Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 28721 times)

0 Members and 10 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
all this nonsense talk about "reopening the economy" is going to kill so many people, it's not even funny.

 

Offline 666maslo666

  • 28
  • Artificial Neural Network
Hi.  Actually guy with a genetics degree here and hefty immunology course load.  Wife is a public health RN.  And I read journal articles and studies because I'm a nerd like that/

Great. From your own link:

Quote
5. Conclusion: Facemask use demonstrated mixed results, but a randomized control trial suggests that it is effective.

The vast majority of people wear masks incorrectly (removing them to talk, not practicing proper hygiene, not maintaining a sterile zone) and they have been proven to increase risk of transmission via a false sense of security.

Citation needed. Heck, I wonder how the hell would you even rigorously test a claim like that. As far as I am concerned, it is a mere opinion and a meme, not a scientific fact.

SARS-CoV-2 is droplet transmission and only aerosolized by certain medical procedures

And speaking, and breathing, and spitting, and coughing and sneezing..


As I said, east Asian countries, and increasingly even Western countries, are recommending or even mandating masks for general public. East Asian countries actually manage this pandemic quite well and have experience from SARS outbreaks, so their virologists are arguably the best in the world. They are not stupid and their guidelines are not due to public pressure only.


Also, you seem to be overstating how hard it is to wear a mask properly, this is not rocket science, nor a respirator. More importantly, even an improperly worn mask is better than nothing. Someone removes their mask for speaking? Sure it is dumb, but is it worse than an unmasked individual? That is very much debatable. Wearing a mask encourages touching the face? I may as well claim that it does the opposite and reminds/prevents the person from touching their face. And I bet there is no reliable study to show I am wrong on this.


Bottom line is, while the efficiency of mask use may be questionable and quality of evidence is often lacking, recommending NOT to wear masks is erroneous simply due to precautionary principle. At worst, mask use by general public may not help but it is a far larger stretch to claim it it does hurt. Hence why the top experts (who are NOT in WHO and CDC) recommend it.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return." - Leonardo da Vinci

Arguing on the internet is like running in the Special Olympics. Even if you win you are still retarded.

 

Offline Colonol Dekker

  • HLP is my mistress
  • Moderator
  • 213
  • Aken Tigh Dekker
    • My old squad sub-domain
I would argue that being the country most exposed to viral outbreaks does not make them the best qualified in dealing with them.

 

Offline IronBeer

  • 29
  • (Witty catchphrase)
    • Minecraft
I'm normally hesitant to drop my credentials in any sort of conversation but it's now become relevant.

I've worked in sterile processing in the biotechnology sector, and was involved in (among other things) the design of clean rooms and sterile PPE protocols.

At a very simple level, I have trouble believing that even an ill-fitting makeshift mask won't physically trap at least some aerosols or droplets. Will this stop the droplets from possibly eventually leaking through and reaching your nose or mouth? Maybe.

The issue comes in with contacting the outward face of the mask, and disposal of it. Without practice, it's easy to contaminate your hands with the droplets trapped in the mask, then to transfer that contamination to one's personal effects, food, face, etc. Industrial settings have designated spaces for disposing of used PPE, and sources of sanitizers for the operator's hands. Additionally, properly adhering to sterile practice mandates that all items of PPE are single-use and single-use only. Applying these guidelines to the general public is obviously untenable due to the amount required.

We all saw how people freaked out over toilet paper - a product with basically no bearing on one's likelihood of contracting or surviving COVID - imagine the pandemonium that would have ensued if the authorities had recommended wearing non-improvised masks from day 1.

Also @maslo: you're exactly the kind of guy who should be wearing a mask and heavy PPE. Stay safe.
"I have approximate knowledge of many things."

Ridiculous, the Director's Cut

Starlancer Head Animations - Converted

 
That said, their experiences with SARS in modern era gave them some more knowledge in dealing with it. And I don't mean only the specialists, but the whole population. People are going nuts in this "stay home" state right now, at least some, and I bet that they've already learned from multiple mistakes they've made how to be properly prepared for such an event.

I'd like to push up one thought here - that the largest part of the economic impact of this outbreak is due to people stopping buying stuff they don't actually need.

As for the masks... even if you contaminate yourself by touching the mask, and then subsequently other items you touch, you're still at least partially protected from spraying your stuff around while talking or, God forbid, sneezing. Say, in a store - even if you touched your own mask with your hands or single use gloves, if you keep to touching only products that you are taking with yourself and surfaces that are frequently sanitised (like shopping basket handles), you're really minimising risks of transmitting anything to others.


Another not confirmed rumor from the Polish scene. So supposedly the reusable face masks that were recently introduced into our National Postal Service's offer, sold for about 12,5 Euro per 5 piece pack, were actually donated to us by some other country (presumably China). I'm not going to wave around my "never let a good crisis go to waste" flag just yet. I'm just keeping it somewhere handy until it's confirmed.
Mito [PL] - Today at 8:52 PM
I was supposed to make a short presentation about basics of optical fibers and here I am, listening to Eurobeat while reading about quantum cryptography.

