[MatthTheGeek]

Do you mean the Vasudan admiral is just trigger happy in general and wants to fight something, or feels the Vasudans should be fighting with their GTVA Terran 'brothers and sisters in arms'?

What I mean is that it's unlikely that every single Vasudan shares 100% the opinions of the Emperor. I wouldn't be surprised if, especially among the military, many Vasudans believe that the war should be ended sooner rather than later, because of how vulnerable they are against a potential Third Shivan Incursion as long as the war is raging.

The Zod admiral obviously received orders to remain neutral in the conflict and only defend the logistic operations, without offensively supporting the war effort. It is entirely possible that he disagrees with those orders but, as a good military officer, carries them out anyway. That doesn't mean that he won't take every opportunity to hurt the Feds wherever it doesn't directly contradict with his orders.

I'm talking about the logistics ship, not the Carthage.  The only flaw in that reasoning is that it's not what I'm talking about.   The intelligence source who outed the Carthage is obviously not Carey, because 1) we know that Carey outed the logistics ship and 2) Carey was no longer in place by the time the Carthage intelligence.  Obviously, the two sources cannot be the same person, so your opposing point does not only not apply, it's non-sensical.

But Steele proved he was perfectly able to feed misinformation to the UEF Intelligence without Carey, since he feed em the intel on the Carthage after she got arrested. So, if the Agincourt was part of his plan, he'd never have needed Carey in the first place, he'd just have sent the misinformation directly.

During WiH, as a flag officer during the events of Age of Aquarius, Carey was removed from any real activity in the Sol theater.  She is effectively sidelined, taken out of the strategic picture, useless to both sides, etc.  If Steele constructed the entire thing, she is now back in play, and no one knows it.  If Steele trusts her capabilities (or her predictability), that right there is a very good reason to involve her.  He now has a flag officer, blooded against Shivans in a command capacity, and she either owes him, thinks she owes him, or is working with him anyway.  A flag officer that the UEF trusts to support them.

And you don't see any advantage to that?

So, noone knows she's back in business. Yet the UEF trusts her, because of the Agincourt. So, they know she's back in business. Your argument contradicts itself.

If the UEF knew the Agincourt source was Carey, they'd never have trusted the Carthage intel after she got arrested. Which means the UEF never knew it was Carey. Which means Steele never needed Carey in the first place if it was all part of his plan, he's perfectly able to fake the intel himself.

Which is obviously not the case, since we know Carey is the source of the Agincourt intel. Hence the Agincourt wasn't part of his plan. QED.

[Scotty]

You keep making leaps of logic that are not there.  The UEF trusts information from Carey.  That does not require them to know of her whereabouts or activites at any given moment.  They don't necessarily need to know she's still a piece on the board.  My argument contradicts nothing.

We still don't know if Carey was arrested before or after she leaked the Carthage's positions.  Here, I'll walk through it point by point.

1a) We are absolutely certain that Carey was the source of the Agincourt intelligence leak.
1b) We are absolutely certain that the intelligence leaks for both the Agincourt and Carthage were the same source. (thanks for that quote, Drogoth, it had slipped my mind)
2) This means that Carey must have been both leaks; there is not another posibility, because the briefing uses a singular third person pronoun; there is no they.

3a) We are absolutely certain that Steele formulated a plan to remove the Wargods from meaningful consideration in Sol.
3b) We are absolutely certain that the Carthage attack was part of Steele's plan.
3c) The capture of the Agincourt instilled in the Wargods a sense of confidence and invincibility, which was vital to Steele's plan to get them to attack a significant target (of his choosing).
4) This means that both information links worked toward the proper execution of Steele's plan.
4a) The reasonable assumption is that both leaks were deliberate.

5a) Carey committed treason against the GTVA by leaking intelligence to the UEF (points 1a, 1b and 2).
5b) The punishment for treason before a trial in the GTVA is to be stripped of rank and citizenship in the GTVA, and await summary court martial and/or board of inquiry(if I remember my terms right).
5c) The punishment for a guilty verdict on the charge of treason against the GTVA is highly likely to be execution.  If not that, rotting in a correctional facility for the rest of one's natural life.
6) Carey is no longer a player in the Sol theater.

7a) Because of 2, 4, and 4a, it is likely that Carey either deliberately acted against the UEF, or was manipulated into acting against the UEF by some other entity, most likely Steele.
7b) Because of 1b), in which both intelligence leaks were accurate (outcomes aside), the UEF trusts intelligence from this source, which, because of point 2, must be Carey.
7c) Carey's arrest indicates that, whatever the other outcomes, the intelligence leaks were legitimate and led to damage to the GTVA.
8) The UEF will likely listen to any further intelligence from Carey.

