[ionia23]

Originally posted by Ghostavo
Excuse me?

Not you, Ghostavo.

[Styxx]

Originally posted by Gank
I didnt imply it was going to collapse, I said its influence is declining, which it quite clearly is. Also my ****ing themselves over was in reference to its support of Israel. Now you're resorting to telling me I was implying something more than what I said because YOU cant prove your point

You did imply it, and of course I can't, as it's an unprovable point. The fact remains that, unless the US suffers dramatic changes in the future, its support for Israel will remain, and the situation will not change. And you can't prove that the kind of change needed to alter the situation in the middle east will ever occur, so your initial point is invalid. Unless you have a time machine, that is.

Originally posted by Gank
Couldnt find an article in english to back yourself up? How convenient. Anyways so Opec say its the US's fault oil price is rising? Why then are they also saying they think they current prices are fair?
http://www.dawn.com/2004/07/02/ebr9.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/01/markets/oil.reut/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5332321/

I didn't bother to find one in english, actually, as the one I had in portuguese raised all points I was addressing quite handily, and I translated the relevant sections.

And Ghostavo's comment is true - other countries are only mentioned in passing, and as "having expressed concerns". That doesn't seem to me like an OPEC-wide move. The fact that the Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country most closely connected to US oil interests (except for Iraq right now) is also very interesting.

Originally posted by Gank
What you're saying makes little sense anyways, and is just a blatent attempt by Opec to make the US look like its too blame.

Or what you are saying makes little sense, and it's just a blatant attempt by the US to make the OPEC look like it's to blame.

[Flipside]

This thread is making me dizzy

[Gank]

Originally posted by Ghostavo


Like I said its basic economics, if you have trouble understanding that theres not really much point in continuing talking to you.

So your basic economics have somehow changed over the last few posts... [/B][/quote]

Umm, no they havent, if you really need that explained you should keep out of the thread. I'll explain it for you anyways.

Actually oil prices are kept deliberatly low for a good reason, higher oil prices mean more interest in other energy sources. If oil prices rise its because there are problems with supply and demand, take for example the Saudis recent statement that $35 a barrel is their new desired price as opposed to the old $22-$28. A increase of 25-33% in oil is going to cause people to look for alternative energy source, which the Saudis do not want seeing as oil is their only way of getting money. Pretty basic economics.

Anyways its in Opecs interest to keep a high oil prices, high prices curb demand, which they are unable to meet:

Very very simple, low prices = more demand, high prices= less demand, Opec not able to meet current demand, prices raised. Not exactly rocket science now is it?

Originally posted by Styxx

You did imply it, and of course I can't, as it's an unprovable point. The fact remains that, unless the US suffers dramatic changes in the future, its support for Israel will remain, and the situation will not change. And you can't prove that the kind of change needed to alter the situation in the middle east will ever occur, so your initial point is invalid. Unless you have a time machine, that is.

Right whatever, no point in continuing this.

Originally posted by Styxx
I didn't bother to find one in english, actually, as the one I had in portuguese raised all points I was addressing quite handily, and I translated the relevant sections.

Yes but this one was published at a time oil was at the highest price in a long time and is obviously refering to that, pity its in portugese and we cant actually read the whole thing. It couldnt be related to the Saudi announcement as it was published two months prior to that.

Originally posted by Styxx
And Ghostavo's comment is true - other countries are only mentioned in passing, and as "having expressed concerns". That doesn't seem to me like an OPEC-wide move. The fact that the Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country most closely connected to US oil interests (except for Iraq right now) is also very interesting.

If you actually read what I originally said it was the Saudis I mentioned, not Opec, you brought them into it. And the fact that Saudi Arabia is most closely connected with US has nothing to do with it, its the fact that Saudi is the world leading oil producer and has 30% of the worlds proven reserves. The other countries are only mentioned in passing, but thats because the Saudis are the big boys and what they say eventually goes.

Originally posted by Styxx
Or what you are saying makes little sense, and it's just a blatant attempt by the US to make the OPEC look like it's to blame.

Ya right, would work if it was the US making the announcements, but seeing how its opec and the Saudis themselves its your statement which makes no sense.

Do yourself a favour and find an english article which backs you up, if I'm as wrong as you say I am it shouldnt be that hard to do.

[Gank]

Originally posted by ionia23
Three cheers for backpedaling.

Three cheers for idiots who cant follow whats being said and just make noises when they think somebodys caught out somebody they dont like

[ionia23]

The part that doesn't make any sense in the whole thing is:

Why would OPEC have any interest whatsoever in lowering oil prices?  Particularly when dealing with the United States, it's not like we're going to cut back on the purchasing of crude oil just because the prices go up.  I think it's known we'll pay whatever it costs.  You could say they have us over a barrel, if you'll pardon the pun.

