[Luis Dias]

We are not saying the Gate caused a problem just that it has hampered recovery and was perhaps a project better suited for a later date or taken at a slower pace to allow other areas of the Terran economy more space to recover.

That's the thing: I completely disagree with that assessment. If the problem of the economy is one of Depression (as in depicted in BP canon), the Sol Jump Gate is the perfect economy kickstarter you can possibly have. As I have argued, there is no "hampered recovery" in this project. That's the very idea that I am arguing against.

Bringing up Germany is useful a point of comparison, when the Berlin wall came down, Germany was reunited which caused a serious problem in that East Germany was economicaly mauled in the process of comunism and the region reverting to capitalism to the point that even today the region is still struggling to recover decades later and that is an area of one of the most prosperous nations in Europe.

That's a *whole* different beast. And the best analogy to what happened in Germany in 1990s BPversewise, is exactly the reunion of the GTVA space (to which I would compare to the East side, militaristic, command-economy-like) to the Sol space (to which I would compare to the more liberal West side). The berlin wall stopped Easterners to flee to the more liberal westside. The irony in BP is that it was the command-economy that decided to build the gate that linked the two economies, and now they realize the danger to their own regime.

The Berlin wall fell peacefully. In BP, not so peacefully.

[-Norbert-]

The problem, as I see it, wasn't that they build the portal, but that they concentrated on it so much that they ignored or overlooked the other problems, so while it helped to mitigate the problems, it is the reason why the high ups didn't adress other problems.
Without the portal, they might have been forced to adress those and it would likely have worked out better (just look at the Vasudans). Of course if they had adressed those problems in addition to building the portal (maybe at a slower pace?) it would have been the best, but that obviously didn't happen.

As for the WW1 example: Just because Germany managed it, doesn't mean it's either easy or a sure way. Take North Korea for example. That country has one of the largest militaries in the world, but just look at how bad the population has it. Building up the military ALONE is not enough to make a strong economy with wealthy, well fed people. And from what little we know, it looks as if the GTVA did just that.... build up the military and the portal to the exclusion of everything else.

I guess you could say they build the kickstarter, but then failed to follow up on it, which let the economy drop back into the dirt.

[headdie]

We are not saying the Gate caused a problem just that it has hampered recovery and was perhaps a project better suited for a later date or taken at a slower pace to allow other areas of the Terran economy more space to recover.

That's the thing: I completely disagree with that assessment. If the problem of the economy is one of Depression (as in depicted in BP canon), the Sol Jump Gate is the perfect economy kickstarter you can possibly have. As I have argued, there is no "hampered recovery" in this project. That's the very idea that I am arguing against.

short term yes, but we are now 18+ months past that point and compared to what it took to build it, maintaining it will probably be a fraction of the effort/materials, so the work force required to build it then have to find work elsewhere undoing the economic good it did, where as a ship yard which I imagine would take something on the order of the same time and effort to construct then uses similar skill sets and probably similar resource/effort levels used in its construction to operate so is a more long term solution.  also each of the ships produced need to be crewed and maintained which again takes time and materials so the economic effect of that ship yard is then multiplied relative to each ship it builds.

edit
better wording

[Luis Dias]

Norbert,

Yeah, that makes some sense.

The whole "there was a war and after it there was a massive depression" still doesn't ring true though.

I've never seen historically a case where after a war a massive depression occurred. Even countries in complete shambles (and remember, GTVA was not "in shambles" except for Capella) do not experience "depression". They experience a massive recession in GDP output in that precise moment, and then there's this massive recovery happening (especially if you have millions of Capella people entering the rest of the economy).

One could argue that the military build up was necessary to prevent hundreds of millions of refugees' resources to be wasted in slams, unemployment, and poverty camps...

@headdie,

Thing is, under a Keynesian viewpoint that assessment is irrelevant. Let's put some imaginary numbers to help us out debating this further.

Imagine that before Capella, the total GDP output of the human side of the GTVA was 10.000 gazilladollars. After Capella, it went down to 7.000 gazilladollars, massive social issues, violence up the charts and so on.

Now imagine that you, to work out all these social problems, unemployment and give the people a vision to hope for you decide to build the Sol Gate. This creates employment, social peace, stability in the face of chaos. This project takes a massive 2.000 gazilladollars per year. That's 28% of the economy right there. I'm probably exagerating here, this figure is ludicrous, but let's have it.

Now, you are absolutely right saying "Now imagine this 28%, when the gate is finished, wiped out from the economy, we have the problem again". No, because the economy starts to inflate and expand. 18 years with a 5% increase in nominal gazilladollars (I would imagine a far more speedy recovery but let's have this small number instead), you'll end up with an economy worth 17.000 gazilladollars. The percentage of the sol jump gate is now much lower in its percentage (11%).

