you just have to take population size into account and divide by the number of people, no way around it. Surely you see that comparing lets say, number of cases from a small region to a huge country is utterly meaningless without adjusting for population size?
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Offline karajorma

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Don't agree, figures always have to be adjusted for population size or they lose almost all relevance. Comparing the whole of US to lets say, Italy, is quite meaningless.

Well done, you've basically said that China and India are automatically going to be 4 times better than the US and 20 times better than the UK even if they have the same number of cases and deaths. Even if the virus is spreading as fast in both countries. You've literally argued that at this point they need 2 million cases and 300,000 deaths before they can be considered to be doing as badly as the UK for instance.
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Quote
Population density alone is only a very rough proxy to actual close contact between people, especially for wealthier cities with very well developed infrastructure.

You don't use public transport do you?

 
The sunday times investigated the UK's government response to the Coronavirus.

Sadly the Sunday Times operates behind a paywall so you can't see oh wait owen jones just took some screenshots damn.

Otherwise now would be the time to look into that 1 month free trail.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 06:27:53 am by -Joshua- »

 

Offline 666maslo666

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Well done, you've basically said that China and India are automatically going to be 4 times better than the US and 20 times better than the UK even if they have the same number of cases and deaths.

Well yes, I would say both China and India are significantly better off than the US (or certain US states) or UK as of now. Is that a controversial statement? I don't think so. Population size matters.

You don't use public transport do you?

Public transport is ubiquitous in dense east Asian cities and yet they did a great job.



Good twitter explainer thread by a virologist:

https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850557385572353
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return." - Leonardo da Vinci

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Offline karajorma

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Well yes, I would say both China and India are significantly better off than the US (or certain US states) or UK as of now. Is that a controversial statement? I don't think so. Population size matters.

Fine, but admit that India has done 5 times better than your country did at preventing the virus so far then.
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Offline Luis Dias

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My god, many parts of India and all the third world countries will be overwhelmed by this stuff, and we won't know it for months on end... until pictures of hospitals crammed with people suffering from "pneumonia related diseases" surface on the international news.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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The problem with relying on "reputable" sources is that people will lie to you about who is reputable and who isn't.

Hyper-skepticism with the truth will always lead you to post-truth bizarro-world shenanigans. Avoid it at all costs. Yes, "mainstream media" is always sketchy, to say the least, but to compare such sources negatively with bloggers, especially ones like Cernovich, is an error on value judgement that I can't even. It's the worst-level of truth heuristics that I have witnessed, and it has been very widespread for the past 20 years. Maybe some epideomologist could look into that.

 

Offline Aesaar

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"No sources are reputable therefore my sources can't be bad" is certainly the kind of galaxybrain hot take I expect from Trump fans.

 
My god, many parts of India and all the third world countries will be overwhelmed by this stuff, and we won't know it for months on end... until pictures of hospitals crammed with people suffering from "pneumonia related diseases" surface on the international news.

While scarcity of healthcare facilities in these regions, low capability for proper hygienic interactions and possible weakening of people's organisms due to hunger and other illnesses works against them...

...there's also some other things to consider, like having most of people who belong to the most susceptible groups (the elderly and people with autoimmune or other diseases) being already "picked off" by other factors, or having much less people moving around within the country.
So I guess it depends on a case to case basis.
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Offline Det. Bullock

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The problem with relying on "reputable" sources is that people will lie to you about who is reputable and who isn't.

Hyper-skepticism with the truth will always lead you to post-truth bizarro-world shenanigans. Avoid it at all costs.
Amen.
Just an hour ago my dad accused me of believing in fairy tales because I told him that the virus being created or coming from a chinese lab was bull**** when he brought up the argument, to be fair when when he told me I might have overreacted (bad science is a bit of a berserk button for me) but apparently he can't accept that there isn't some direct human responsibility and his first thought that I was being naive rather than relying on actual sources.
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Offline starlord

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This theory that covid was engineered by human hands is getting increasingly popular, all the more so since several media outlets started to mention the virology labs in Wuhan.

This situation is getting more and more prevalent in France with people accusing skeptics to this theory of being blind. This and the maddened rush of hope towards hydroxychloroquine has me more than a little worried.

 

Offline theperfectdrugsk

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Now, I've not read anything on the apparently silly Wuhan virology lab theory. Don't know anything about it, don't honestly care at this point.

But.

Playing devil's advocate here, but imagine there was a viral outbreak that originated in Atlanta. One could be forgiven for thinking it's a coincidence worth a look, no?

 

Offline karajorma

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Amen.
Just an hour ago my dad accused me of believing in fairy tales because I told him that the virus being created or coming from a chinese lab was bull**** when he brought up the argument, to be fair when when he told me I might have overreacted (bad science is a bit of a berserk button for me) but apparently he can't accept that there isn't some direct human responsibility and his first thought that I was being naive rather than relying on actual sources.


Scientists have taken a look and the theory is increasingly more ridiculous since research into the genome has shown it basically came from nature. No need for the virus lab to do anything.

So now you have a source to give to your dad.
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Offline theperfectdrugsk

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Ah. Well, that answered my thing too...which it's really stupid that now is when the 'virology lab' theory is making the rounds in the nethers of the internet, now that there's strong evidence against it. But I guess the nitwits only just now figured out there's a lab there, so they'll work with what they've got . :nono:

 

Offline mjn.mixael

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Ah. Well, that answered my thing too...which it's really stupid that now is when the 'virology lab' theory is making the rounds in the nethers of the internet, now that there's strong evidence against it. But I guess the nitwits only just now figured out there's a lab there, so they'll work with what they've got . :nono:

Just wait until you hear what they say about the news sources/scientists saying the virus came from nature.
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Offline starlord

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Pretty much.

Many of these people aren’t debating. They simply know they are right, whatever the logic or lack thereof, whatever the source, whatever the amount of scientific knowledge involved.

All hail the conspiracy theorists and the schizophrenia that follows.

Somebody get me my mace.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 08:21:40 pm by starlord »