[crazy_dave]

Serkr only jumps in if Steele thinks the Toutatis is too vulnerable. That roughly translates in the two artillery gone and/or most of the strike wings wasted. I don't remember the exact triggers.

Got it - I had one artillery left and I think all my strike teams were wasted, so it must be both artillery units gone for them to appear.

[MatthTheGeek]

Speaking of Vasudans, they could use some newer designs and weapons in their fighters and cap ships too. C'mon BP team, show 'em some love! /sillymode - in seriousness, the new BP ship designs are really good, so I'd love to see them tackle new Vasudan fighters and cap ships beyond massive transports, but they may not have the time/resources to do so which given the massive undertaking is more than reasonable.

You're asking to the wrong people. Most of the assets used in BP were not made by or for BP. Go ask the rest of the community why they are too lazy to make more quality Zod ships !

[starbug]

Quote from: crazy_dave on January 31, 2013, 11:01:33 am

Speaking of Vasudans, they could use some newer designs and weapons in their fighters and cap ships too. C'mon BP team, show 'em some love! /sillymode - in seriousness, the new BP ship designs are really good, so I'd love to see them tackle new Vasudan fighters and cap ships beyond massive transports, but they may not have the time/resources to do so which given the massive undertaking is more than reasonable.

You're asking to the wrong people. Most of the assets used in BP were not made by or for BP. Go ask the rest of the community why they are too lazy to make more quality Zod ships !

I thought they had newer vasudan assets, but they werent using them until the time when they are needed, as the vasudans havent really featured much to warrant brand new assests and really the only ships that appear are logistical and not military. I am sure when the vasudans get a bigger role in BP we will see some nifty new ships.

[Gray113]

Any chance that some of the Earth defense or Inferno Vasudan models will be used? Some of them look swweeeeeeet 

[Gray113]

crazy_dave

Although GTVA forces are greater in Cap ship strength we still don't know who has the advantage in strike craft, the UEF bomber core is the one thing Steele fears.

It is true that the GTVA can replace losses but can they do this indefinitely? Konsu will not risk getting involved militarily as long as the Shivan threat exists and the Terran half is already unstable - committing more forces could lead to a second NTF uprising.

Not to mention that the population of Sol is larger than that of the entire Terran half of the GTVA. The population will have been motivated by the atrocities carried out by the Terrans and will probably be signing up on-mass much in the same way as the population of the USA after Pearl harbour because they will now believe the UEF's cause to be just. If the UEF can get some breathing space then depending on available resources can hugely expand their forces.

[Aesaar]

The GTVA is already committing more forces: The Phoenicia/Vengeance BG is on the line already, and both the Agamemnon/Insuperable and the Illium/Pallas BGs are in reserve right on the other side of the node.  Moreover, the GTVA is much, much more capable of absorbing losses than the UEF.  No, they can't reinforce indefinitely, but still more than the enemy.

The whole comparison to WW2 doesn't actually work.  The longer this war goes on, the more inevitable GTVA victory is.  The GTVA isn't weeks away from logistical collapse, while UEF is.  UEF victory, if it comes at all, is very unlikely to come through purely military means.

[Gray113]

Aesaar

You are looking at this as though things are going to continue as they are. Its not - there is a massive battle coming up that Steele can easily lose. As long as the pressure on the UEF is kept up then they are looking at collapse but if this pressure can be released then they can recover.

I also think that it is unlikely that the UEF can win by force alone but if the GTVA suffer a second uprising (or even the threat of one) then their chances start looking a lot better.

[Aesaar]

Steele is more likely to win th eupcoming attack on Earth than the UEF is.  Which is natural, since he has more ships, better ships, and most importantly, the initiative.  He only needs to keep up pressure for the next few days.  Then he'll strike, and he'll very probably win. 

The UEF would need months (if not years) of peace and quiet to get back to a competitive footing.  Which they won't get.  Even a huge uprising in GTVA space wouldn't change this.  It would take more time to retreat back to Delta Serpentis than it would to just continue with the plan as it is.  As Byrne says, this war won't be won through force of arms.  The entire point of Acts 1 and 2 was proving this.

[The E]

Gray113: The balance of available forces, both immediately and in the mid-to-long term, vastly favours the GTVA. If there is a WW2 reference to be made, it's the US Navy vs the Imperial Japanese Navy; there are much more solid parallels in the strategic situation there.

[General Battuta]

But I think Gray has some good points about the possibility of an uprising in the GTVA.

[Aesaar]

Shambhala is clearly a big radio, going to broadcast the benefits of Ubuntu to the whole GTVA, thereby causing the feared uprisings.

[Gray113]

The E
I would agree in the short term but mid/long term?

