[LordPomposity]

First, since this post has blossomed into quite the of text, the TLDR version: conquering Sol will do little to solve the problems that drove the GTVA to invade in the first place. Win or lose in Sol, rebellion and collapse are seriously likely.

The following exchange in the WiH Census thread got me thinking about the GTVA’s options at this point.

I don't really want to get into a point-by-point argument so I'll just say that

I think you're oversimplifying the problem here. It's not just that 'something will happen which will destabilize the GTVA', it's that almost all outcomes destabilize the GTVA.

Don't finish the gate? Population rebels at broken promises.

Finish the gate, don't declare war, don't try to control immigration? Enormous emigration to Sol.

Finish the gate, deny immigration? Rebellion that makes the NTF look like a picnic.

Finish the gate, attempt diplomatic resolution and staged immigration? Ubuntu ideology spreads virally.

Think of the GTVA in that situation as East Germany and the UEF as the West, except East Germany believes it needs to exist to keep the West safe, and the West doesn't seem to care much about that at all.

Ah but I can add to that:

finish the gate, have war, win war, deny immigration and still face just as large a rebellion on your side AND face rebellion/unrest in the recently conquered Sol system.

So, the war having started, let’s looks at the various ways (some much more likely than others), in which things could pan out. We’ll work our way from UEF victory to GTVA victory.

Scenario 1: Total UEF victory. The UEF routes GTVA forces in Sol, pushes through the node to Delta Serpentis, and proceeds to sweep through the GTVA system by system. The Security Council is either killed or signs an unconditional surrender at gunpoint. This would practically require direct divine intervention on the side of the UEF, but this being BP that’s not exactly outside the realm of possibility.

Result: the GTVA is conquered. The UEF may or may not actually disband the military/put the Admiralty in reeducation camps where they’re forced to learn Linux/turn the GTVA’s daughters into bloodthirsty pot-smoking schizophrenic lesbians/whatever the hell else the Security Council is afraid of, but in any case its curtains for the GTVA.

Scenario 2: Limited UEF victory. The UEF destroys or routes GTVA forces in Sol and reclaims their greatest advantage in this war: the ability to concentrate their defenses at a single subspace node. The GTVA gives up.

Result: The defecation hits the ventilation back home. The population accuses the Security Council of not taking the war seriously given the relatively small fraction of GTVA forces committed to Sol. Whether the accusation if fair or not, it’s enough to lead to rebellion. If the rebel forces are victorious, Possibly see a slight modification of Scenario 5. If the GTVA is victorious, well good for them, but they’ve taken severe losses and Sol is still blockaded (and probably has a lot more destroyers by the time the GTVA has cleaned up its mess at home). Depending on what sort of mood the UEF is in at the time, Scenario 1 becomes a possibility again.

Scenario 3: Truce. The UEF and GTVA fight to a draw.

Result: Pretty much the same as in Scenario 2, although if the rebels win then they’re probably in a better position to attack Sol.

Scenario 4: Quagmire. The war stagnates, and the GTVA forces in Sol are in no danger of defeat but fail to achieve victory.

Result: Again, questions are raised about how seriously the GTVA takes this war, and somebody stages a coup on the platform of committing more forces.

Scenario 5: Pyrrhic GTVA victory. The UEF destroys or routes GTVA forces in Sol and reclaims their greatest advantage in this war: the ability to concentrate their defenses at a single subspace node. The GTVA, faced with certain rebellion should they walk away from the war, commits everything.

Result: Easily the stupidest thing the GTVA could do. The entire GTVA fleet pours through the jumpgate in single file, straight into the waiting guns of four destroyers and numerous frigates. They eventually prevail given their vast numeric advantage, but the losses are appalling. Unless the GTVA is really lucky, somebody is probably going to use this as an excuse to stage a rebellion, on top of that. And that’s assuming the Shivans don’t show up before the GTVA can replenish its strength (a matter of years, if not decades).

Scenario 5: GTVA victory by UEF surrender. Pretty straightforward. The war keeps going the way it has been, and the Elders surrender.

Result: The GTVA now has to deal with exactly the same problems as it would have had it left Sol alone. If people wanted to migrate back to Earth before, they still will now. Ubuntu is still present and widely practiced on Earth, even if it no longer forms the basis of government, and the danger of its spreading remains. This danger is made all the more real because the harder the GTVA tries to repress Ubuntu, the more they will justify its ideology. On top of that, at least some elements of the Second and Third are likely to ignore the order to surrender. If they take either the Bretonnia or Solace back from the Elders in the process of going rogue, they could wreak havoc in the Sol system for years.

