[karajorma]

My interpretation is that depending on the type of administrators in charge of Sol at the time the subspace pathway is reopened, the situation does have a possibility of degenerating into open hostilities.

Would you want your only point of entry and exit to be controlled by someone else? Especially if the possibility exists that the party in control may attempt to hold that advatage to gain some type of concessions from you? Under the situations that have been discussed (Terran military build up, decades of fear of extinction) it is very easy to see a war starting. Perhaps the administration of Sol would insist in taking control of the Terran parts of the GTVA... There are a lot of possibilities though.

I'm not saying there would be a conflict, just that the possibility does exist, and it is not that far fetched. Neither is the idea that Terra might come out on top in any conflict with the colonies, especially if the Vasudans stay out of it.

That's pretty much my thinking on the matter. Sol could have nuked itself into oblivion, it could have been invaded by Shivans, it could be sitting there waiting for GTVA or it could start a war.

Any of those possibilities seems quite possible to me.

[TrashMan]

If that's what you've been doing you really need to tell your earlier posts.

Sol fighting against the GTVA? That would be not only terribly stupid but also suicidal.

Realisticly, Sol has no real chance in a war, it's simply outclassed in manpower, industry and versatility.

Doesn't sound like a fair and balanced appraisal of the chances that Sol could fight aand win a war against the rest of the GTVA to me. You flat out claimed they'd lose. The entire tone of your argument has been that the GTVA would always win and that there are no conditions under which Sol could be more powerful. I'd have dropped the entire matter several pages back if you were saying that Sol going to war was a reasonable possibility even if you think that it not going to war is more likely (Hell that's the position I hold but I'm not going to flat out state that a situation like in Inferno is suicidal or stupid).

If you want to take a more reasonable line on the whole thing now that's fine but don't try to claim that's been your position the entire time. I really don't think you're going to fool anyone into believing that.

That's my take on what would most likely happen. I don't recall claiming that that statement was 100% correct, that it can't possibly be another outcome. My 2most probable" and your "most probable" don't even have to be the same.

that said, in that sentance I wasn't even trying to give a statistical overview, but rather my own, subjective view of what would happen.

[TrashMan]

When Vasuda Prime was flattened by the SD Lucifer, the following briefing text was given:

Aftermath of Vasuda Attack

Most escaping transport ships were destroyed.  All major Vasudan cities were leveled, and most of the landmass was rendered uninhabitable.  All of our attacks launched from the nearby installations were defeated. 

We have lost contact with all Terran ships in the area, but it appears that the Shivan fleet has now moved on.  It’s estimated that four billion innocent Vasudans lost their lives in the attack.

This was the Vasudan home world, and probably the most heavily populated Vasudan settlement period. Colonies would generally be much smaller in over all populace. Just how small though is open to guesswork.

Question is - how many vasudans left Vasuda Prime before the Lucifer came? How many survived the bombardment? How many left the cities? How much is "most" of the transports? 6/10? 8/10?
Another thing to consider is what was the vasudan colonizations policy. Maby far more vasudans were prone to leaving Vasuda Prime and settling on other colonies than humans?

My personal take is that all of these colonies together probably have a lower population than the home system. If, as has been stated, Capella's 250 million people is considered a dense population, What is considered sparse? Additionally, how many of these colonies and outposts are densly populated, and how many not? Even if the twelve major colonies all have 250,000,000, then 12 * 250,000,000 = 3,000,000,000.

Now if for the sake of argument, if we give the outposts the same population allowance as the planet colonies, it works out: (12+15) * 250,000,000 = 6,750,000,000.

The current population of Terra according to the U.S. Census Bureau : 6,638,068,993...  Hmmm...

I've given the best information I could find. I think the statistics more likely support Sol as having the greater population. As far as resources go, there is enormous wealth available all over the solar system. Definitely enough to support a large scale armanent build up over an extended period of time. Terra would easily have the population it would need to support its building and research programs.

Dense population can have multiple meanings - as in, a lot of people in a small space. Could be that all Capellans were crammed into one city. Or it could be densly populated for it's age/colony type, not densly populated in general

Nevermind.... you got to admit that the FS universe is very interesting

[karajorma]

Question is - how many vasudans left Vasuda Prime before the Lucifer came? How many survived the bombardment? How many left the cities? How much is "most" of the transports? 6/10? 8/10?

