[MatthTheGeek]

Given how quickly the Vasudan admiral jumped on believing the nearly-obvious lies Steele spoon-fed him, it looks like he's just waiting for a good reason to actively engage hostilities with the Feds.

[headdie]

given that there was 2 Terran vessels in system at the start means that one is fair game, also the fact that Vassudan ships are increasingly taking part was part of the reason I said capture, the other being the fact that they are non combatants thus under UEF RoE  forcing surrender or capture is the preferred scenario.

[Scotty]

and in all likelihood the chances of them capturing or destroying a logitistics ship after Steele doesn't need to give them one to spring a trap

Been discussed before too. The UEF finding/attacking/capturing a logistic ship wasn't part of Steele's plan, he just had contingencies for such a case and wonderfully managed to turn what should have been a major defeat into an occasion to get the neutral Zods to work for him. If he planned it all along, he wouldn't have arrested rear-admiral Carey for a treason that wouldn't have happened.

And why wouldn't he?  Now Carey is completely off the radar.  For all intents and purposes she doesn't exist anymore.  How much mileage can you get out of an Admiral that no one expects to show up again?  A lot.  How much would the UEF trust information that comes from her?  A lot (it got them a logistics ship, after all).  How much suspicion would it have raised if she wasn't arrested for it?  A lot.

None of which constitutes proof, I'll grant, but there's also no proof that Steele didn't plan it.  I wouldn't put it past him.  Dangle one juicy target to get them overconfident.  Dangle another to spring the trap itself.

[Aesaar]

headdie: Even then, it took 18 months for the UEF to get a decent opportunity to attack one.  It seems very, very unlikely they'll get another such opportunity in the few months they've got left.  Chances are Steele also increased security measures to avoid losing the other one.

[MatthTheGeek]

And why wouldn't he?  Now Carey is completely off the radar.  For all intents and purposes she doesn't exist anymore.  How much mileage can you get out of an Admiral that no one expects to show up again?  A lot.  How much would the UEF trust information that comes from her?  A lot (it got them a logistics ship, after all).  How much suspicion would it have raised if she wasn't arrested for it?  A lot.

None of which constitutes proof, I'll grant, but there's also no proof that Steele didn't plan it.  I wouldn't put it past him.  Dangle one juicy target to get them overconfident.  Dangle another to spring the trap itself.

So, you're suggesting that the UEF knew Carey was the leak, that they knew she got arrested for leaking the Agincourt's jump schedules. And that they believed Carey managed to leak more stuff about the Carthage. From jail.

Allow me to doubt this.

[Scotty]

I'm suggesting that someone in the UEF knows that Carey was the leak.  You quite simply do not make that kind of strategic movement without knowing that your source is reliable, and high enough up to guarantee the intelligence is correct.

I'm suggesting that news does get through the gate sometimes, and that whoever the someone in the UEF who knew it was Carey would also recognize her removal.

I'm suggesting that the intelligence leak was staged by Steele to provide the UEF with a reliable source of intelligence that he could manipulate.

I'm suggesting that Steele knew Carey would do something like that, or that he may have even ordered her to be the leak to feed the UEF the information he wanted to feed them (the low hanging fruit of the logistics vessel).

Following that line of thought, I'm suggesting that the arrest and removal was staged by Steele to make her information appear as genuine as it was possible to be.  Alternate suggestion: the arrest was not staged, but Steele sprung Carey from wherever she was headed.  We know he's prepared to go under the table to get things done.

Assuming the arrest was staged, Steele now has an asset that no one knows he has, that the UEF trusts, and that owes (or at least thinks she owes) him for keeping her from being actually executed for treason.

[headdie]

headdie: Even then, it took 18 months for the UEF to get a decent opportunity to attack one.  It seems very, very unlikely they'll get another such opportunity in the few months they've got left.  Chances are Steele also increased security measures to avoid losing the other one.

And yet what options do the UEF have?  The 1st fleet is committed to protecting Earth and the secret project, and while the 2nd and 3rd fleets are willing to go on the offensive they dont have the ships to do so in a meaningful way and they doubt the secret project has the capability to win the war and to my understanding written off any useful help from Earth, 1st fleet or the elders.  They cant attack any sizable GTVA warship in a meaningful manner, attacking fixed GTVA positions is highly risky so what can they do when sitting on the defensive will eventually lead to defeat?

on the other hand there was a leak from a senior source and while that leak has been plugged it brings up 2 likely scenarios for the UEF to consider.

1. Steele set up a very risky misinformation project, very possible and would fit Steele's profile but gives the UEF little to work with.
2. Dissent is setting into the Tev ranks, this on the other hand would give the UEF a number of avenues to develop intelligence on the GTVA movements as well as opens up weaknesses to propaganda efforts.