Scenario 6: GTVA victory by UEF surrender, followed by GTVA restrictions on migration back to Sol.

Result: Crazy Dave already covered this. Can you say ‘rebellion’? Yeah, I thought so. Plus the same problems with remaining elements of the Second and Third as listed in Scenario 6.

Scenario 7: GTVA victory by UEF surrender, followed by the eradication of Ubuntu, after which immigration is permitted. The GTVA is going to have to turn the entire system into a reeducation camp, and a full-blown police state replete with death squads is equally necessary.

Result: And, if it’s possible at all, it will take a LONG time. Long enough that the GTVA’s nascent population of proto-rebels will get impatient and go for the throat. On the plus side, GTVA forces would at least get some cool new black uniforms out of it.

Scenario 8: GTVA victory by total war. The UEF fights to the last man, and the GTVA incinerates every inhabited surface in the Sol system.

Result: Well, nobody wants to move back to Sol anymore, but they’re probably kind of pissed at the GTVA for expending massive resources to go back to Earth, only to go Vasuda Prime on it. This is not going to help stability. Not to mention the fact that if the GTVA mounts attacks this direct, they’re probably going to lose at least a destroyer or two before the UEF fleet is destroyed.

And all of these ignore the possibility that Steele may have already started TVW2.

Anybody have a scenario in which the GTVA is not completely and utterly screwed? Or am I completely mis-thinking one or more of these? Because the best option for the GTVA at this point seems to be to fly around their wing of Maras in Sol a bit, scream bloody murder about a third Shivan incursion, pull the fleet out, M-bomb the node, and hope nobody calls them on it.

[Commander Zane]

One thing I'm going to point out.

The entire GTVA fleet pours through the jumpgate in single file, straight into the waiting guns of four destroyers and numerous frigates.

The UEF has only three.

[MatthTheGeek]

Scenario 1: Total UEF victory. The UEF routes GTVA forces in Sol, pushes through the node to Delta Serpentis, and proceeds to sweep through the GTVA system by system. The Security Council is either killed or signs an unconditional surrender at gunpoint. This would practically require direct divine intervention on the side of the UEF, but this being BP that’s not exactly outside the realm of possibility.

Technically unfeasible, not merely because the GTVA vastly outnumbers the UEF and is l33t at blockading jump nodes, but simply because the UEF ships are designed for situations where supplies are only an intrasystem jump away. Their ships simply can't face the logistic imperatives of operating out of Sol, contrary to GTVA ships. They wouldn't be able to mount any kind of credible offensive toward the GTVA core systems.


For the rest, there isn't anything screaming "definitely not possible in the BP universe". Scenarios sound feasible if more or less unlikely.

Anybody have a scenario in which the GTVA is not completely and utterly screwed? Or am I completely mis-thinking one or more of these? Because the best option for the GTVA at this point seems to be to fly around their wing of Maras in Sol a bit, scream bloody murder about a third Shivan incursion, pull the fleet out, M-bomb the node, and hope nobody calls them on it.

Simple. GTVA wins the war, and has a firm enough control on the GTVA-side population to reduce the risks and/or extent of potential rebellions, through propaganda and quiet assassinations (remember the BP tech description of the Pegasus ?)

EDIT: Also, for reasons discussed in other topics, the UEF would probably not manage to hold a solid node blockade if they ever manage to drive the GTVA back and retake the node. GTVA sends a meson bomb to clear the immediate vicinity of the node, then fighters that jump out immediately further in system and then back to bomb/treb/maxim the hell out of Narayanas that would like to play snipers. Then sends the fleet.

[The E]

No matter how the war ends (and I have a hard time believing the GTVA or UEF would resort to scorched Earth tactics), one population will have to integrate the other in some way. Given that the civilian population is basically the same size for both polities (~9 Billion, give or take), the victor will be changed into something that is fundamentally different. Just as there is no way Ubuntu policies would work to govern an area as vast as the terran part of the GTVA unaltered, there is no practical way for the GTVA to eradicate Ubuntu completely.

[LordPomposity]

One thing I'm going to point out.

The entire GTVA fleet pours through the jumpgate in single file, straight into the waiting guns of four destroyers and numerous frigates.

The UEF has only three.

According to the wiki, the Temeraire defected shortly after AoA. That may be bad info, but whether it’s three or four, defending a system with only one node leading in is a VERY strong position. Although, in response to MattTheGeek, I had forgotten about meson bombs.