9a) Because of 6, Carey has been removed from her post and any post that could influence the Sol theater.
9b) Steele knows this.
9c) The UEF knows this.
9d) Steele, just as any GTVA service member, knows the punishment for treason.
9e) Steele has been known to conduct under-the-table operations to secure an outcome favorable to him.
9f) Rescuing Carey from execution and/or a correctional facility puts Carey in Steele's debts.
9g) Carey is a person of strong morals and integrity (point 5a).
9h) Steele does not ignore assets that could give him an advantage.
9i) Carey is either predictable or under orders to betray the GTVA (points 4 and 4a)
10) Saving Carey, either legally or illegally, gives Steele another piece on the board, and one he already knows how to use, and further one that is in his debt, personally.

11a) Steele strives to use all tools in his arsenal to their greatest effectiveness.
11b) Per point 10, Carey is a tool in Steele's arsenal.
11c) Per point 8, the UEF will likely listen to any further intelligence from Carey.
12) Steele can use Carey to feed the UEF information that will improve his effectiveness.

QED.

[The E]

One little thing here is that you're assuming that the UEF knows that the source for this Intel was Carey. This may not necessarily be true; Given the general assumption of people in BP not being completely stupid, the assumption that Carey used a host of proxys and cutouts to deliver info to the UEF (if only by ordering information to be placed in places where the UEF was known to have access to) is also rather logical.

It should also be assumed that the Carthage stuff was leaked deliberately in order to bring out the desired outcome; whether this information was placed into the conduit on Steele's orders, or let through as part of a GTVA Intel sting op is immaterial, really. The end result in both cases is that Admiral Carey has been arrested pending court martial for treason against the GTVA; she is very definitely behind very real bars at this point.
Whether Steele has enough clout (or, for that matter, interest) to rehabilitate her remains to be seen.

[Scotty]

That reminds me: for the purposes of that exercise, I'm assuming Steele is willing to use means both legitmate and/or illegitimate to acquire Carey.  Naturally, such a logical exercise isn't proof of anything, and Steele could easily just leave her to rot.

Using a squadron of "destroyed" Pegasus fighters to ambush her prison convoy and "liberate" her and perhaps a few dozen/hundred other criminals to make it look like the strike wasn't targeted specifically at her would be an interesting way to handle it.  We know Steele has those assets available, after all, and if they're official listed as destroyed, no one is likely to come looking for Steele's head.

[MatthTheGeek]

1a) We are absolutely certain that Carey was the source of the Agincourt intelligence leak.
1b) We are absolutely certain that the intelligence leaks for both the Agincourt and Carthage were the same source. (thanks for that quote, Drogoth, it had slipped my mind)
2) This means that Carey must have been both leaks; there is not another posibility, because the briefing uses a singular third person pronoun; there is no they.

There's already a major issue at that point : the UEF thinks both sources are the same. However, Carey is in jail at that point. And the UEF doesn't know Carey is the source to begin with (or DE wouldn't have happened, since Carey lost all credibility as a source when she got jailed). Steele leaked the intel for the Carthage, making it look like it was from the same source. And the UEF Intelligence bought it.

Since we know that Carey was the source for the first leak, and that Carey was in jail by the time of the second leak, then both leaks can't come from the same source. UEF intelligence was just tricked into thinking it was.

Which brings us back to square 1 : since Steele is able to fake credible enough misinformation to the UEF, if the Agincourt was part of his plan, he wouldn't have needed to involve Carey at all for the Agincourt leak. Which leads us, again, to the conclusion that, since Carey is the source of the Agincourt leak, the Agincourt wasn't part of Steele's plan.

[headdie]

From an everything is as it seems perspective.

Why is everyone assuming Carey's imprisonment for treason in some way renders information supplied to the UEF untrustworthy from their perspective?

If anything the arrest for treason reinforces the idea the Carey has turned against the GTVA and even if the arrest is made before Carey can leak the info is it too much of a push for a officer loyal to the admiral to forward the information?  Also there is no indication that the GTVA knew exactly what had been leaked only that there was one.

In addition we know that Steele is paranoid in his contingency planning so knowing there was a leak in his command will in all likely hood have quietly put the Imperieuse on alert to rescue any significant assets that would be likely targets for the Wargods, especially after the Agincourt fiasco.

Thus the trap seen in DE is in place without needing to know the exact Wargod Target before they attack.