While scenario 1 is very likely, scenario 2 can be perused with little risk until physical operations start to be mounted based on that info.  but then seeing as doing nothing is certain defeat in the eyes of the 2nd and 3rd what have they got to loose?

[Aesaar]

headdie: I didn't say it isn't something they'd want to do, only that I don't think they'll be able to.  With their military solutions more or less gone, their best bet is probably to just follow the First Fleet's lead and put their faith in whatever the project is supposed to be.

I think the biggest risk to the Tev offensive is the Vasudans finding out they've been played.  The big inconsistency in the story is how there were Gef forces with a mission to disable the Shepseskaf in preparation for the arrival of a Fed capture team, when the Feds have absolutely no way to know the Vasudans would send a destroyer in the first place.  Maybe it could be explained away, but still.

[Scotty]

Gef forces were there to disable a Vasudan ship.  They probably didn't know it was a destroyer either, or they'd have sent more than just Scimitars in the initial strike.

[Medve]

That's a lot of compounded if-s concerning Admiral Carey. Whatever the case, it became pretty obvious that she's been compromised when the Imperieuse jumped in at the very end. Nobody would trust information coming from that source, especially knowing Steele.

[MatthTheGeek]

I'm suggesting that someone in the UEF knows that Carey was the leak.  You quite simply do not make that kind of strategic movement without knowing that your source is reliable, and high enough up to guarantee the intelligence is correct.

I'm suggesting that news does get through the gate sometimes, and that whoever the someone in the UEF who knew it was Carey would also recognize her removal.

I'm suggesting that the intelligence leak was staged by Steele to provide the UEF with a reliable source of intelligence that he could manipulate.

I'm suggesting that Steele knew Carey would do something like that, or that he may have even ordered her to be the leak to feed the UEF the information he wanted to feed them (the low hanging fruit of the logistics vessel).

Following that line of thought, I'm suggesting that the arrest and removal was staged by Steele to make her information appear as genuine as it was possible to be.  Alternate suggestion: the arrest was not staged, but Steele sprung Carey from wherever she was headed.  We know he's prepared to go under the table to get things done.

Assuming the arrest was staged, Steele now has an asset that no one knows he has, that the UEF trusts, and that owes (or at least thinks she owes) him for keeping her from being actually executed for treason.

So you're maintaining that the UEF trusted the intel about the Carthage, knowing that it was coming from someone they thought was in jail, and was officially a traitor to the GTVA and hence lost all usefulness as a mole. And you see no flaw in that reasoning ?

Because of that, it's simply impossible that the Fed intelligence knew who sent that intel, or DE would never had happened. Which leads to the fact that, since we know Steele is able to build credible enough fake info to deceive the Fed intelligence (or else he wouldn't have been able to take Carey's place after she got arrested), there would be absolutely no reason for Carey to get involved at all in the first intel leak about the Agincourt, if it had been part of Steele's plan. Yet she was the source of that leak. QED.

[Scotty]

I'm talking about the logistics ship, not the Carthage.  The only flaw in that reasoning is that it's not what I'm talking about.   The intelligence source who outed the Carthage is obviously not Carey, because 1) we know that Carey outed the logistics ship and 2) Carey was no longer in place by the time the Carthage intelligence.  Obviously, the two sources cannot be the same person, so your opposing point does not only not apply, it's non-sensical.

During WiH, as a flag officer during the events of Age of Aquarius, Carey was removed from any real activity in the Sol theater.  She is effectively sidelined, taken out of the strategic picture, useless to both sides, etc.  If Steele constructed the entire thing, she is now back in play, and no one knows it.  If Steele trusts her capabilities (or her predictability), that right there is a very good reason to involve her.  He now has a flag officer, blooded against Shivans in a command capacity, and she either owes him, thinks she owes him, or is working with him anyway.  A flag officer that the UEF trusts to support them.

And you don't see any advantage to that?

[Medve]

I'm talking about the logistics ship, not the Carthage.  The only flaw in that reasoning is that it's not what I'm talking about.   The intelligence source who outed the Carthage is obviously not Carey, because 1) we know that Carey outed the logistics ship and 2) Carey was no longer in place by the time the Carthage intelligence.  Obviously, the two sources cannot be the same person, so your opposing point does not only not apply, it's non-sensical.