Deploying alternative energy sources for vehicles along would be a huge expenditure, plus we'd be dealing with 40 years worth of vehicles out there that are depended on fossil fuels.  For now, we're stuck with what is.

[aldo_14]

OPEC have an interest in keeping the price of oil just low enough to prevent governments being forced into developing proper alternative energy sources (BTW, I believe there are hybrid / electric cars coming onto the market now, so that's a very good start).

Plus, if they push the price up too high, then the Arab countries will get invaded.

[ionia23]

Originally posted by aldo_14
OPEC have an interest in keeping the price of oil just low enough to prevent governments being forced into developing proper alternative energy sources (BTW, I believe there are hybrid / electric cars coming onto the market now, so that's a very good start).

Hee.  Yeah, some of the new hybrids available out here are actually pretty sweet.  You even get a tax credit for buying one.  If I could afford it, I'd do it.  The idea of being able to drive from here to Denver, Colorado on a single tank of gas is awfully appealing.  I doubt it's THAT good though.

Of course, you get a bigger tax credit for an SUV apparently.  Go figure that.

[Ghostavo]

Gank, I know the supply/demand principles, but you gave two oposite afirmations... first you said that they were trying to get the prices low, then you said that they were trying to get them high... if you consider that as me not following the discussion, you should be the one to keep out of this thread.

And for god's sake, use the

thing right! I didn't say that, I just quoted from you and said what's below.

[Styxx]

Originally posted by Gank
Very very simple, low prices = more demand, high prices= less demand, Opec not able to meet current demand, prices raised. Not exactly rocket science now is it?

OPEC never stated that they're not able to meet the demand, it's an assertion by your part. Iran, for example, is discovering substantially more large new oil fields than predicted, and they are quite confident. This whole discussion is just a sideline, though, and you still didn't prove with any kind of certainty that Israel will to collapse any time soon - or will you deny having stated that too?.

Originally posted by Gank
Right whatever, no point in continuing this.

Exactly, took you long enough.

Originally posted by Gank
Yes but this one was published at a time oil was at the highest price in a long time and is obviously refering to that, pity its in portugese and we cant actually read the whole thing. It couldnt be related to the Saudi announcement as it was published two months prior to that.

I never said it was related to the Saudi announcement, and it's as relevant as any other recent article. As for the fact that it's in portuguese, feel free to use babelfish or ask for someone to translate the whole article for you if you have so much trouble believing the snippets I posted.

Originally posted by Gank
If you actually read what I originally said it was the Saudis I mentioned, not Opec, you brought them into it. And the fact that Saudi Arabia is most closely connected with US has nothing to do with it, its the fact that Saudi is the world leading oil producer and has 30% of the worlds proven reserves. The other countries are only mentioned in passing, but thats because the Saudis are the big boys and what they say eventually goes.

[...]

Ya right, would work if it was the US making the announcements, but seeing how its opec and the Saudis themselves its your statement which makes no sense.

You're stating that OPEC can't meet the demand, and that's the reason for the high prices, yet provided no actual, clear statement by them for it. I provided a statement from the president of the company that controls oil production in Venezuela, who's a member of OPEC, saying that demand can be met and that prices are artificially inflated by the lack of refinement capacity of the US, which is a major regulator of the oil prices. You dismissed that statement in the basis that anyone under Chavez' government would try to blame the US for anything, while you accept without reservations a Saudi statement, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is comfortably sitting inside the United States' pocket. Interesting, isn't it?

Show me a quote by an official from an OPEC country stating that they can't meet the demand, and I'll accept that you may be right about the oil crisis. The problem with oil alarmists is that they're very similar to the eco alarmists - it's all about "the world is about to end", and no analysis of the full picture. Sure, oil will end someday, but there is a lot of it out there yet, and it's much more probable that current political situations will change of their own accord or other external reasons before we reach the point where decreased supply will be able to cause a major shift.

Originally posted by Gank
Do yourself a favour and find an english article which backs you up, if I'm as wrong as you say I am it shouldnt be that hard to do.

You're the one asserting that a future oil crisis will lead to the collapse of the Israeli state, so feel free to post definitive proof of it instead of wild speculation, or just drop the subject.

[Gank]

Originally posted by Ghostavo
Gank, I know the supply/demand principles, but you gave two oposite afirmations... first you said that they were trying to get the prices low, then you said that they were trying to get them high... if you consider that as me not following the discussion, you should be the one to keep out of this thread.

