Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 23908 times)

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Offline IronBeer

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It's almost as if people just don't understand exponential growth.
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Offline Su-tehp

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Here in my hometown of Washington, D.C., a citywide lockdown began almost 4 hours ago. Only essential businesses are allowed to remain open. I work as a cashier at my local supermarket only 2 blocks away from my apartment and supermarkets are an essential business. I don't leave home except to go work at the supermarket and then I go straight home and I don't go anywhere else. At least I don't have to worry about food shopping during this crisis. And all of us working at the supermarket are taking every precaution against the coronavirus: wearing gloves, washing our hands and windexing every surface regularly, telling customers to stand at least 6 feet from everyone else and pointing to the new signs saying the same thing.

There's still no paper towels or toilet paper in the store, though. Fortunately, I don't have to worry about getting more of those just yet.
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Offline Det. Bullock

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No word about toilet paper shortages here in Italy that I know of, is that a US thing?
We did get hand sanitizer shortages though.
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Offline karajorma

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Yet another story of the US's failure to test people. How the hell does someone who as told by her family doctor that she might have the virus still not know two weeks later!
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Offline General Battuta

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The American social safety net is gone and the private sector has (of course) absolutely no incentive or responsibility to do anything but extract the maximum profit from its workers before they die. Amazon is literally crowdsourcing pay for sick leave, presumably because their ideology of “turn no profit, just reduce costs” has them totally unable to provide for their people.

This is the destination Reagan set a course for. If anyone still believes in the deregulated neoliberal America after this...but who are we kidding. Of course they will.

 

Offline jr2

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And the cringe continues

Reporter: What do you say to the americans out there who are scared?

Trumpet: I'll say to them that you're a terrible reporter

Maybe you want to, oh, I dunno, provide a little context? Kind of effing important


He means Rachel Maddow, an MSNBC host who often serves as a convenient scapegoat for where "dem lib'rals" get all their news.

I presume it's just a coincidence that google tells me she's the first open lesbian news anchor?

I honestly had no idea.  I just know that she was hell bent on the Russian collusion story for 3 years straight.

Judging by current statistics I think there is a good chance the US will end up having the worst response in the entire world to this disease. If not, we'll probably be top 5.

NY picked up about 5000 new infections yesterday. Here in NYC we're looking at about one death an hour. Army's looking at setting up field hospitals in stadiums. Witness the true power of The Doubling



I read that NY is 10x worse than the rest of the nation at the moment.  Hopefully it didn't get spread too far, some other state governors are issuing mandatory 14 day quarantine for visitors from NY.

I guess it would in theory...AFAIK there's been no evidence of either re-infection or mutation.

So far we have 400,000 cases worldwide. Herd immunity requires about a hundred times that number. I wouldn't want to roll the dice that an RNA virus (which is a kind famous for a higher mutation rate) won't mutate into something nastier if our entire data set composes of 1% of the cases we would end up with.

Good news on that front, at least for now

****ing incredible

Let me make a comparison: If I were to tell you that taking a shot of alcohol would help with a gum infection, and you went home and chugged an entire bottle of Isopropyl rubbing alcohol and died, would that be my fault?

The details are: they took fish tank cleaner, which uses Chloroquine Phosphate, not the Hydroxychloroquine used in the malaria drug, AND, they took IIRC 1.5x the lethal dose ~3,000 mg?  Correct dose for COVID would be 500 mg, lethal is 2,000 mg or so I recall.  See https://www.rt.com/usa/483908-media-blame-trump-chloroquine/]here for more on that.

The only "cure" for this kind of pathogen would be to devise a really quick way to test vaccines, in order to turn 18 months of trials and checks into 18 days or something. As far as I can tell, this is complete science fiction.

So no, we will suffer this for many decades still, if not centuries.

The reason it takes so long is they have to monitor for negative effects or at least that's what I've read and it makes sense.

As we all know easter is about sacrificing your grandparents to Nurgle.

The concern is that we will be heading into much worse territory if society starts to collapse.  People need to eat and have a roof + heat which requires fuel, electric, and food, which requires paying other people who also need those things.  :rolleyes:  If we get to hyperinflation and wheelbarrows of cash you could start seeing more dead from the effects of economics than from the virus (depending on how the virus goes of course).

Yet another story of the US's failure to test people. How the hell does someone who as told by her family doctor that she might have the virus still not know two weeks later!

As for testing, apparently this was a bipartisan, multi-administration blunder.

Bloomberg, 2020-3-18:

Quote
The national stockpile used to be somewhat more robust. In 2006, Congress provided supplemental funds to add 104 million N95 masks and 52 million surgical masks in an effort to prepare for a flu pandemic. But after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.

As for South Korea: they learned their lesson from their outbreak of MERS and have a system in place, see here.

Why we failed at first on testing (Reuters):

Quote
The administration of President Donald Trump was tripped up by government rules and conventions, former officials and public health experts say. Instead of drafting the private sector early on to develop tests, as South Korea did, U.S. health officials relied, as is customary, on test kits prepared by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, some of which proved faulty. Then, sticking to its time-consuming vetting procedures, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration didn’t approve tests other than the CDC’s until Feb. 29, more than five weeks after discussions with outside labs had begun.