From a Steele planed it all perspective.

Why is everyone assuming Carey's imprisonment for treason in some way renders information supplied to the UEF untrustworthy from their perspective?

If anything the arrest for treason reinforces the idea the Carey has turned against the GTVA and even if the arrest is made before Carey can leak the info is it too much of a push for a officer loyal to the admiral to forward the information?

There are many ways Steele can fabricate the whole scenario, even the loss of the Agincourt could be part of a plan to draw out aggressive elements of the UEF navy such as the Wargods.  Steele would have direct access to knowledge of every ship in system and transiting to and from because of needing to plan his strategy as theater commander.  Now here is the IF on it was all a ploy if the Vasudan logistics ship was on the arrival schedule before the Agincourt mission (especially if the Agincourt was due to rotate back to DS) then it would not be a massive loss as a replacement was going to arrive soon.  Now from the forces committed under this scenario I would suggest that Steele was expecting to retain the Agincourt, but then high risk is how Steele plays.  The UEF success of the mission serves 2 purposes, 1 it establishes the intel "source", secondly it boosts the confidence of the UEF enough to commit to DE.  when DE comes around, I think that Steele was planning for the Wargods to commit in full sooner so that the losses of the Carthage group would be less.  While DE goes less well than anticipated it serves its purpose and the only real UEF Hunter Killer group is ripped apart which will reduce the risk of Steele heavily committing his forces, and UEF trust in turned GTVA officers for intel is damaged.




I suspect the real situation falls somewhere between the two scenarios

[LordPomposity]

We also don't know that the UEF is aware that Carey has been arrested. The GTVA should have pretty tight control on what information gets to Sol, even assuming that Carey's arrest was a public affair (which there's a decent chance it wasn't).

[Scotty]

1a) We are absolutely certain that Carey was the source of the Agincourt intelligence leak.
1b) We are absolutely certain that the intelligence leaks for both the Agincourt and Carthage were the same source. (thanks for that quote, Drogoth, it had slipped my mind)
2) This means that Carey must have been both leaks; there is not another posibility, because the briefing uses a singular third person pronoun; there is no they.

There's already a major issue at that point : the UEF thinks both sources are the same. However, Carey is in jail at that point. And the UEF doesn't know Carey is the source to begin with (or DE wouldn't have happened, since Carey lost all credibility as a source when she got jailed).

Two things: 1) we have no other confirmation or refutation from any other canon source than the briefing which mentions a singular third person pronoun as their source.  It is one person.  The first time was Carey, therefore the second time must be Carey.  Prove it wrong.  Until then, I'm going to assume it's the same person because that's what all indications point to.

2) Wut?  Carey lost credibility as a source when she got jailed?  How did you arrive at that conclusion?  If the leaks hadn't been credible, she wouldn't have been jailed.  If the leaks didn't hurt the GTVA, she wouldn't have been jailed.  She was jailed.  Therefore, the leaks were both credible and hurt the GTVA.  Why would her credibility change based on a confirmation of the information provided?

[MatthTheGeek]

If anything the arrest for treason reinforces the idea the Carey has turned against the GTVA and even if the arrest is made before Carey can leak the info is it too much of a push for a officer loyal to the admiral to forward the information?

Yes it is. In the case of treason and classified intelligence leak, you can be sure that, as soon as the mole is found and arrested, everyone remotely in contact with the mole will be under heavy surveillance by the GTVI.

Also there is no indication that the GTVA knew exactly what had been leaked only that there was one.

Yes there is. Right here.

"Abrogated? 'Abrogated'? You gave them the ****ing jump schedules, you traitorous piece of ****. There were ten thousand people in that - "

Two things: 1) we have no other confirmation or refutation from any other canon source than the briefing which mentions a singular third person pronoun as their source.  It is one person.  The first time was Carey, therefore the second time must be Carey.  Prove it wrong.  Until then, I'm going to assume it's the same person because that's what all indications point to.

That briefing is told from the perspective of the UEF. They believe the source is the same. If everything said in those briefings was true, the Imperieuse would have been in DS during DE. But we both know that not the case. The UEF was mistaken about the Imperieuse just as they were mistaken about both leaks coming from the same source, since Carey was in jail.

2) Wut?  Carey lost credibility as a source when she got jailed?  How did you arrive at that conclusion?  If the leaks hadn't been credible, she wouldn't have been jailed.  If the leaks didn't hurt the GTVA, she wouldn't have been jailed.  She was jailed.  Therefore, the leaks were both credible and hurt the GTVA.  Why would her credibility change based on a confirmation of the information provided?