If the battle of Earth is lost then its game over both sides know this - will Steele know when to withdraw if he is losing? Will this even be a possability?

If (and it is a big IF) The UEF can inflict heavy enough casualties on the GTVA forces whilst preserving enough of their own strength then what is to stop them from rebuilding? Is there a shortage of resources in Sol that so far has not been talked about or some other reason that their greater manufacturing ability will not be able to allow them to catch up?

I would actually look at it the other way - the Japanese navy was stronger at the start of the conflict but the USA was able to replace losses and exploit R&D breakthroughs in order build an advantage over time. A position that I feel would be comperable to the UEF  - IF they manage to defeat Steele's assault

P.S sorry for hijacking the thread

[Aesaar]

Which side seems to be getting stronger over time to you?  Who has lost so much of their infrastructure that they can barely support military operations?

You want a more explicit comparison, look at the dialogue about the relative skill of the two fighter corps.

Your entire premise would require the UEF to take and keep the initiative.  The Wargods tried, but ended up failing at the latter.  What you're suggesting would require an unbelievable miracle to happen, and would contradict everything we know about the war.

Is there a shortage of resources in Sol that so far has not been talked about or some other reason that their greater manufacturing ability will not be able to allow them to catch up?

Yes there is.  That resource is time.

[Gray113]

Aesaar
And who is going to risk throwing away every advantage they have in a unnecessary cataclysmic final battle? The GTVA

If they don't force the battle but instead maintain the pressure then the UEF will collapse in time and the GTVA get everything they want. Steele is being forced to attack before he is ready - this gives the UEF an advantage that they would not have otherwise - one that they can capitalise on.

[Aesaar]

Attrition was Severanti's strategy.  Steele wants a quick end to the war.  He's still working on his own timetable.  His political masters have given him a ridiculous amount of freedom.

Just because he's working faster than Severanti doesn't mean he's rushing anything.

[MatthTheGeek]

That is not true. If given the choice, Steele would rather keep bleeding the UEF dry - that would be the wiser strategy for the GTVA if they could afford the time, one that ensures victory with minimal losses. That is the exact strategy Severanti has been employing for 18 months and the results of this strategy enabled Steele to plow through 3rd Fleet with minimal resistance.

But the GTVA can't afford to follow this wise but lengthy strategy. Shivan incursion could happen at any time. Civil unrest is brewing at home. And last but not least, the Project, whatever it is, is getting closer to completion. The Tev must end the war as quickly as possible. Their decision to deploy four more battlegroups is clearly a calculated, but major gamble born of desperation to end the war now, and because of that they will sustain losses. Because UEF logistical collapse is still weeks/months away. Because Byrne has saved the near entirety of 1st Fleet's strength. Because Netreba is barely bloodied, and that Calder is more than willing to hit where it will hurt the most, and still able to do so. And because the Fedayeen are now on the loose.

Steele's is using more agressive tactics to end the war swiftly, but this does not come without a price. It is, in fact, a massive gamble. Steele sustained significant losses during Earth' Blitz, and four more battlegroups or not, genius or not, another attack on Earth as predicted by Cassandra will lead to more losses. What remains to be seen is how large those losses will be.

[CT27]

So Severanti was a better strategist than Steele?

[Dark Hunter]

Not necessarily.

It depends on what your priorities are. Like MatthTheGeek said, if you're going for a slow, eventual win that minimizes losses, then a conservative strategy like Severanti's is better. However, if you do not have time for that, and winning the war quickly is more important despite comparatively greater amounts of human life lost, then Steele's more aggressive and risky tactics make more sense.

And remember, Steele may be taking risks, but he's doing so intelligently. I don't think he'd underestimate his opponent and make a severe blunder. He's keeping his gambles to what is realistically achievable, basically. He strikes me as the kind of leader who would, if told to accomplish something impossible by his superiors, would tell them "No, I cannot do that, and I will not waste lives trying."

[MatthTheGeek]

So Severanti was a better strategist than Steele?

No. Steele would just have followed a similar strategy than Severanti under the circumstances of those first 18 months. Possibly with better results. It's just that the circumstances have changed, and this optimal "slowly bleeding them out" strategy is not viable anymore.

He strikes me as the kind of leader who would, if told to accomplish something impossible by his superiors, would tell them "No, I cannot do that, and I will not waste lives trying."

Excepted that Steele knows about the Project, and knows about Contingency Morpheus. He knows what is at stakes here and now, so he understands the necessity of those losses.

Plus, refusing orders for the sake of the people under your command is more of Lopez's type. Both psych profiles are massively different.

[Dark Hunter]

Wait, are we assuming that Steele's assault on Earth will fail?

The impression I got was that he would win, albeit with heavy losses.