 

Offline jr2

  • The Mail Man
  • 212
  • It's prounounced jayartoo 0x6A7232
    • Steam
Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known
Of 3,300 people in California county up to 4% found to have been infected.

Snippet:
Quote
The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.

Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.

If this holds true across other locales, that means as more antibody testing comes online over the next few weeks, the death rate as a percentage will decline.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121

  
If this holds true across other locales, that means as more antibody testing comes online over the next few weeks, the death rate as a percentage will decline.

it will not, however, reduce the absolute number dead, nor the degree of culpability of the american government in those deaths
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 

Offline IronBeer

  • 29
  • (Witty catchphrase)
    • Minecraft
As for the masks... even if you contaminate yourself by touching the mask, and then subsequently other items you touch, you're still at least partially protected from spraying your stuff around while talking or, God forbid, sneezing. Say, in a store - even if you touched your own mask with your hands or single use gloves, if you keep to touching only products that you are taking with yourself and surfaces that are frequently sanitised (like shopping basket handles), you're really minimising risks of transmitting anything to others.

Right, yes - I forgot to address that. Wearing a mask should make the wearer less infectious if they're already sick.

But of course it should go without saying to really avoid being out if you think you've got COVID.
"I have approximate knowledge of many things."

Ridiculous, the Director's Cut

Starlancer Head Animations - Converted

 

Offline jr2

  • The Mail Man
  • 212
  • It's prounounced jayartoo 0x6A7232
    • Steam
If this holds true across other locales, that means as more antibody testing comes online over the next few weeks, the death rate as a percentage will decline.

it will not, however, reduce the absolute number dead, nor the degree of culpability of the american government in those deaths

Oh I know, we still have that lurking in the background but it's kind of hard to tell China to pay for it when they're going to be recovering at least economically for a very very long time due to everyone pulling their critical infrastructure and more out of the country.  ("The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively – significantly limiting the geographical spread of the disease. However, if NPIs were conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks later than they were, the number of cases may have shown a 3-fold, 7-fold, or 18-fold increase, respectively." link to article, link to findings.)


 
Study author Dr Shengjie Lai, of the University of Southampton, comments: “Our study demonstrates how important it is for countries which are facing an imminent outbreak to proactively plan a coordinated response which swiftly tackles the spread of the disease on a number of fronts. We also show that China’s comprehensive response, in a relatively short period, greatly reduced the potential health impact of the outbreak.”

The research also found that improved disease detection, isolation of cases and social distancing (for example, the cancelling of large public events, working from home and school closures) are likely to have had a far greater positive impact on containment than travel restrictions. The authors suggest social distancing should be continued for the next few months in China to prevent case numbers increasing again after the lifting of travel restrictions in late February.

Conclusion: The NPIs deployed in China appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak, but the efficacy of the different interventions varied, with the early case detection and contact reduction being the most effective.

jr2 you continue to display a staggering inability to actually read the articles and/or tweets you present to us as an argument for the US response. Why do you keep doing this, and why do you shy away from the questions people have previously asked you in this thread?
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 05:10:03 pm by -Joshua- »

 
I'm not sure if I find more dark humour in you linking to articles that spell out what China did right and spell out strategies as effective (that the Trump administration has not followed and is now actively protesting when individual states do them), or you pointing to Nancy Pelosi's critique of Trump's travel ban of Myanmar, Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Tanzania and Sudan as where the democrats were failing on the Coronavirus response.

 
Honestly even aside from jr2/Goober's unbreakable partisan faith in Trump's infallibility, there is a deeper feeling in people in the West that the PRC simply cannot have managed the outbreak better overall than Western governments, and so the vastly lower death toll per capita must be entirely due to CCP lies (I'm sure some of it is, but the US is currently like 10 times worse and is probably also undercounting).

Also fun fact: the South Korean government refused to implement travel bans from China despite strong agitation from right-wing parties to do so. It has subsequently had one of the most effective COVID containment and suppression programs in the world. And yet Trump slapping on a travel ban from China and doing nothing to track or prevent domestic spread is supposed to be proof that his administration handled the pandemic perfectly.
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 
there is a deeper feeling in people in the West that the PRC simply cannot have managed the outbreak better overall than Western governments, and so the vastly lower death toll per capita must be entirely due to CCP lies (I'm sure some of it is, but the US is currently like 10 times worse and is probably also undercounting).

The numbers from China are utterly untrustworthy. So are the numbers from North Korea (which supposedly has 0 cases) and Russia (which supposedly has 273 total deaths).