You don't have to destroy it entirely too. You can do what the british did post world war 2: start the NHS.

[The E]

I've never seen historically a case where after a war a massive depression occurred.

Historically speaking, humanity has not met an Outside Context Problem on the scale of the Shivans before (with apologies to Iain Banks) Sure, we had our own minor OCPs in history, but those were different in so far as they could be reasoned with.

[Luis Dias]

I've never seen historically a case where after a war a massive depression occurred.

Historically speaking, humanity has not met an Outside Context Problem on the scale of the Shivans before (with apologies to Iain Banks) Sure, we had our own minor OCPs in history, but those were different in so far as they could be reasoned with.

Right, I don't see the argurment in what you are writing, perhaps just the beginning of it*. We can say that, for instance in post-capella GTVA universe, there were no Shivans lying around making all kinds of post-war chaotic ramblings in the rest of the GTVA space. The rest of the space, and specially planets, was nearly untouched.

Take Germany post WW2 for instance. 2 million german women raped by the alliance soldiers (mostly Russian). All cities carpet-bombed, everything burned.


*We could discuss the psychological ramifications of the existence of a doomsday species on the brink of destroying the entirety of GTVA in another single encounter. That's also interesting. But wouldn't Vasudans experience the same thing then?

[headdie]

Norbert,

Yeah, that makes some sense.

The whole "there was a war and after it there was a massive depression" still doesn't ring true though.

I've never seen historically a case where after a war a massive depression occurred. Even countries in complete shambles (and remember, GTVA was not "in shambles" except for Capella) do not experience "depression". They experience a massive recession in GDP output in that precise moment, and then there's this massive recovery happening (especially if you have millions of Capella people entering the rest of the economy).

One could argue that the military build up was necessary to prevent hundreds of millions of refugees' resources to be wasted in slams, unemployment, and poverty camps...

@headdie,

Thing is, under a Keynesian viewpoint that assessment is irrelevant. Let's put some imaginary numbers to help us out debating this further.

Imagine that before Capella, the total GDP output of the human side of the GTVA was 10.000 gazilladollars. After Capella, it went down to 7.000 gazilladollars, massive social issues, violence up the charts and so on.

Now imagine that you, to work out all these social problems, unemployment and give the people a vision to hope for you decide to build the Sol Gate. This creates employment, social peace, stability in the face of chaos. This project takes a massive 2.000 gazilladollars per year. That's 28% of the economy right there. I'm probably exagerating here, this figure is ludicrous, but let's have it.

Now, you are absolutely right saying "Now imagine this 28%, when the gate is finished, wiped out from the economy, we have the problem again". No, because the economy starts to inflate and expand. 18 years with a 5% increase in nominal gazilladollars (I would imagine a far more speedy recovery but let's have this small number instead), you'll end up with an economy worth 17.000 gazilladollars. The percentage of the sol jump gate is now much lower in its percentage (11%).

You don't have to destroy it entirely too. You can do what the british did post world war 2: start the NHS.

thats why I say it is a short term benefit, yes 18 years is a long time and while a shipyard might have reduced effect because it dosnt have the same boost to the populations state of mind but a shipyard lasts as long as their are orders which is potentially hundreds of years or more, not only that but each ship built has it's own small influence, tiny in its own but it adds up.

So yes the gate is a better kickstart but it's long term impact is limited. 

The gate also has other forseable problems though such as the UEF war, now there was no real way to assess the likelyhood or form this would take beforehand but a war has always been a potential outcome of renewed contact, in this case the gate then harms the economy in lost lives, destroyed ships, damaged infrastructue (which while minimised has not been totaly avoided), destroyed homes, etc and the cost of rebuilding.  Another fair probability outcome would be one in which the system has shot itself to pieces in which case you have the potential for a large population with little space fairing infrastructure and limited industrial base remaining which again would in effect undo the economic benefit

[General Battuta]

While the gate might be a good economic investment in the short run, I don't see it as much of an engine-builder in and of itself in the long run. Unless it enables some new kind of trade or commerce or other interaction (ha) it's just a big monument.

It sounds absurd to say that, since clearly the gate isn't just a big monument, but my point is that it's not quite the same as putting the same amount of money into generalized corporate and infrastructure development.

[Phantom Hoover]

Well, for one thing, the GTVA now has their own Knossos which can presumably be moved. Even given the risks of exploration in a Shivan-infested universe, there are still canonical unstable nodes which it could be moved to.

[Luis Dias]

While the gate might be a good economic investment in the short run, I don't see it as much of an engine-builder in and of itself in the long run. Unless it enables some new kind of trade or commerce or other interaction (ha) it's just a big monument.