Thing is questions like that don't help your case. You're the one trying to claim that the GTVA must be more powerful because of it's larger population. If you're pointing out that the data on which the population of the GTVA is based on is shaky than that makes your entire chain of logic suspect too.

That's my take on what would most likely happen. I don't recall claiming that that statement was 100% correct, that it can't possibly be another outcome. My 2most probable" and your "most probable" don't even have to be the same.

I never said that Sol starting a war is the most probable outcome. I simply said that it's a possible one. You repeatedly stated that the chance was very small, and it would be a certain defeat for Sol if it did happen and that the GTVA IS more powerful. In fact the last 3-4 pages of your posts have been little more than you claiming that it's more powerful for increasingly spurious reasons.

That's where you're making massive assumptions and stacking all the variables your way blind to the fact that they could just as easily stack in the other direction.

You've repeatedly asserted that the GTVA has a larger population than Sol based on no evidence whatsoever. You've repeatedly asserted it must have a better economy and resource exploitation again on no evidence. You're not giving a fair and balanced view no matter how hard you want to claim that you are.

I've repeatedly stated that I don't think that the GTVA and Sol going to war is the only possible or even most likely outcome. So why the hell you thought that you needed to disagree with me if you really think that Sol going to war is a distinct possibility is a complete mystery to me.

To state it simply.

1) I don't think Sol going to war with the GTVA is the most likely possibility
2) I do however think it is a reasonable one and if someone wants to make a campaign based on that I'm not going to argue with them or say it's not possible, unlikely or suicidal.
3) Sol's power coming out of its exile is going to be dependent on the degree of economic damage it suffered after the node was sealed as well as a variety of other factors that could see Sol coming out more powerful than the entire GTVA, simply as a powerful system or as a economic ruin requiring the GTVAs help to rebuild. Which one is most likely is a matter of how you set up a bunch of assumptions and it's rather foolish to try to say one is more certain that than another. Even the game states that GTVA academics couldn't decide which one is more likely and they'd have more data to base that assumption on than we ever will.

[TrashMan]

Thing is questions like that don't help your case. You're the one trying to claim that the GTVA must be more powerful because of it's larger population. If you're pointing out that the data on which the population of the GTVA is based on is shaky than that makes your entire chain of logic suspect too.

This is, we don't have no actualy data on he population of Sol or the GTVA. We're making conjectures based on 2 sentances taht realyl don't effer much insight on the matter..
So there's nothing suspicios about my logic.

[karajorma]

Your entire chain of logic is based on such conjecture. Every single link is shaky. You haven't made a single argument yet that couldn't be shot full of holes.

[TrashMan]

Your entire chain of logic is based on such conjecture. Every single link is shaky. You haven't made a single argument yet that couldn't be shot full of holes.

Neither have you...

[karajorma]

Not true. Besides as so frequently happens in these discussions I don't need to prove I'm right. I just need to prove you're wrong.

[eliex]

 Cool it, peoples. This is if
In Halo, it says that when the max population of Earth (which was about 10billion) only then were the humans actually forced
to migrate to Mars, or somewhere in Sol.

So Sol has around 10 billion people already, not to mention all the other population from other Planets which are sure to ally with Earth.
 

[Hellbender]

In Halo, it says that when the max population of Earth (which was about 10billion) only then were the humans actually forced
to migrate to Mars, or somewhere in Sol.

I'm afraid you're comparing apples to oranges - Halo is a completely different universe setting. What works in one will not really equate with the other. You can try and compare them, but it's not really worthwhile because of the differences underlying each story on the base level.

[brandx0]

In terms of population, The UN expects the Earth's population to grow to 9 billion by 2050, barring some mass extinction event.  It expects the population to eventually cap itself at around 10-11 billion, though the reasons for this are not agreed upon yet.  It's doubtful, once again barring mass extinction, that the population will ever decrease significantly without returning to its former level within a couple generations.

Also note that the UN has considered Macroviruses such as AIDS in their estimates, as seen on their population assumptions page:
http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4

With this in mind, it's not totally unreasonable to suggest that the population of all mankind over the freespace timeline to have reached 11 billion, if not even more perhaps, given that in the printed material and game sources there are no mentions of any such mass extinction event.