And for god's sake, use the

thing right! I didn't say that, I just quoted from you and said what's below. [/B]

What I actually said was in the past they've tried to keep it low but they're raising it now, right there in plain english the first time I mentioned it.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FG10Dj01.html
Read this, hopefully it'll help make things clearer for you. Havent time to read it all myself but it seems to be about the right thing.

As for the quote, thats the forums fault, Ionias post did the same thing.

Originally posted by Styxx
OPEC never stated that they're not able to meet the demand, it's an assertion by your part. Iran, for example, is discovering substantially more large new oil fields than predicted, and they are quite confident. This whole discussion is just a sideline, though, and you still didn't prove with any kind of certainty that Israel will to collapse any time soon - or will you deny having stated that too?.

Oil is only being discovered at roughly half the rate it is being used, and Exxon-mobil projects in ten years time demand will be 180% of  what it is now. Regardless of what Opec says, the simple facts are that exploration is not finding enough to replace whats being used at the current rate, let alone future demand.

Originally posted by Styxx
I never said it was related to the Saudi announcement, and it's as relevant as any other recent article. As for the fact that it's in portuguese, feel free to use babelfish or ask for someone to translate the whole article for you if you have so much trouble believing the snippets I posted.

Interesting, I ran it through Babelfish and although its gibberish at parts its kinda understandable. The Venezualans comments were made in responce to Saudi calls to increase production, they say its not neccessary to do so because its the US's fault prices are high. Right after the comments we have this:

Analysts affirm that Venezuela is operating with its maximum capacity and that it does not have idle capacity to increase the production.

Pretty clear here that Venezuela isnt able to increase production and is pointing a finger at anyone handy to get out of it. If you actually use your brain and think about it, what hes saying makes no sense anyways, a lack of refing capability would affect the price of end products like petrol and diesel, not the price of crude oil.

Originally posted by Styxx
You're stating that OPEC can't meet the demand, and that's the reason for the high prices, yet provided no actual, clear statement by them for it. I provided a statement from the president of the company that controls oil production in Venezuela, who's a member of OPEC, saying that demand can be met and that prices are artificially inflated by the lack of refinement capacity of the US, which is a major regulator of the oil prices. You dismissed that statement in the basis that anyone under Chavez' government would try to blame the US for anything, while you accept without reservations a Saudi statement, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is comfortably sitting inside the United States' pocket. Interesting, isn't it?

Opec arent going to come out and say they cant meet demand, as this would cause governments and corporations to start looking at alternative energy sources. They want to milk their only cow for as long as they can, so expect assurances from them from some time. Independant analysts, like the one  quoted above, agree that all countries except Saudi are already operating at maximum capacity. If you want a clear statement from OPEC about the matter dont hold your breath, they're not exactly known for being clear about anything.

As for how this all will affect Israel, lets wait until your able to grasp the basics of whats being said, dont want to overload your brain altogether.

Nother article
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html

[Styxx]

I'm sure analysts connected to the United States oil industry will keep saying that oil is about to run out despite anything the countries actually producing the oil say. And I'm also sure that oil will eventually run out, but that's far from now, farther than most alarmists (and the oil industry) want you to believe, and the likelyhood of a smooth transition to different energy sources is much higher than that of a collapse (or decline to the brink of collapse) of the United States economy and subsequent removal of support to Israel.

That last article you pointed even says that most analysts agree that oil production will stop meeting the demand "still in our lifetimes". That's bloody vague, could be a long time from now, and it's hardly indicative of a soon-to-come crisis that may affect the balance of power in the middle east. Actually, it's a very good indication that they cannot reach a proper consensus, and that they don't have enough data to actually predict the peak of the production curve.

So yeah, go ahead and tell us how all that affects Israel, bacause your failed arguments so far were hardly enough to overload anyone's brain.


And try to refrain from insulting people in future posts, we don't want this to turn into a flame war.

[Gank]

Originally posted by Styxx
I'm sure analysts connected to the United States oil industry will keep saying that oil is about to run out despite anything the countries actually producing the oil say. And I'm also sure that oil will eventually run out, but that's far from now, farther than most alarmists (and the oil industry) want you to believe, and the likelyhood of a smooth transition to different energy sources is much higher than that of a collapse (or decline to the brink of collapse) of the United States economy and subsequent removal of support to Israel.  

Who says these analysts are connected to the US oil industry? thats an assumption on your part with nothing to back it up, in fact the analysts quoted in both articles quite clearly have nothing to do with the oil industry. Also I dont see how you could claim to know better than the "alarmists" or the oil companys, exactly what information do you have that they dont? Blind optimisim and a refusal to listen to facts it seems.