 

Offline jr2

  • The Mail Man
  • 212
  • It's prounounced jayartoo 0x6A7232
    • Steam
Study author Dr Shengjie Lai, of the University of Southampton, comments: “Our study demonstrates how important it is for countries which are facing an imminent outbreak to proactively plan a coordinated response which swiftly tackles the spread of the disease on a number of fronts. We also show that China’s comprehensive response, in a relatively short period, greatly reduced the potential health impact of the outbreak.”

The research also found that improved disease detection, isolation of cases and social distancing (for example, the cancelling of large public events, working from home and school closures) are likely to have had a far greater positive impact on containment than travel restrictions. The authors suggest social distancing should be continued for the next few months in China to prevent case numbers increasing again after the lifting of travel restrictions in late February.

Conclusion: The NPIs deployed in China appear to be effectively containing the COVID-19 outbreak, but the efficacy of the different interventions varied, with the early case detection and contact reduction being the most effective.

jr2 you continue to display a staggering inability to actually read the articles and/or tweets you present to us as an argument for the US response. Why do you keep doing this, and why do you shy away from the questions people have previously asked you in this thread?


So you are denying that China destroyed virus research in December, downplaying the severity while allowing travel, and disappeared whistleblowers?

In other words, China reacted too late, ignoring the problem for the first few weeks, in an effort to save face, thus causing much of the world, even if they reacted in a more austere manner than was generally recommended by 'experts', to underreact.

Two things can be true at once.

 

Offline karajorma

  • King Louie - Jungle VIP
  • Administrator
  • 214
    • Karajorma's Freespace FAQ
Florida's governor, DeSantis, already drew criticism for leaving beaches open during spring break. Now, with Florida's daily death toll steadily increasing, beaches are starting to reopen.

Quote
You yell, "Barracuda!" and everybody says, "Huh? What?" You yell, "Shark!"...we've got a panic on our hands on the Fourth of July.

Did anyone else immediately think the same thing?


I'm just wondering who Trump will blame this time. Everyone on the left said don't do it. The WHO said don't do it. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if China decides to chime in and say don't do it just so that they can say "We told you not to do it" when this turns into a ****ing disaster.
Karajorma's Freespace FAQ. It's almost like asking me yourself.

[ Diaspora ] - [ Seeds Of Rebellion ] - [ Mind Games ]

 

Offline MP-Ryan

  • Makes General Discussion Make Sense.
  • Global Moderator
  • 210
  • Keyboard > Pen > Sword
    • Twitter
And speaking, and breathing, and spitting, and coughing and sneezing..

That doesn't aerosolize the virus.  You seem to misunderstand what the difference between droplet and aerosol transmission is.  All of those are droplet; they don't produce sufficient viral shedding in fine airborne droplets.  This is why hospitals are conserving fine particulate masks for only high-risk aerosol procedures, not general interaction with COVID patients.

This is an excellent specialist review of why widespread mask recommendation for the general public is more-or-less pointless, and exactly why organizations like the WHO don't recommend it broadly: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 
Quote
You yell, "Barracuda!" and everybody says, "Huh? What?" You yell, "Shark!"...we've got a panic on our hands on the Fourth of July.

Did anyone else immediately think the same thing?

And the death toll in Jaws was what, ten people?

Someone should make a meme replacing Mayor Vaughn with DeSantis.

 
downplaying the severity while allowing travel

jr2 for the sake of saving you from yourself I have to point out that the middle article you link talks about the US's ineffectiveness in enforcing its own travel ban. It's talking about how the US failed to stop people from arriving after its travel ban and did not screen these arrivals properly. It is in fact the same article as Karajorma posted earlier!

I don't even particularly care about your rather bizarre attempts to point to China's failings whilst not even acknowledging US failings. It has been pointed out throughout this thread that the content of the articles you post to reinforce your talking points are not what you claim they are and in fact undermine your various talking points. Despite this being pointed out to you repeatedly you continue to not read the articles you bring to your own defence. Why?
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 01:36:02 am by -Joshua- »

 

Offline 666maslo666

  • 28
  • Artificial Neural Network
Additionally, properly adhering to sterile practice mandates that all items of PPE are single-use and single-use only. Applying these guidelines to the general public is obviously untenable due to the amount required.

Also @maslo: you're exactly the kind of guy who should be wearing a mask and heavy PPE. Stay safe.

Agree, single use would be optimal, however not very realistic when it comes to masks for general population. Id say washable cloth masks are the best option there, and easy to DYI. Respirators are in short supply here as well, and my colleagues sadly have to resort to baking respirators in an oven and reusing them. Luckily not me, as at our clinic we are cozily wrapped up in what is almost a spacesuit. Thanks you!  :yes:
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return." - Leonardo da Vinci

Arguing on the internet is like running in the Special Olympics. Even if you win you are still retarded.

 

Offline Colonol Dekker

  • HLP is my mistress
  • Moderator
  • 213
  • Aken Tigh Dekker
    • My old squad sub-domain
My army respirator filters needed changing quite regularly when in romeo state.  So not sure how useful all these preppers think their kit will be.