Still, taking into account the GTVA’s demonstrated skill in precision microjumping, if sending meson bombs through subspace were that easy, the UEF would have zero destroyers.

Technically unfeasible, not merely because the GTVA vastly outnumbers the UEF and is l33t at blockading jump nodes, but simply because the UEF ships are designed for situations where supplies are only an intrasystem jump away. Their ships simply can't face the logistic imperatives of operating out of Sol, contrary to GTVA ships. They wouldn't be able to mount any kind of credible offensive toward the GTVA core systems.

I agree completely, hence the disclaimer about divine intervention. In fact, it’s about as likely a GTVA battlegroup trying to make an intersystem jump and instead going on a two-week romp through a Shivan-infested parallel universe, during which one of their pilots discovers a race made of energy and binds his consciousness with a ship.

Simple. GTVA wins the war, and has a firm enough control on the GTVA-side population to reduce the risks and/or extent of potential rebellions, through propaganda and quiet assassinations (remember the BP tech description of the Pegasus ?)

I’ll admit there’s a chance, but the GTVA’s reasons for war are based on the premise of an extremely fractious population that is getting tired of listening to their government already. Propaganda and assassinations are probably not going to keep that population under control.

[Scotty]

One thing that bothers me about this whole thing is the assumption that in the event of total GTVA victory by way of dissolution of the Ubuntu party, that it would resemble in ANY way a police state.  I mean really, we have no indication at all that such would be the case.

More likely, production around Sol is ramped up and geared toward military production to recoup losses suffered on both sides, and the average citizen of Sol votes for General Assembly members instead of whatever they call the elected officials now.  The Ubuntu party is dismantled, and the Elders are removed from power in a best-case peaceful worst-case forced by only minimal violent action fashion.

Jupiter suffers less shock from reintegration, 1) because it's been under GTVA control much longer, and 2) the elements that are most likely to rebel are also most likely to agree with the GTVA's assessment of the inevitable Shivan return.

Mars and Earth suffer much more, both due to size of population and relative peacefulness of the surrounding space compared to Jupiter and the outer planets.  However, best-case, there is no rebellion, mostly because of the perceived attitude that led the GTVA into their first blunder around Neptune: they're mostly peaceful.  Worst-case, you get a rebellion of much smaller intensity than the war that has been raging for a couple years at that point.  Police state and death squads?  Sorry, what?  Hell, if that's absolutely necessary, use what's left of the Fedayeen.  That's what they do anyway.

Back in the rest of the GTVA, massive wave of emigration.  It's pretty much unavoidable.  However, the GTVA can put restrictions on that, much the same way only so many people can immigrate to America every year (which, granted, the way it's done is not the best solution for America now), it's eminently more enforceable in a bottleneck situation like with the Sol jump gate.  Best-case here, you've got a smallish, regulated immigration flow both to and from Sol (people have been cut off for 50+ years.  There's no way NONE of them don't want to leave), a huge and healthy boost to the ailing GTVA economy, and the shipyards to recoup your losses in a few years, tops, assuming the integration of the UEF fleet into the GTVA fleet goes smoothly (i.e., they go quietly and integrate well).  Worst-case, you have a immigrant bottleneck at the node, outer-colonies may rebel, but they'll be fairly minor, and with any sort of Vasudan help, they'll be put down quickly and decisively.  UEF Fleet does not integrate peacefully, and fight a stiff rebellion for several years that goes nowhere and, while painful, ultimately changes nothing.  With the loss of supporting elements like the docks and shipyards the UEF ships absolutely need regular access to in order to function, any rebellion falls apart quickly.  Even a logistics ship will only last them so long, assuming nothing untoward happens to it in the first place.

In summary:
Best-case: UEF surrenders; Ubuntu party dissolved; healthy, regulated migration to and from Sol; massive boost to GTVA economy from shipyards and trade with Sol; resistance from hard-line UEF fleet elements is swiftly crushed in the absense of support facilities; advancement of technologies in a parallel direction to beam technology, allows GTVA to supplement node blockades with effective artillery and direct-fire support.

Worst-case: UEF surrenders; Ubuntu party influence remains, even if party itself is dissolved; migration leads to bottlenecks at Sol node (let's face it, leaving it unregulated would be a colossally retarded move), civil unrest leads to several minor rebellions;  major rebellions still unlikely, and easily put down with support from Vasudan fleets; hard-line UEF fleet elements capture one or more logistics ships before hiding.  They are still destroyed, but after a much longer and painful resistance.

