[castor]

Nobody wants to touch this topic? No wonder, its damn scary.
So here's some pointers to get on with it: Tamiflu, Relenza, hypercytokinemia, Osterholm

As for how I see it, if the human-to-human mutation won't be heavily 'diluted', we're fu.. ehem, in trouble.

[FireCrack]

Umm... what??!?

[aldo_14]

Bird flu.  European/Asian problem, at least potentially.

Fear is that avian flu infecting humans could mutate with carried human flu genes, become human-human transmissable and thus cause a new global pandemic (some estimates are as high as 150m deaths ala the 1919 Spanish flu pandemic which killed 20-40m).

Human infections are mostly within the Asian regions; the likes of Thailand, China, etc.  However, migrating wild birds with the virus have led to cases detected in Turkey and Greece.

The estimated death toll in the UK from an outbreak is, IIRC, 50,000.

However, all that is dependent upon a mutation into a human transmissable disease; that may happen tomorrow, or never.  As it stands, the lack of such a mutation has the side-effect of making it impossible to develop a vaccine.

[Rictor]

So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.

I'm not too worried; the pharmaceutical industry, however, must be wiping their assess with $100 bills about now.

[Col. Fishguts]

To be precise, Roche (the producer of Tamiflu) is making a fortune.

And the press is going completely bonkers with hadlines like "Don't panic!!" , just to go on over 10 pages how lethal it could be.

[aldo_14]

Originally posted by Rictor
So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.

I'm not too worried; the pharmaceutical industry, however, must be wiping their assess with $100 bills about now.

Well, as is it's pretty hard to catch because it's avian-human and AFAIK that requires pretty close proximity.

It's not the panic state the newspapers like to put out, of course.

[karajorma]

Originally posted by Rictor
So far, 60 people have been killed by it. It's not exactly the Black Plague as these things go.

While it's only transmittable by bird-human contact. If this thing ever does mutate to human-human contact (and lets face it, it's only a matter of time) then those 60 deaths will be a drop in the ocean when you consider that flu is currently a pretty big killer even now with relatively mild strains.

[IceFire]

Pretty scarry...I'll definately be wanting to hide away if this thing goes nuts.

[Rictor]

Originally posted by karajorma


While it's only transmittable by bird-human contact. If this thing ever does mutate to human-human contact (and lets face it, it's only a matter of time) then those 60 deaths will be a drop in the ocean when you consider that flu is currently a pretty big killer even now with relatively mild strains.

Why has this only become a big issue now? If it could mutate at any time, why weren't we living in fear 10 years ago? Given that's it Europe and Asia's ass on the line, and they have more than their fair share of Smart Guys, I'm betting on a vaccine sooner or later, if the thing ever becomes a danger at all. Worse comes to worse, you just have the army quarantine the area.

Now, it would be a different situation in Third World countries, but I think that the relevant UN agency would lend a hand if anything happened, since everyone is at risk if it spread.

[Grey Wolf]

You aren't afraid of a situtation like the flu of 1918, Rictor? Antivirus production has not increased that much.

[Rictor]

I admit, my lack of fear may be due to ignorance. But surely things have improved in medicine since 1918, and not only in medicine but in areas of information, distribution, response and so on. If an outbreak were to occur, I'm pretty sure that it would be considered an international problem and treated with adequate resources.

[Grey Wolf]

Medicine has improved, especially in the antibacterial area.  Antiviral agents, however, are still a very new and untested field, and given the fact that the world is far more connected than it has been in the past and the increased population, a pandemic would likely cause even more deaths.

[achtung]

Who is it here that keeps on saying the world is shaking of the human virus?

Anyway, It'll probably happen considering we haven't had a major pandemic lately and well the world is starting to get a bit "cramped" I guess.

Now I'm glad I live in the middle of nowhere where everything is seperated by mountains and such.

[Rictor]

You know, what with all the natural disasters and potential epidemics and so forth, those survivalists up in the woods of Montana with their rifles and cans of beef are starting to look sensible.

But not to worry, JC Denton shows up and all the people get their Amrosia in the end.

[aldo_14]

Originally posted by Rictor
I admit, my lack of fear may be due to ignorance. But surely things have improved in medicine since 1918, and not only in medicine but in areas of information, distribution, response and so on. If an outbreak were to occur, I'm pretty sure that it would be considered an international problem and treated with adequate resources.

We also have a larger international problem and more transmission vectors (specifically air travel) than 1918.  In the issue of medicine, it's a red-queen type situation; with a mutation you'd probably need to be developing a specific cure or immunisation after the first human-human strain, and mass manufacturing would be as much of a problem as distribution.

The reason this is a present concern, rather than 10 years ago, is because of a pandemic type situation of avian flu in 2003-04 in Asia.  With the first avian-human transmission in 1997,  a large avian infection would be of concern in this regard.  10 years ago, we 9more correctly, the likes of the WHO) probably didn't know this was possible or feasible.

Of 3 (20th century) flu pandemics, there's been a high likelihood of an avian factor.  The 1918 virus has been linked with an avian origin.  The 1957-58 pandemic (killed 70,000 in US, originated from asia) and the 1968-69 pandemic (originated Hong Kong, killed 34,000 US) both contained a combination of genes from human and avian flu.

It's simple prudence to keep an eye on this and overestimate the measures needed to prevent/combat the risk.  That doesn't imply I or anyone else need go running away screaming when they see a pigeon.

[Kosh]

Originally posted by Grey Wolf
You aren't afraid of a situtation like the flu of 1918, Rictor? Antivirus production has not increased that much.

Plus any treatment would so horrifically expensive that most people couldn't dream of having it. Just look at the AIDS pandemic.

But not to worry, JC Denton shows up and all the people get their Amrosia in the end.

After many hundreds of millions of people die from pandemics.

[SadisticSid]

Originally posted by Rictor
You know, what with all the natural disasters and potential epidemics and so forth, those survivalists up in the woods of Montana with their rifles and cans of beef are starting to look sensible.

Not when they die of BSE, they won't.

[karajorma]

Originally posted by Rictor
Given that's it Europe and Asia's ass on the line, and they have more than their fair share of Smart Guys, I'm betting on a vaccine sooner or later, if the thing ever becomes a danger at all.  

You obviously don't understand the problem. Where birds in nature who have the disease have spread to is not the problem. Even if bird flu reaches the UK it doesn't really mean any extra danger to the average UK citizen as we only come across birds once they're cooked and on a dinner plate.

The danger from the spread of the virus is agricultural at the moment. The real danger is a mutation that becomes tranmissable from human to human. That has already happened in the past and it killed ~40 million people in 1918. If that happens it's not just Europe and Asia's problem. The entire world stands a good chance of being hit due to the ready availability of air travel.

After SARS I would have thought someone living in Canada would have realised exactly how big the danger of a disease spreading from Asia to there was.

[Mongoose]

Easy solution:  kill all birds.  Everything tastes like chicken anyway, so it's not like it would be a big loss.

[castor]

And if that didn't make you feel uneasy yet, this certainly will..



Hopefully there won't be agressive mutations within the coming few years, to give some time for preparations. Now that it seems the seriousness of the issue has been widely acknowledged.