Meanwhile, in the absence of enough kits, the CDC insisted for weeks on narrow criteria for testing, recommending it only when a person had recently been to China or other hot spots or had contact with someone known to be infected. As a result, the federal government failed to screen an untold number of Americans and missed opportunities to contain the spread, clinicians and public health experts say.

South Korea took a risk, releasing briskly vetted tests, then circling back later to spot check their effectiveness. {{The Elon Musk approach}}  By contrast, the United States’ FDA said it wanted to ensure, upfront, that the tests were accurate before they went out to millions of Americans.

“There are always opportunities to learn from situations like this one,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, who has been on the job only three months, told Reuters. “But one thing I will stand firm on: We cannot compromise on the quality of the tests because what would be worse than no tests at all is wildly inaccurate test results.”  {{Which is why you spot-check them, you obfuscating dope - learn to chew gum and walk at the same time}}

In a statement, CDC spokesman Benjamin Haynes said, “This process has not gone as smoothly as we would have liked.” But he said “more and more state labs have come online, increasing our public health system’s ability to detect and respond to cases.”

Bombarded by criticism amid a re-election campaign, Trump vowed on Friday to ramp up production of test kits in partnership with private companies and to make the diagnostic tests more widely available at hospitals and in-store parking lots. This week, the FDA said more than 35 universities, hospitals and lab companies had begun running their own tests, under the agency’s revised policy.


The American social safety net is gone and the private sector has (of course) absolutely no incentive or responsibility to do anything but extract the maximum profit from its workers before they die. Amazon is literally crowdsourcing pay for sick leave, presumably because their ideology of “turn no profit, just reduce costs” has them totally unable to provide for their people.

This is the destination Reagan set a course for. If anyone still believes in the deregulated neoliberal America after this...but who are we kidding. Of course they will.

Plox 2 examine those regs in action at the CDC and FDA ^
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:15:55 pm by jr2 »

 

Offline karajorma

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Yet another story of the US's failure to test people. How the hell does someone who as told by her family doctor that she might have the virus still not know two weeks later!

As for testing, apparently this was a bipartisan, multi-administration blunder.

Bloomberg, 2020-3-18:

Quote
The national stockpile used to be somewhat more robust. In 2006, Congress provided supplemental funds to add 104 million N95 masks and 52 million surgical masks in an effort to prepare for a flu pandemic. But after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.

What the hell does an article about masks have to do with testing? Well apart from the standard practice of "if all else fails, blame Obama".
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Offline mjn.mixael

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The only statistic needed to refute anything anyone says about the US government doing a good job is that the US is about to (or possibly already has at the time of posting this) passed China's all time record high of confirmed cases. The US had a nearly 2 month warning that this was happening in the world.
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Offline MP-Ryan

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For weeks, the Canadian province of Alberta (population 4 million ish) has had a higher per-capita testing rate than the entire United States of America, despite the fact that the US has [had?] the highest pandemic readiness score in the world going into this.

A lot of Americans are dying or going to die for no goddamn reason other than the current administration was woefully unqualified and unprepared to handle a crisis.
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Offline The E

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Maybe you want to, oh, I dunno, provide a little context? Kind of effing important

I don't know what's funnier: That you think Trump's inability to contain his anger at reporters calling him on his bull**** is excusable, or that you think this entire exchange makes Trump look better.

The basic problem you have, jr2, is that you insist on treating Trump as if he were just someone who plays a successful businessman on the TV. He isn't, he's your gods-damned President, and when he assumed that office, he also assumed a level of responsibility for his statements far in excess of that granted to a reality-TV person. That he continues to disavow responsibility is damning for him, and that you insist on believing that he bears no responsibility for the consequences arising from his statements is damning you.

Quote
I read that NY is 10x worse than the rest of the nation at the moment.  Hopefully it didn't get spread too far, some other state governors are issuing mandatory 14 day quarantine for visitors from NY.

Here's a hint: covid is already everywhere in the US. Issuing a quarantine on people coming from NY will do literally nothing.

Quote
Let me make a comparison: If I were to tell you that taking a shot of alcohol would help with a gum infection, and you went home and chugged an entire bottle of Isopropyl rubbing alcohol and died, would that be my fault?

You are not literally the President of the United States making public statements about possible cures during a massive public health crisis though.

Or do you think that that context does suddenly not matter?

Quote
The concern is that we will be heading into much worse territory if society starts to collapse.  People need to eat and have a roof + heat which requires fuel, electric, and food, which requires paying other people who also need those things.  :rolleyes:  If we get to hyperinflation and wheelbarrows of cash you could start seeing more dead from the effects of economics than from the virus (depending on how the virus goes of course).