Originally posted by Styxx
That last article you pointed even says that most analysts agree that oil production will stop meeting the demand "still in our lifetimes". That's bloody vague, could be a long time from now, and it's hardly indicative of a soon-to-come crisis that may affect the balance of power in the middle east. Actually, it's a very good indication that they cannot reach a proper consensus, and that they don't have enough data to actually predict the peak of the production curve.

It doesnt say that at all, it quotes one 46 year old saying it will end in his lifetime. As for data being limited, yes it is, reserve figures are given by Oil companys like Shell and BP, and oil producing nations which arent exactly quick to release figures, Saudi reserve figures for example are a state secret. These  figures arent set in stone:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/12/1073877763409.html?from=storyrhs&oneclick=true
So yeah its hard to make accurate predictions, the most accurate so far were made by Hubbard, who correctly predicted US production would peak in the 70s. He gave world production to peak in 2010. Increased demand is causing analysts to move that date closer.

Originally posted by Styxx
So yeah, go ahead and tell us how all that affects Israel, bacause your failed arguments so far were hardly enough to overload anyone's brain.

So my arguments have failed because you've refuted them with the comments of a solitary opec minister whos deflecting attention away from his countries ability to step up production as is quite clearly shown in the article you quoted from. I think I'll save the rest for somebody who's capable of discussing it, you seem unable to understand articles in your own language about the matter.

[Styxx]

Originally posted by Gank
It doesnt say that at all, it quotes one 46 year old saying it will end in his lifetime.

My grandfather died at age 84, and I know many people considerably older than that, above 90 years old. That puts a limit of roughly forty years, discounting any possible medical advances, to his prediction, unless you think he belives he'll die relatively young. That's plenty of time for a smooth transition to alternative energy sources - which is already starting in many countries - to make any prospect of an "oil crisis" moot. Also, the same article says that not all analysts agree that it'll happen so soon, which would give even more time for the "crisis" to be averted.

Originally posted by Gank
So my arguments have failed because you've refuted them with the comments of a solitary opec minister whos deflecting attention away from his countries ability to step up production as is quite clearly shown in the article you quoted from. I think I'll save the rest for somebody who's capable of discussing it, you seem unable to understand articles in your own language about the matter.

No, they failed because you couldn't provide a single fact, only speculation. You claimed that an oil crisis is very close, and that it will seriously affect the current global political situation to the point of causing the collapse of Israel, and it's your job to prove it. Unfounded speculation, which was never confirmed by any OPEC country - and is being outright refuted by at least one of them - proves nothing.

Your argument is based on guesses, and that's just not enough. Post verifiable facts, or be more careful about your claims in the future.

[Ghostavo]

Originally posted by Gank
What I actually said was in the past they've tried to keep it low but they're raising it now, right there in plain english the first time I mentioned it.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FG10Dj01.html
Read this, hopefully it'll help make things clearer for you. Havent time to read it all myself but it seems to be about the right thing.

Originally posted by Gank
Actually oil prices are kept deliberatly low for a good reason, higher oil prices mean more interest in other energy sources.

But I think I got your point... in your own language

Thanks

[Gank]

Originally posted by Ghostavo
But I think I got your point... in your own language

Thanks

You're still having problems with this? Read the whole thing:

Actually oil prices are kept deliberatly low for a good reason, higher oil prices mean more interest in other energy sources.If oil prices rise its because there are problems with supply and demand, take for example the Saudis recent statement that $35 a barrel is their new desired price as opposed to the old $22-$28. A increase of 25-33% in oil is going to cause people to look for alternative energy source, which the Saudis do not want seeing as oil is their only way of getting money.

You see the part right after the bit you quoted, where it says theres problems with supply and demand, thats what this refers too:

Anyways its in Opecs interest to keep a high oil prices, high prices curb demand, which they are unable to meet:

It doesnt contradict the prices being kept low
You obviusly havent got that good a grasp of english as you'd like to think you have.

Originally posted by Styxx


My grandfather died at age 84, and I know many people considerably older than that, above 90 years old. That puts a limit of roughly forty years, discounting any possible medical advances, to his prediction, unless you think he belives he'll die relatively young. That's plenty of time for a smooth transition to alternative energy sources - which is already starting in many countries - to make any prospect of an "oil crisis" moot. Also, the same article says that not all analysts agree that it'll happen so soon, which would give even more time for the "crisis" to be averted.

Eh, no country has started any "smooth transition" to alternative energy yet, because there is no alternative to oil atm, at least one which can compete pricewise. As for averting the crisis, I thought you were arguing there wasnt going to be one in the first place Btw I believe average live expectancy in the US is 77 years according to the CDC, probably best to use this one instead of your grandfathers.