When I said "Carey lost credibility as a source", I meant "The UEF can't trust whatever is coming from that source anymore if they know it was Carey and she is in jail". If she got jailed for treason, you can be sure the GTVI is all over the case. In Intelligence jargon, the source is now "compromised".

[Scotty]

Two things: 1) we have no other confirmation or refutation from any other canon source than the briefing which mentions a singular third person pronoun as their source.  It is one person.  The first time was Carey, therefore the second time must be Carey.  Prove it wrong.  Until then, I'm going to assume it's the same person because that's what all indications point to.

That briefing is told from the perspective of the UEF. They believe the source is the same. If everything said in those briefings was true, the Imperieuse would have been in DS during DE. But we both know that not the case. The UEF was mistaken about the Imperieuse just as they were mistaken about both leaks coming from the same source, since Carey was in jail.

In the absence of a refutation that actually carries evidence behind it (the Imperieuse showed up at Delenda Est, that's clear evidence saying that the single point of the briefing was wrong; nothing is ever brought up to signify that the intelligence source changes or was not who they thought it was), I fail to see how you can declare that the UEF was mistaken without any real evidence to the support that claim.  The briefing very specifically mentions one person.  Find some actual evidence to refute that.

[headdie]

As i said at the end of my post, The truth is probably in between the two scenarios.  Also I was not aware of that thread.

[MatthTheGeek]

In the absence of a refutation that actually carries evidence behind it (the Imperieuse showed up at Delenda Est, that's clear evidence saying that the single point of the briefing was wrong; nothing is ever brought up to signify that the intelligence source changes or was not who they thought it was), I fail to see how you can declare that the UEF was mistaken without any real evidence to the support that claim.  The briefing very specifically mentions one person.  Find some actual evidence to refute that.

I already have. Carey being in jail, as confirmed by E a few posts above.

[NGTM-1R]

I already have. Carey being in jail, as confirmed by E a few posts above.

Assumptions necessary for this to count.

The UEF knows that Carey is jail at the time they were operating on this information.

The GTVA is able to instantly invalidate all the information that Carey had access to.

The second one in particular is painfully unlikely.

[headdie]

As stated the UEF only believed the source was the same.  It probably wouldn't have taken much for a GTVA intelligence team to fake the message as it was probably either a text file or a prerecorded message.

[Damage]

As stated the UEF only believed the source was the same.  It probably wouldn't have taken much for a GTVA intelligence team to fake the message as it was probably either a text file or a prerecorded message.

I was about to single this out but you beat me to it.  Isn't it wholly possible that Steele (or someone acting under his orders) could've used the already existing path of cutouts or dead drops or random e-mail spam to pass along bad intel for the UEF to misinterpret and send their elite frigate/fighter hit team out to get massacred?

[MatthTheGeek]

It's not wholly possible. It's exactly what happened.

[Damage]

I know, it just seemed like the idea was being ignored.

[Drogoth]

Or

As I stated before, the Carthage intel didn't necessarily have to come RIGHT before Delenda Est. It could have been in the Agincourt leak, and an opportunity to use it didn't happen until DE.

Kind of neatly ties up the whole 'same source but is carey still credible stuff'

Imperiuse goes on alert once the Tevs become aware of the leak (sometime between Aristei and DE) and jumps in to bail out the carthage.

[QuakeIV]

I think its possible that the intel leak was legit, and steele was secretly keeping the Imperieusse (however you spell it) in reserve for some other big op.  Carey would have thought the Imperieusse was in delta serpentis like just about everyone else, and Steele had something else in mind when he put the Imperieuse in reserve in secret.

The Carthage was about to be reduced to slag so he was forced to deploy the Imperieusse to come to the rescue.  He decided to hold off on deploying until the last second to bag as many enemy warships as possible because he is a magnificent bastard type character.

Myself I felt like the Imperieusse was overkill for the situation and that he had bigger things in mind for it considering how quickly and thoroughly it was able to obliterate the 'screening' kamikaze team.  Dont you think if he could have he would have just sent some of his more advanced corvettes into DE and instead sent the imperieusse to kill a solaris or something?

[X3N0-Life-Form]

Thing is, as I understood it, every other GTVA asset was already sort of tied up elsewhere, making the Imperieuse pretty much the only ship capable of saving the Carthage's rear-end by itself, with the Hydra being the only other vessel available apart from the Imperieuse, which by itself wouldn't have been enough to stop the Wargods.