Author Topic: Wilmaaaaa!!!  (Read 6223 times)

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Offline WeatherOp

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Ok, back to Wilma, winds are down to 160mph, but it still has an amazing pressure of 892mbs. Wilma is also not weakening, but is in the middle of an ERC"Eyewall replacement cycle" So it will likely strengthen latter on again.
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Offline ShadowWolf_IH

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thanks fenrir, i was trying to find the thread that linked to it.
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Offline ShadowWolf_IH

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i am hoping that it is down to a cat 2 or 3 by the time it its miami.....then all we will get is rain and some killer surf here in north florida.

The weather channel (i know i know) was saying that once it enters the jet stream it will make the turn to florida but will also weaken due to shear.

what are your thoughts op?

oops...sorry for the double post
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Offline WeatherOp

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Quote
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i am hoping that it is down to a cat 2 or 3 by the time it its miami.....then all we will get is rain and some killer surf here in north florida.

The weather channel (i know i know) was saying that once it enters the jet stream it will make the turn to florida but will also weaken due to shear.

what are your thoughts op?

oops...sorry for the double post


As, with alot of other people, I have hardly a clue where this is going.

But, if I would go with my gut feeling, whitch can ofter be wrong, thank goodness, is it heading towards Florida, but the front will stall, and be just enough to push it.

The sheer will stay up north, and this will not weaken, I'm more worried about this storm than Kat or Rita. The US has been spared two direct hits from Cat.5 hurricanes this year, Something tells me, we will not be as lucky this time.:sigh:

Worse case senario, Hits Florida as a Cat.5 hurricane, turns up the east coast and barrels into NY city or Boston, bringing a incredible storm surge.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2005, 05:06:10 pm by 2303 »
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Offline ShadowWolf_IH

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please tell me that wasn't the sugar coated version of how you could have put it.

Maybe i should move to kansas.
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Offline WeatherOp

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Quote
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
please tell me that wasn't the sugar coated version of how you could have put it.

Maybe i should move to kansas.


How far are you down, if you're up around Daytona, or Jacksonville I think you're fine, you will probley get some rain, some wind that might knock out your power. However if you are below Orlando, even on the other side of Florida you need to pay great attention.

And once again they scarey part is the strength, this is at Super Typhoon levels, we has no idea how this is gonna act. This thing broke the record with no effort.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2005, 05:16:13 pm by 2303 »
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Offline ShadowWolf_IH

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half hour south of Jax, in St Augustine.
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Offline WeatherOp

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Quote
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
half hour south of Jax, in St Augustine.


Well you look to be in good shape ;), just watch it, and makes sure it doesn't decide to come up that way.Since no body, including the NHC has a clue.
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Offline karajorma

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Quote
Originally posted by Mongoose
Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time.  


It's really ironic you should say that seeing as how the only evidence for the 30 year cycle you mentioned is 2 points on a graph.
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Offline Sandwich

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I do not understand why people choose to live in Florida. I lived there for 10 years, and I still don't get it. It's hot. It's humid. It's flat. And it's God's Bowling Alley. Seriously, folks, why?
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Offline Mongoose

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Quote
Originally posted by karajorma


It's really ironic you should say that seeing as how the only evidence for the 30 year cycle you mentioned is 2 points on a graph.

I had no idea about the legitimacy of the 30-year claim; I was just throwing it out there as something I had heard about.  If that really is the only evidence, then I'll agree that it's not too much more than speculation.  I also think that a lot of people mistook the meaning behind my post.  I'm by no means saying that global warming is a myth, or that there's no evidence to support it other than what the hurricane season can show.  What I am saying is that one or two hurricane seasons with higher-than-normal activity cannot immediately be taken as an indicator for how prevalent global warming is.  It's simply not enough data.

About the "ten years being too late" claim:  I hate to say it, but even if the human race were to completely cease all CO2 production as of this moment, the global temperature would still continue to climb due to what's already in the atmosphere.  In that respect, finding a correlation after ten years wouldn't really make that much of a difference.

Sandwich, I'll agree with you about not wanting to live in Florida.  I like winter far too much to move somewhere that rarely/never gets any snow. :p

 

Offline Sandwich

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Hey, let's not go THAT far - I think there's a place in Northern Florida that got snow. Once. In recorded history... :doubt:
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"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 

Offline WeatherOp

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Wilma has weakened to a Strong Cat.4 hurricane with winds of 155mph but stll with a very low pressure of 894mbs, and is expected to restrengthen tommorow.
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Offline aldo_14

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Quote
Originally posted by Mongoose

I had no idea about the legitimacy of the 30-year claim; I was just throwing it out there as something I had heard about.  If that really is the only evidence, then I'll agree that it's not too much more than speculation.  I also think that a lot of people mistook the meaning behind my post.  I'm by no means saying that global warming is a myth, or that there's no evidence to support it other than what the hurricane season can show.  What I am saying is that one or two hurricane seasons with higher-than-normal activity cannot immediately be taken as an indicator for how prevalent global warming is.  It's simply not enough data.

About the "ten years being too late" claim:  I hate to say it, but even if the human race were to completely cease all CO2 production as of this moment, the global temperature would still continue to climb due to what's already in the atmosphere.  In that respect, finding a correlation after ten years wouldn't really make that much of a difference.
 


Um... the whole point is stopping would be to prevent an irreversible (in our lifetimes) climatic change.  I believe it's been predicted that could occur within 10-15 years, even assuming other contributing events (release of gas from frozen peat) don't happen.  

Besides which, what you're implying is that it's not even worth bothering taking precautions or considering it, because we're all doomed anyway.  Which, to me, is a mite daft and short-sighted.

Oh, and Wilma from space (ISS)


Quote
Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i have an uneducated guess........

The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile.  i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing.  Remember last december?  the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble?  Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this?  it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.

Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.


We don't wobble.  The earth wobbled; about 2.5-6cm.  But this impact (I think lengthening a day by about 3 millionths of a second) would be pretty swiftly overridden by the tidal effects of the moon.

Also, the Earth has a natural wobble owing to it's tilt (trying to 'right' itself), and also the 'Chandler wobble', which occurs as the earth is not rotating around it's centre of inertia.  AFAIK the Chandler wobble also is affected by inputs of energy like asteroid impact or quake.  

So the tsunami quake is scarcely a unique event and, AFAIK, none of these wobbles has even been linked to climatological change (particularly in the case of warming the planet, and especially with regards to the known causes of a greenhouse effect).

 

Offline WeatherOp

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Possible the worse thing that could happen, is happening. Wilma's 2 mile wide eye has fell apart over night in the ERC, but no it appears to be getting ready to end that cycle.

The new eye is over 45 miles wide, and even tho Wilma has weakened  down 145mph, it's wind field has doubled or tripled. Once it's new eye forms completly, instead of have a 7 mile wide path of destuction, you are gonna have a 50-70 mile wide one. And it is expected to strenthen today.

Also, Wilma is also changing it's form into what is called an "annular" hurricane, these types of hurricanes keep their strength far longer than normal hurricanes, and rarely have ERCs.

Also on top of that, with an huge eye, Wilma will also bring a huge storm surge over 20 feet high.

This could spell distaster for Southern Florida.:sigh:

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Offline aldo_14

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When is it expected to hit?

 

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Last edited by StratComm on 08-23-2027 at 08:34 PM

 

Offline aldo_14

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