It sounds absurd to say that, since clearly the gate isn't just a big monument, but my point is that it's not quite the same as putting the same amount of money into generalized corporate and infrastructure development.

But wasn't that the whole point? By bridging the two economies, a vast potential wealth would unleash by the sudden communication of two very distinct but advanced civilizations that had a lot of different technologies and advances to share and thus improve each side dramatically.

The Sol Gate was the ultimate infrastructure. It wasn't like building pyramids.

However, there is a point to be made regarding pyramids and white elephants in general. While better to use those resources in "useful things", one should remember that there is much more in economics than just "spending stuff in the right things". If the purpose was nothing but to build a pyramid that would take whole swaths of otherwise unemployed people out of the streets, (and then redistributing money to those people), that would alone already been a giant positive for the whole economy.

[NGTM-1R]

Counterpoint: The GTA's economy was Earth. The economic collapse postwar resulted from losing Earth; the Vasudans stepped in to take its place during Reconstruction, which is why their economy recovered much quicker than the Terran one despite suffering effectively identical calamities. Reconnecting Earth to the GTVA's economy stands a chance of undoing much of what the Vasudans have gained.

[Luis Dias]

Counterpoint: The GTA's economy was Earth. The economic collapse postwar resulted from losing Earth; the Vasudans stepped in to take its place during Reconstruction, which is why their economy recovered much quicker than the Terran one despite suffering effectively identical calamities. Reconnecting Earth to the GTVA's economy stands a chance of undoing much of what the Vasudans have gained.

Undo what exactly? How can connecting two economies be negative?

I don't agree with your first sentences, but I'm more interested in your last and what makes you think that joining Sol's economy with the GTVA systems will "undo" what the Vasudans "have gained"? It seems to me that the Vasudans would probably lose "some" power, but would be an immense beneficiary of economic improvements (and thus its government would be praised by its constituency).

[Phantom Hoover]

Most of the Terran population of the GTVA wants to get back to Earth. Earth's economy is regulated by economic models which simply cannot handle that happening. Reconnection stands to collapse the UEF's economy, and leave the GTVA's maintained only by a few frontier types.

[NGTM-1R]

Undo what exactly? How can connecting two economies be negative?

Ask...I dunno, Japan? Hooking their economy up to other people's has had disastrous effects several times in their history.

I don't agree with your first sentences, but I'm more interested in your last and what makes you think that joining Sol's economy with the GTVA systems will "undo" what the Vasudans "have gained"?

Earth, and Sol in general, are completely self-sufficient for both staple goods and luxuries. They've had to be. There is no export market there for Vasudan goods. However the machinery that was built up to support the GTA is probably still existent in some form, raw materials and infrastructure to process them doesn't simply vanish, so Earth can export things to other Terran or even Vasudan worlds and will be in direct competition with Vasudans to do so, without offering a market for the Vasudans to exploit.

More competition without possibility of gain. They can hold the line while probably increasing costs, and this is the best-case outcome.

[Luis Dias]

Well that seems rather one-sided bleak fearmongering... you sure you aren't forgetting about positive things that can come up with the opening up of closed frontiers? I know little of Japan's history, but I'd wonder where Japan would be right now without the globalized economy, so.

[General Battuta]

There is a lot of really cool analysis in this thread. I do think we're missing an important ideological/philosophical dimension, though. The Vasudans lost their homeworld and were better for it; in the game theory sense it forced them to toss the steering wheel out the window and really commit to a strategy of decentralized strength. They may view the Terran preoccupation with re-centering themselves as a major blunder. Or Petrarch might be right and they're on some level bitter.

I don't think one side is clearly right or wrong - they'd both have persuasive arguments about whether this was or wasn't a worthwhile investment.

[NGTM-1R]

Well that seems rather one-sided bleak fearmongering... you sure you aren't forgetting about positive things that can come up with the opening up of closed frontiers?

Well, the alternative is the people on the other side of the frontier, who lost the war, get screwed. So somebody in Vasudanland is going to be worried either way. There's also the possibility you end up with nearly all the Terrans living in a huge ghetto in Sol, and I'm pretty sure that's not going to go well for people who export from out-system in the end.

I'm not really offering my view, but rather one that could be adopted by otherwise reasonable Vasudans about the issue. There are dozens of ways this could damage the Vasudan economy, even the simple need to rebuild Sol after the war could do it, to no gain or a loss. Most of the good outcomes require a degree of enlightenment and a desire to not screw people that does not typically exist in the corporate mindset, much less following an active and long war.

I know little of Japan's history, but I'd wonder where Japan would be right now without the globalized economy, so.