Translated: The concern is that, after this crisis is over, you will end up with a system of social security and public health care comparable to EU states, which means that rich people will be getting less rich and employers won't have as much of a hold over their employees via health insurance plans than they do now.
We've been telling you for decades that your system is bad and ready to collapse, and now that it's being tested for the first time, we can see that every single one of those problems could have been avoided if you had listened even once.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:16:09 am by The E »
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I like how it's the US economical system that'll collapse under the strain of the country with the highest GDP in the world (both in total and per capita) taking far reaching measures to combat a virus, whilst a myriad of other countries with arguably far more fragile economies think it's worth the risk - or you know, took those measures far earlier before things got out of hand. Countries that put far less power into the executive then the US does have done so without catastrophic consequences.

And something must have changed considerably in the US between the 30s and now, becuase the Great Depression didn't have a fatality rate like that at all. The US was able to temporarily change it's entire economy to a wartime economy and back in a span of 10 years without triggering a societal collapse too!

But more importantly, this assumes that the deaths of millions of people as a result of a virus that's allowed to spread unchecked (assuming a flat 1% mortality rate and not the cost of overwhelmed medical services) does not itself trigger deep upsetting societal changes.

The disgusting aspect of the "it's okay if people die, the economy is more important" stance is that the people saying it are doing so in the assumption that they themselves wouldn't die. It's never been about "saving lives in the long run", it's just the good old "I don't care what happens as long as I get to do business as usual".

Quote from: The E
I don't know what's funnier: That you think Trump's inability to contain his anger at reporters calling him on his bull**** is excusable, or that you think this entire exchange makes Trump look better.

Quote from: Karajorma
What the hell does an article about masks have to do with testing

It's jr2's classic "i dont even read or watch the stuff i link" approach to debating.

Quote from: jr2
Let me make a comparison: If I were to tell you that taking a shot of alcohol would help with a gum infection, and you went home and chugged an entire bottle of Isopropyl rubbing alcohol and died, would that be my fault?

Alcohol doesn't help with gum infection to begin with. You told a lie to make yourself seem smarter then you actually are. The difference between you and trump is that you aren't adressing the nation in your position of authority whilst a doctor is standing behind you.

Your proposed cure has zero chance of actually helping (and in fact it makes things worse), so you would've failed in your responsibility to both not tell lies and either give correct medical advice or defer to someone who can. My biggest mistake here would be to blindly and desperately trust you, a person who has proved time and time again that he can not be trusted, but I do feel that you being fundementally untrustworthy is the worse offense here.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 03:57:25 am by -Joshua- »

 
 
Hey remember what happened the last time the US economy collapsed?

That's right, Obama became president.

Clearly a disaster we can't allow to happen again.

 

Offline Colonol Dekker

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BoJo has confirmed he's one of the infected.

Nothing will change.

 

Offline theperfectdrugsk

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He's just doing his part. Gotta get that herd immunity up!

 
Meanwhile, on March 7th, one of Polish gynecologists returned from Austria. With no testing or quarantine measures for people coming from abroad being in place, this person later turned out to be infected and as of March 19th is hospitalised with severe syndroms. Currently it's estimated that since he returned, he worked in two clinics and one hospital, and had contact with over 140 patients and an unknown amount of other people.

He might be responsible for what accounts to nearly half of current confirmed coronavirus cases in Poland, not to mention contamination of three medical facilities, one of which is a major one, and an unknown number of other people.

F*ck. (edit: lol didn't know that'd be censored out)


Clearly a disaster we can't allow to happen again.

That caused me to look up the outcome of Obamacare. I believe US citizens would agree with you.
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It's true, the US is much off worse now that insurers are now no longer allowed to reject coverage based on a pre-existing condition during the time of a pandemic where people with pre-existing conditions are more vulnerable.

 
You know what I'm very bored so let's just read Jr2's post properly.

****ing incredible

Let me make a comparison: If I were to tell you that taking a shot of alcohol would help with a gum infection, and you went home and chugged an entire bottle of Isopropyl rubbing alcohol and died, would that be my fault?

The details are: they took fish tank cleaner, which uses Chloroquine Phosphate, not the Hydroxychloroquine used in the malaria drug, AND, they took IIRC 1.5x the lethal dose ~3,000 mg?  Correct dose for COVID would be 500 mg, lethal is 2,000 mg or so I recall.  See https://www.rt.com/usa/483908-media-blame-trump-chloroquine for more on that.

I mean I could point out the irony of you going MADdow RUSSIA and then linking the russian state's propaganda network in the same post, but let's not focus on that. I should probably also not focus on how the article you linked doesn't actually contain any new information compared to my article, just some extra tweets by ben shapiro whose arguments you poorly copied, or that both articles note that statements by the president have lead up to people doing stupid things. We could probably argue back and forth about whose more the fool, the fool or the fools who follow him.

Let's focus on how you know the correct dose for COVID treatment. As both articles point out, there's been no clinical trails done, so let's figure out how you know better then anyone else what the best way to treat COVID is.

 

Offline General Battuta

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BoJo is CoPo

 

Offline General Battuta

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And lmao @ anyone who believes an economic downturn is going to do more harm than three million dead Americans