EDIT:  Temeraire defects after AoA?  I think not.  All crews from the ships of the 14th Battlegroup that returned through the portal (which the Temeraire did) were debriefed, then removed to positions far, far away from Sol.  The only outright defections from the 14th were the Duke, Labouchere, and Solace.

[LordPomposity]

The police state comment wasn't about removing the Ubuntu party from power; it was about what would be necessary if the GTVA wanted to eradicate the Ubuntu philosophy completely to prevent a resurgence/spreading. I'm not of the opinion that that scenario is even remotely likely, I was just using it to comment that it would be nigh-impossible to kill Ubuntu as a philosophy. It's incredibly impractical on one hand, and the GTVA lacks the stomach for it on the other.

Excellent point about Jupiter.

As for controlled immigration after conquering Sol...well, one of the assumptions that informed the GTVA's decision to go to war is that its people were chomping at the bit to get back to Earth, i.e. rebellion was inevitable in the event of restricted migration with the UEF and GTVA as separate entities. If quotas are put in place, the agitators need only create the impression that the GTVA is playing favorites in how migration slots are assigned. In fact, resentment would be easier to keep in check if the GTVA could pin the blame on the UEF. Which, if there is no UEF, it can't.

As for the Temeraire, methinks the Journey's End article is in need of some [citation needed] tags.

[Luis Dias]

They could have had lied to the public and declared the Sol jump node "impossible" to repair, but "without giving up" (fill in all the possible political lies one can come up with).

[Scotty]

Regulated != Restricted.  Current U.S. immigration policy allows for a number of immigrants from each foreign country equal to a percentage of the foreign population living in the U.S. at the time of the last census.

In this case, I think the regulated flow of migration would be something like that.  A number of migrants from worlds in the GTVA, and as many people that want to leave Sol as they want.  Not a pitifully small number that would enrage everybody, but not veritable floods of people.  Worth remembering is that illegal immigration is much less of an issue in space, with only one entrance to Sol than it is in the modern-day U.S.

With that in mind, and a sensible immigration policy, the GTVA can strike a happy balance between immigration and rebellions; enough to discourage large-scale revolts, but not enough to pull the rug out of colonies' economies.  The GTVA can always deal with a single system, especially if the Vasudans are helping.

The main causes of the NTF Rebellion are gone, namely 1) Bosch, that magnificent bastard, and 2) revocation of a Vasudan alliance in favor of a return to Earth.  The two are no longer perceived as mutually exclusive, and a charismatic, disgruntled fleet admiral will have a much harder time rallying the masses on a message of racist seperatism, especially now that the Vasudans have taken a stance of supporting the Terran portion of the GTVA, at least after the Second Shivan Incursion.

[Droid803]

I have a hard time believing the GTVA or UEF would resort to scorched Earth tactics

But sir, they already have.
The UEF has blown up their own infrastructure to deny it to the GTVA (TBI).

[Luis Dias]

There are other options as well. The economic bliss of Sol could translate to a kind of a Marshall plan to the outer colonies, something that would increase massively the hope of the peoples in these places, also preventing them to completely abandon the outposts and gain confidence in humanity.

Perhaps people are too pessimistic here. We could be in the brink of a second joint terran and vasudan "golden age" with an economic boom that was fueled by the exchange of different technologies that were developed in two very separated paths of research.

All the political problems that people see in either GTVA's victory or UEF's, or the stalemate is more easily solved by the combination of simple propaganda and the usual human trait of forgetting what happened last week, so inconsistencies are easily forgiven .

[LordPomposity]

It might be a regulation from the perspective of the GTVA government; to opponents of that government, it would appear a restriction.

The point I'm trying to make here is that regulated migration to and from Sol would have been just possible with Sol still under UEF jurisdiction. The GTVA took one look at Sol and decided that if they tried to keep immigration contained to non-damaging levels, they'd have a rebellion on their hands that would make the NTF look like a gaggle of tea partiers holding signs about a birth certificate. Hence, the war. With the war over, assuming the GTVA wins (a safe assumption, unless Byrne, Bei, Bei, and friends have something absolutely brilliant up their sleeves), the desire to immigrate is going to be just as strong as it was before and the problem will remain unsolved. The only difference is that the GTVA will have to say to those not approved for immigration "sorry, we're keeping you out" rather than "those big mean UEF people are keeping you out". The former seems more likely to foment rebellion than the latter.