During WiH, as a flag officer during the events of Age of Aquarius, Carey was removed from any real activity in the Sol theater.  She is effectively sidelined, taken out of the strategic picture, useless to both sides, etc.  If Steele constructed the entire thing, she is now back in play, and no one knows it.  If Steele trusts her capabilities (or her predictability), that right there is a very good reason to involve her.  He now has a flag officer, blooded against Shivans in a command capacity, and she either owes him, thinks she owes him, or is working with him anyway.  A flag officer that the UEF trusts to support them.

And you don't see any advantage to that?

Judging from the Conversations from War in Heaven thread, I'd seriously doubt she'd go against the UEF by her own will, or by Steele forcing/tricking/ordering her. If she did, then only to hurt the GTVA from the inside. Maybe Steele can try to predict/control her indirectly to serve his purpose, but Carey isn't stupid and such a plan would have a huge risk of backfiring.

[Scotty]

And isn't that how Steele plays?  High risk, high reward.  If the Imperieuse had been five minutes later, the Carthage would be a scrap heap and the 2nd Battlegroup would no longer exist in any form.  Up to thirty thousand dead GTVA citizens (depending on how the player flies), and the complete destruction of a destroyer and her escorts.

Instead, Steele crushed the backbone of the last offensively significant UEF fleet, outright destroyed three of the best frigates in the UEF, rendered the last effectively scrap (although granted as a result of escaping), and crushed whatever morale the fleet had left.

High risk, high reward.

[Medve]

The Imperieuse was on time not because of luck, but because that's the way Steele wanted it to be. If you look at his plans, there really isn't that high of a risk involved (I even think this was said in the commentary). It was all planned out and under control. Of course plans have an inherent risk in them, and Steele is more aggressive in this regard, but comparing the risk of, say a random engine failure to giving command authority to someone who's openly your enemy is just not right. It's like comparing chess to russian roulette, and Steele is a lot more chess kinda guy.

[Scotty]

I didn't mention luck because I know it was not luck that dictated the Imperieuse's arrival, just like I didn't say that by having an asset available for use he'd be giving her a fleet command or command authority.

High risk doesn't imply high luck, it implies high cost of failure.  If the Delenda Est trap had failed, the cost of failure would have been gigantic, just as high reward doesn't imply lack of luck, it implies high return on investment.

[Medve]

You missed my point, which was using Carey had an incomparably higher inherent risk than Steele's plans during the campaign. Sure, the stakes were high in Delenda Est, but high stakes =/=  high risk. Risk comes from uncertainty, all of which was probably also covered by contingencies. I've never said high risk implies high luck either, that's just flat-out stupid.

[CT27]

Given how quickly the Vasudan admiral jumped on believing the nearly-obvious lies Steele spoon-fed him, it looks like he's just waiting for a good reason to actively engage hostilities with the Feds.

Do you mean the Vasudan admiral is just trigger happy in general and wants to fight something, or feels the Vasudans should be fighting with their GTVA Terran 'brothers and sisters in arms'?

[Medve]

I found that strange, the Vasudans were supposed to be ideologically a lot closer to the UEF than to the GTVA, and Khonsu was quite specific about not entering this war because that would slow their preparations for the upcoming darkness.

[Drogoth]

I found that strange, the Vasudans were supposed to be ideologically a lot closer to the UEF than to the GTVA, and Khonsu was quite specific about not entering this war because that would slow their preparations for the upcoming darkness.

.... Maybe theres a sect of Vasudans that resent the control the emperor wrested from the Parliament at the dissolution of the PVE?

Vasudan Admiral in on it working with Steele?

on the topic of carey.

The briefing about the Carthage says "this is the same source that gave us the Agincourt, and He or She has come through for us again". Carey is either the source for both or for neither.

A) Maybe the psychological profile of lopez and operational posture of the Carthage in the coming weeks were provided in the original intel dump and Netreba and Calder chose to focus on the Agincourt first? They didn't necessarily have to share their intel with the wargods.. the best way to keep a secret is to keep it's audience small. Also the wargods needed a big op to prove they had the balls to take down the Carthage.

OR Maybe they didn't choose to wait, but this operational posture change was planned weeks in advance, and this was when it began, again, with them coming aware in the original intel dump.

B ) I haven't read the conversation bits in awhile, but WHEN was Carey arrested? i remember the entry referenced "the ****ing jump schedules" but maybe they only discovered her treason AFTER the carthage, and that discovery led them to the Agincourt discovery? Spitballing here, but it would mean Carey was still an intelligence asset to the UEF at carthage time.

I still think Steele had it planned. Carey may not be a WILLING double agent, but Steele may have played her like a fiddle.

I, as a Tev lover, prefer to think she IS a double agent because she knows the Tevs are the best, and the whole arrest was staged, but I think the first scenario is more likely haha.