Japan's economic involvement with the rest of the world nearly opened with becoming an enfeebled protectorate of the US, from which they were only saved by the American Civil War, and ultimately they saved themselves from the fate of most of Asia during the 19th century and the early part of the 20th at the cost of being dependent on foreign imports of arms and material to build arms. This resulted in the Russo-Japanese War, which nearly bankrupted them, and the Second World War, which wiped their economy out, nearly destroyed the Japanese state, and they did become an enfeebled protectorate of the US for a time. They were set on the road to recovery by supporting the US in the Korean War, but ultimately went down again to delayed effects of the US economic crash in the seventies and eighties. Whether the country has recovered from that is a subject of debate inside Japan, even nearly a generation after the crash.

[Luis Dias]

There is a lot of really cool analysis in this thread. I do think we're missing an important ideological/philosophical dimension, though. The Vasudans lost their homeworld and were better for it; in the game theory sense it forced them to toss the steering wheel out the window and really commit to a strategy of decentralized strength. They may view the Terran preoccupation with re-centering themselves as a major blunder. Or Petrarch might be right and they're on some level bitter.

I don't think one side is clearly right or wrong - they'd both have persuasive arguments about whether this was or wasn't a worthwhile investment.

Hm. Personally, I have to ponder about the relevancy of those issues... not quite sure.

Well, the alternative is the people on the other side of the frontier, who lost the war, get screwed. So somebody in Vasudanland is going to be worried either way. There's also the possibility you end up with nearly all the Terrans living in a huge ghetto in Sol, and I'm pretty sure that's not going to go well for people who export from out-system in the end.

I'm not really offering my view, but rather one that could be adopted by otherwise reasonable Vasudans about the issue. There are dozens of ways this could damage the Vasudan economy, even the simple need to rebuild Sol after the war could do it, to no gain or a loss. Most of the good outcomes require a degree of enlightenment and a desire to not screw people that does not typically exist in the corporate mindset, much less following an active and long war.

Ah. Right. I was not arguing from the point of view of already knowing there would be a massive war between Sol and the rest of the terran systems. When the decision of building the gate was made, this was not the scenario put in place I believe.

The decision to battle Sol was made after the gate was already completed, and so it is an independent strategic move. One wonders what would the humans have decided had they known in advance they would have had to battle Sol... would they have been cynical enough to build it anyway in order to try to conquer Sol?

Japan's economic involvement with the rest of the world nearly opened with becoming an enfeebled protectorate of the US, from which they were only saved by the American Civil War, and ultimately they saved themselves from the fate of most of Asia during the 19th century and the early part of the 20th at the cost of being dependent on foreign imports of arms and material to build arms. This resulted in the Russo-Japanese War, which nearly bankrupted them, and the Second World War, which wiped their economy out, nearly destroyed the Japanese state, and they did become an enfeebled protectorate of the US for a time. They were set on the road to recovery by supporting the US in the Korean War, but ultimately went down again to delayed effects of the US economic crash in the seventies and eighties. Whether the country has recovered from that is a subject of debate inside Japan, even nearly a generation after the crash.

I wouldn't place so much faith in an analysis that concludes that Japan's openness to the world was bad because they had wars. Let me put it this way: I wouldn't mind being a japanese right now.

[General Battuta]

There's also a powerful political imperative for gate construction. The Petrarch Doctrine exists as a way to keep the GTVA population united (again, remember, this government has been in power for less than 50 years, and it has to deal with preexisting loyalties not just to Earth but to the local power blocs that reigned during reconstruction), and in a very real sense the gate project had to exist simply as a totem to keep everything else ticking. It's a symbol of the GTVA can help you.

The Vasudans also doubtless made the case that on a sociopolitical level pinning the stability of the Terran half of the GTVA on a project with an uncertain outcome was a short-range patch and an ill-considered gamble. Again, the problem of centralization: by focusing loyalty as well as infrastructure on Sol the Terrans made themselves dependent on Sol. This was not a progressive move towards the Vasudan ideal of a society prepared to absorb enormous shocks, a society adapted to distributed existence across the node network.

e: NGTM1R also brought up the 'Sol ghetto' scenario which is a definite fear among GTVA policymakers. They are very into demographic dynamic analysis.

[NGTM-1R]

Luis: Considering my analysis of their history was economic and what those wars ultimately did to it (bad things), and then in the end they've crashed and arguably haven't recovered over the last twenty years...

(Plus if you really think it's just "they had wars" you have no idea of the marks that World War 2 left on the country's psyche. It's difficult to comprehend for a non-Japanese just how deeply scarred the Japanese are regarding it and hence we have trouble understanding why they can't look directly and fairly at their own involvement in it.)