You could, of course, argue that it's absurd to think that either would foment rebellion, and many have, but the GTVA security council apparently has good reason to think rebellion's a real threat. Either that or they're complete idiots, which they've given pretty ample evidence for in FS2.

As for immigration from Sol out to the GTVA worlds, the indiscriminate orbital nuking of Luna probably quenched a lot of UEF citizens' enthusiasm to go out and mingle with the GTVA.

[Scotty]

Aha, but the GTVA still had to contend with the fundamentally imcompatible Ubuntu movement.  Important to realize that while immigration would be regulated/restricted, information still flows freely.  Unless the GTVA is prepared to completely stop all traffic from Sol, which is a bad idea both economically and politically.  By all the simulations the GTVA ran before the decision to send the 14th through (the only evidence we have on the matter), it was impossible for the GTVA to not invade Sol from their point of view.  In a damned-if-we-do, more-damned-if-we-don't scenario, the only appreciable variable becomes the outcome of the invasion.

[Luis Dias]

I don't see that ideological problem as "problematic". Look at laboratory Earth. Since WW2, America had to face the problem of communism which was deemed too dangerous and appealling for the masses. How did they solve it? Not by war. By propaganda and persecution. McCarthyism, etc. "Commies" eat babies, don't you know?

[The E]

I have a hard time believing the GTVA or UEF would resort to scorched Earth tactics

But sir, they already have.
The UEF has blown up their own infrastructure to deny it to the GTVA (TBI).

But there's a difference between blowing up an easily-replacable space station, and carpet-bombing population centers.

I don't see that ideological problem as "problematic". Look at laboratory Earth. Since WW2, America had to face the problem of communism which was deemed too dangerous and appealling for the masses. How did they solve it? Not by war. By propaganda and persecution. McCarthyism, etc. "Commies" eat babies, don't you know?

Except the situation is a tiny bit different.
Unlike Communism, Ubuntu works. Ubuntu citizens are more healthy, happier, and more prosperous than GTVA citizens. In terms of cold, hard, economic facts, Ubuntu ensures a higher standard of living than the GTVA. You cannot propaganda that away, especially if you have no real way of controlling the population (remember, the population of Sol is equal to the population of the entire terran half of the GTVA). Propaganda simply doesn't work when the thing you're using propaganda agianst has been proven to work for decades.

In addition, the GTVA wants Sol for its economic strength. That strength comes from the policies set by the Ubuntu Council of Elders. In other words, you can't get the economy without at least acknowledging the ideology that makes it work so well.

I stand by my initial point. Whoever wins this conflict will have to adopt so many characteristics of the other side that what comes out in the end will be a completely different entity.

[Black Wolf]

There seems to be some big assumptions here, that somehow the population of the GTVA is a powder keg, ready to rebel at the drop of a hat. How many policies have you disagreed with from your own governments? Consider the Iraq war, for example - millions of people in the US, UK and Australia were against it. Zero rebellions.

Unless there's something in the BP fluff that mentions something about the GTVA being primed to rebel (which is pretty stupid anyway, given the constant Shivan threat hanging over their heads), then I don't think it's reasonable to just jump to rebellion, except maybe at the ballot box.

[crizza]

Hm...Sol is something like the promised land, I get that...
but this reminds me of east and west Germany...
UEF people will move out, no matter who wins, to secure their fortunes while those living in GTVA systems just want to see earth...
Another point is the thing, that the Ubuntu philosophie undermines the GTVA...they held of the GTVA for around 18 month...
And even the council of elder must admit, that the shivans will return one day...
My scenario?
There must be a diplomatic solution, like Ubuntu being something like a...civil system and the GTVA like some sort of...well...Nato.

[Destiny]

The GTVA can win by making lots and lots of meson bombs, then jumping an AWACS out of player reach i.e. 45k, and directing precise meson bomb jumps (it sounds weird when you read it) into the enemy space station, or ship. Losing an AWACS or two is nothing for the GTVA.

Well...the whole idea of Ubuntu can't and must not affect current GTVA policies/stuff/politics. The Shivans. Everything because of the enigmatic race hellbent on the destruction of the Terrans and Vasudans...Shivans. I wonder what the government of the Shivan-

[PsychoLandlord]

The GTVA can win by making lots and lots of meson bombs, then jumping an AWACS out of player reach i.e. 45k, and directing precise meson bomb jumps (it sounds weird when you read it) into the enemy space station, or ship. Losing an AWACS or two is nothing for the GTVA.