Originally posted by Styxx
No, they failed because you couldn't provide a single fact, only speculation. You claimed that an oil crisis is very close, and that it will seriously affect the current global political situation to the point of causing the collapse of Israel, and it's your job to prove it. Unfounded speculation, which was never confirmed by any OPEC country - and is being outright refuted by at least one of them - proves nothing.

Your argument is based on guesses, and that's just not enough. Post verifiable facts, or be more careful about your claims in the future.

Well if you want facts that will be verified by OPEC ministers, you'll be waiting a long time. Are you that niave that you think OPEC is going to tell us when its time to stop relying on their only milk cow? Ffs, get real. OPEC arent going to tell you anything of the sort until long after its happened, for two simple reasons: they dont want people to start looking at other energy sources while they still have a large amount of the stuff left, and because when the stuff starts to run out, they stand to make an obscene amount of money on it. As for me guessing and speculating what the **** is this?

I'm sure analysts connected to the United States oil industry will keep saying that oil is about to run out despite anything the countries actually producing the oil say.

Speculation

And I'm also sure that oil will eventually run out, but that's far from nowfarther than most alarmists (and the oil industry) want you to believe,

More speculation

and the likelyhood of a smooth transition to different energy sources is much higher than that of a collapse (or decline to the brink of collapse) of the United States economy and subsequent removal of support to Israel.

Again more speculation with nothing behind it.

None of what I've said is unfounded, it has a lot to back it up. Even Janes agrees:
http://www.janes.com/business/news/fr/fr040421_1_n.shtml
Like I said, I'll elaborate more on Israel if needed, but if you're going to wait on Chavezs oil man to confirm everything I've said theres no real point in talking to you.

[Styxx]

Originally posted by Gank
Eh, no country has started any "smooth transition" to alternative energy yet, because there is no alternative to oil atm, at least one which can compete pricewise. As for averting the crisis, I thought you were arguing there wasnt going to be one in the first place Btw I believe average live expectancy in the US is 77 years according to the CDC, probably best to use this one instead of your grandfathers.

No? How come I can go to car store and buy an alcohol-powered car, then go to any service station and fill it up with automotive alcohol right here in Brazil? How come the vast majority of electrical energy here is produced on hydroelectrical plants? There's no transition happening whatsoever, I see.

And I didn't say the oil wasn't going to end - I said there won't be a major international crisis because of it - because it will be "averted" (notice the quote marks) through a smooth transition to other energy sources. Maybe you should do as you keep telling others and read the posts more carefully.

And you can choose whichever age you want, I'm sure whoever said that doesn't actually expect to die soon. Or do you hope the average to apply to you too? If he wanted to say that it would happen in his lifetime, and believed it to be the american average, he could have simply said that it would happen in 31 years, that would be a lot more clear.

Originally posted by Gank
Well if you want facts that will be verified by OPEC ministers, you'll be waiting a long time. Are you that niave that you think OPEC is going to tell us when its time to stop relying on their only milk cow? Ffs, get real. OPEC arent going to tell you anything of the sort until long after its happened, for two simple reasons: they dont want people to start looking at other energy sources while they still have a large amount of the stuff left, and because when the stuff starts to run out, they stand to make an obscene amount of money on it. As for me guessing and speculating what the **** is this?

I want facts, verified by a reputable and trustworthy source. You posted nothing but speculation - it may have a basis in reality, under your own eyes - but it's still only speculation.
 

Originally posted by Gank
Speculation
 
More speculation
 
Again more speculation with nothing behind it.

Yes, speculation, more speculation, and yet more. Just as you posted yourself, perhaps. I, however, didn't make any claims about the collapse of nations based on those same speculations.

Originally posted by Gank
None of what I've said is unfounded, it has a lot to back it up. Even Janes agrees:
http://www.janes.com/business/news/fr/fr040421_1_n.shtml
Like I said, I'll elaborate more on Israel if needed, but if you're going to wait on Chavezs oil man to confirm everything I've said theres no real point in talking to you.

As for the article, yes, oil prices are the highest in nearly 15 years. What they fail to mention is that oil prices adjusted for inflation reached much higher marks in the early eighties, and yet oil didn't end and the world failed to collapse. So much for that argument about high prices being a clear indicator of lack of production capacity, huh? It also shows that Shell has a bunch of incompetent/malicious people working for it, but that's irrelevant.

If you want a source, here's one.

And you could start elaborating on the Israeli issue by providing actual facts to back your statement instead of spewing out the same guesses about an oil crisis again and again.