[eliex]

 I'm simply using that as an example to back up my statement.
Besides, that universe along with this universe refers to the same planet: Earth.

And it's not as if the Halo universe drastically changed the settings for Earth. In fact, it gives an extremely certain fact about Earth, something that can't be speculated as it is here in Freespace.

Now, don't think that I'm criticizing what V tells us players, but I'm just making a point.

[TrashMan]

Not true. Besides as so frequently happens in these discussions I don't need to prove I'm right. I just need to prove you're wrong.

My dear Kaj, you can repeat that statement a million times but it won't become any truer

[karajorma]

The difference is that I'm not saying that Earth will win a war. Only that it might. I've never said that it's a foregone conclusion that it will win while you have said that it definitely will lose.

You're the one who made the assertion that you're correct. I just need to create reasonable doubt that you could be wrong.


You can't counter me saying "Earth might have a population of 11 billion" with "It might not" It doesn't matter that it might not. All I have to prove is that if it does your entire house of cards argument comes crashing down. I haven't build a house of cards. I haven't made any claims as to what I think would happen and said that the other position is impossible. You can't destroy my argument by saying "That might not be true" because at each and every step I've already acknowledged it might not be true.

That's the danger of making assertions. If they're wrong then the entire chain of logic falls apart.

[TrashMan]

I didn't say it's impossible. I said that I think GTVA will win hands down.

What I think will happen in FS future (FS3 anyone) and what might/could happen are two differetn things.

[AlphaOne]

Well TMan i have to dissagree with you abou the GTVA winnin hands down! Sure Sol might be a bi less developed in some areas then the GTVA but it might be a lot more developed then the GTVA in other areas! Also i agree that Sol population would be at least equal if not more then that of the entire GTVA !

However that is besides the point! Cuz right now i think you might be some sort of shivan agent infiltated deep into the heart of the HL comunity! So anyone run a byo check on him and if he shows even the smallest iregularitie beam him good perhaps using a Mjolnir

Just joking here!

he posibilaties of a war are very real however the posibilaties that there might be no war to speak of are stronger.

Also i do believe some sort of small skirmishes between some lunatics o fanatics like the NTF or HOL and the rest of SOL/GTVA milatary migh also happen but that is about it! Lets not forget we are talking about the cradle of terran civilization something which well lets say is he jewel of the crown for all terrans.

And i dont think the vasudans would be too upset either if anithing they might actualy be glad something like this happenes.


There was also the posibilaty that there might be a war between the terrans and the vasudans. I say this has even weaker chances of happening then Sol gooing to an all out war with the GTVA over the way they cook they patotoes.

The Vasudans are by no means weak and if i understood the game corectly they might actualy have more cap ships left then the terrans. We already know they have a better economy and infrastrucure. Not to mention overall better tech.

[karajorma]

I didn't say it's impossible. I said that I think GTVA will win hands down.

And that's my point. I only to to prove that Sol would win if different but reasonable assumptions are made to show that you could easily be wrong.

[TrashMan]

Well TMan i have to dissagree with you abou the GTVA winnin hands down! Sure Sol might be a bi less developed in some areas then the GTVA but it might be a lot more developed then the GTVA in other areas! Also i agree that Sol population would be at least equal if not more then that of the entire GTVA !

Sure you do. Everyone has an oppinion and yours is as valid as mine
The world would be pretty boring if everyone thought like me, no? (alltough it wozuld be rather peacefull and safe )

And that's my point. I only to to prove that Sol would win if different but reasonable assumptions are made to show that you could easily be wrong.

And when did I say that I couldn't possibly be wrong?
The only thing this debate has proven is that the info given to us by the game is not enough to come to a really probabable solution, since, dependgin how you interpret the info, it can go both ways.
But then again this is pretty much like any debate we had over FS universe (remeber the battleship debate? Oh, good ol' times )

[Koth]

I remember THAT Battleship debate. With dread and fear. Then were was that Sathanas debate. And that religious debate. Seriously, can't you guys just get along peacefully?

[karajorma]

The only thing this debate has proven is that the info given to us by the game is not enough to come to a really probabable solution, since, dependgin how you interpret the info, it can go both ways.

That's pretty much what I've been trying to get you to say since this started.

Had you simply said "Fair point but I think Sol would probably lose" here. I would have said that's a fair opinion even if I disagree with it and that would have been the end of the matter.