Except that Meson Bombs tend to take a decent amount of time to work themselves up to detonation. Used in a situation where a ship had just jumped in? Sure, might possibly work, assuming the target didn't disable, destroy, or contain it before it could be armed and detonated. But it would only work once. And against an intelligent enemy, it would never work offensively.

More in-line with the thread topic, any sort of reintegration of Sol is going to induce radical changes in Humanity and the GTVA at large. But the payoff is a better shot at survival, and by turning this into a military victory, maybe, just maybe, the GTVA can remain the dominant political force of Humanity at the end of the day.

[LordPomposity]

But there's a difference between blowing up an easily-replacable space station, and carpet-bombing population centers.

The GTVA did exactly that to Luna.

Unlike Communism, Ubuntu works. Ubuntu citizens are more healthy, happier, and more prosperous than GTVA citizens. In terms of cold, hard, economic facts, Ubuntu ensures a higher standard of living than the GTVA. You cannot propaganda that away, especially if you have no real way of controlling the population (remember, the population of Sol is equal to the population of the entire terran half of the GTVA). Propaganda simply doesn't work when the thing you're using propaganda agianst has been proven to work for decades.

Not necessarily true. The United States of America has objectively a lower life expectancy then most Western European democracies, while at the same time having astronomically higher per-capita healthcare costs. It’s a fact. It’s indisputable. And yet clever propaganda on the part of those with a vested interest in maintaining the current system turned popular opinion against the American people’s own self-interest and undermined last year’s reform efforts. The result was an unambitious bill that lacked the defining characteristics of the objectively superior European healthcare systems.

I probably just doomed the thread to derailment with that, but what the hell.

However, it's true that even the best propaganda won't fool everybody. The question is whether it fools enough people.

I stand by my initial point. Whoever wins this conflict will have to adopt so many characteristics of the other side that what comes out in the end will be a completely different entity.

If the GTVA wins militarily, there’s a decent chance that will happen, and it’s probably the optimal outcome. That said, a large part of the GTVA’s motivation for war was to prevent the spread of Ubuntu, and having conquered Sol they’re probably not going to adopt key elements of Ubuntu without a fight (whether successful or not). The UEF has, as far as I can tell, neither the means nor the desire to take control of GTVA space; their victory condition is kicking the GTVA out of Sol and locking down the node, so they needn’t worry about adapting the GTVA’s philosophies in order to effectively govern new territory. Still, the increase in militarism required to kick the GTVA out would likely leave its marks.

There seems to be some big assumptions here, that somehow the population of the GTVA is a powder keg, ready to rebel at the drop of a hat. How many policies have you disagreed with from your own governments? Consider the Iraq war, for example - millions of people in the US, UK and Australia were against it. Zero rebellions.

Unless there's something in the BP fluff that mentions something about the GTVA being primed to rebel (which is pretty stupid anyway, given the constant Shivan threat hanging over their heads), then I don't think it's reasonable to just jump to rebellion, except maybe at the ballot box.

As far as the trigger-happiness of the GTVA population when it comes to rebellion is concerned, I’m going off what General Battuta said in the post I quoted up top (Battuta: if I’m twisting your words or taking them out of context, please correct me). If they’re willing to rebel over the GTVA not building the gate or not letting them move to the UEF, they’re willing to rebel over a lot of things.

On the matter of the UK, USA, and Australia’s situation vs. that of the GTVA? I think almost all Brits, Americans, and Australians, whether they agree with the war or not, would agree in a heartbeat that they would rather be living in the UK, the USA, or Australia than in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Not necessarily true in the case of the GTVA vs. the UEF. As you said, zero rebellions in the case of those three modern countries. The GTVA has experienced the defection of thousands of personnel, three capital ships, at least one fighter wing, and one of its most decorated flag officers. On top of that, the GTVA's confidence in the loyalty of the officers and crew of one of its most modern and powerful battlegroups is shaken enough that the Security Council elected to keep them as far from the war as possible.

And we’re not really talking about a rebellion in support of the UEF, either. A closer real-world analogy would be the Russian Empire during the Russo-Japanese War and World War I. The Russo-Japanese War was started at least in part as a means of unifying Russia behind a common cause, and backfired terribly when the Russians got their rears handed to them and made the Tsar and his officers look like idiots. A few years later, it wasn’t any measure of sympathy for Russia’s European enemies, but frustration at the government’s mishandling of World War I, that was the last straw in spurring the people to revolution.