[Flipside]

The seeds of the GTVA were sown before the destruction of the Lucifer, there was already an alliance, I don't think there'd be that much surprise.

[karajorma]

1. To blockade a node you have to know a node is there in the first place and have time to organize it.
The Sol-DS node collapsed. Earth ships would have no reason to blockade that part of space for 40 years or so.
If the GTVA opens the node and immediately send a large force trough they would secure a beachead, even if for some strange reason Sol had a small blockade there.

And the GTVA would do that why? I very much doubt the GTVA would be ready for Sol to turn on them. And even if they did consider it a possibility I doubt they'd then want to provoke Sol but sending a well armed fleet into Sol immediately upon opening the node.

2. GTA vs. PVN led to a 14-year long war. That's Earth + all of it's colonies vs. Vasuda and it's colonies. Now we have Earth vs. everyone else. You really think they can match that? Obviously the GTVA built new ships and weapons so it's doing quite OK and has enough infrastructure.

Did you forget that Vasuda Prime was destroyed? That's an enormous chunk of the Vasudan war making machine gone. If Earth and Vasuda were responsible for 80% of each side's power base that would leave Sol with still 80% - whatever it lost from the node closing and the GTVA with 40% + whatever they built up in the intervening years.

So the sums could go any way you want. Maybe Sol is weak or maybe it's very strong. Yet again you're making assumptions on data you don't have. I'm most certainly not going to say Sol wouldn't have a chance against the rest of the GTVA. What chance they have depends on what percentage of the GTA's power they were and how well they survived isolation.

3. Even assuming Earth faired excellently, IIRC the 1st fleet was stationed there (1-2 Destroyers). While Earth certanly didn't say still neither did the GTVA. There's also a question of how many ships would Earth build, since it's only one system. There's only a fixed numbers that is can support, or even more important - that it's willing to support. There's usually 1 fleet per system, and I kinda don't thing Earth will have 20+ destroyers at any point, especially after 40 years of no outside threat.

Sol presumably doesn't know that the Shivans lost the Great War. They could be sitting there waiting for the Shivans to reopen the node. The GTVA built the Colossus even though they knew they had won. I'd expect at least as much from Sol and probably a lot more.

As for support, Capella, headquarters of the 3rd Fleet has a population of 250 million. What the population of Sol would by then is debatable but even assuming that they have 6 billion that's 24 times the population of Capella. Assuming that scales it would mean a fleet 24 times larger. As big as the assumed size of the entire GTVA fleet in other words.

And I don't think it's unreasonable for them to build that many ships if they think the Shivans are coming back.

4. GTVA has terrans and vasudans working together on a large scale and also studying shivan tech. There are only several vasudan on Earth at best, and I doubt any of them are scientists. Regardless, the GTVA research potential is surely greater, even if Earth has the Lucy debris. It's not like GTVA hasn't captures and scanned a lot of newer shivan craft.

Fair point but the question has to be how that balances against the extra time that Sol had due to not having to bother with reconstruction of their homeworld. Sol probably had access to everything that the GTI got out of the Shivans. They might even have had the only copies of some of this info. Sol may also have had access to everything the Hades Rebellion had. Hell they might have been building the first Hades but when they were cut off the GTI nicked the plans and came up with a master plan to use them.

5. GTVA has node-collapsing ability. Earth wouldn't be able to make any credible attack under threat of a renewed isolation.

Fair point but it is only likely they'd do that while Sol forces were still in Sol. As soon as they invade Delta Serpentis it becomes very unlikely they'd seal a node and cut off both the old and new Terran capitals along with all the GTVA systems in the Ross 128 section of the GTVA.

[Flipside]

My first option would be to send through a probe saying, basically, 'Hello, it's us, we've fixed the node, still allied with the Vasudans, if you can, reply, if we don't hear in 24 hours, we're sending though a investigation team.'

[karajorma]

Bah, you should send a note through saying "Party in Alpha Centauri next week. Khonsu II says bring bottle and bird."

[terran_emperor]

 

[TrashMan]

By bottom line is, that Sol, regardless of how big and well developed it is, is still just ONE system. While the GTVA has 20. Less developed, smaller, but it's still 20.

And it's a safe bet that Sol had it's troubles with the isolation too. Think of all the trade and $ influx lost in an instant. I bet most companies had their HQ in Sol and most companies in Sol earned most of their $  from deals with the other colonies.
Just think what would happen in the US is suddenly to get isolated from the rest of the world. Utter chaos and economical collapse.

I'm just not seeing Sol as a real threat to the GTVA - either in pure material/resource way or the mentality way. Like I said, Sol going to war against the GTVA is such a stupid idea (no offense to anyone in the INF team), that I find it hard it could ever happen.

[Snail]

I would think there would be a bit of friction but maybe not outright war.

[karajorma]

By bottom line is, that Sol, regardless of how big and well developed it is, is still just ONE system. While the GTVA has 20. Less developed, smaller, but it's still 20.

Tell you what. Let's play global war. I'll have Russia and you can have all of Africa. That's 50 countries to my 1.

Game begins.

Trashman begins massing troops in Egypt for an invasion.
Karajorma launches a massive thermonuclear strike

Game over. Karajorma wins.



You can keep repeating your 20-1 mantra all you like. It means **** all unless you can prove that the GTVA systems are as developed as Sol is.

And it's a safe bet that Sol had it's troubles with the isolation too. Think of all the trade and $ influx lost in an instant. I bet most companies had their HQ in Sol and most companies in Sol earned most of their $  from deals with the other colonies.
Just think what would happen in the US is suddenly to get isolated from the rest of the world. Utter chaos and economical collapse.

Probably. But even if it did collapse so did the Terran half of the GTVA. And Sol would have been a better position to rebuild. Same as America would be.

[Marcus Vesper]

I actually agree with Trashman on this one, something about Earth going to war against the GTVA just seems patently ridiculous.  As for population size/production capacity, citing population figures as if they actually mean anything in a military context is a red herring.  North Korea has the worlds largest standing army, but a measly population, because most of the population IS the army.

As for production capacity, I understood Earth was the major hub of R&D, not necessarily a major source of raw materials for said production though.  Additional resources are one of the reasons for expansion in the first place, and Earth has just been cut off from all it's colonies.  Think Great Britain and it's empire (the sun never set on it): Why pay to import the things you lack when you can expand into the places they came from?

A lot of the technical innovations in the modern fleet have been collaborative efforts with the Vasudans, and they do seem to have a definite advantage in certain fields (reactor design, engines, their beams are better), so assuming Earth would have ships that are our equals or betters after being dramatically cut off from the rest of the known universe and recovering from the (quite logical) discord that would bring....strikes me as a VERY big assumption.  That they would be hostile to the GTVA after we rescue them from isolation just feels....well, like a stupid idea. 

Whether campaigns based on that premise are entertaining or not is an entirely different matter, but the premise itself is hardly compelling.

[karajorma]

I'm not saying that Sol is more powerful. I'm saying it's silly to say they couldn't be more powerful.

I actually agree with Trashman on this one, something about Earth going to war against the GTVA just seems patently ridiculous.  As for population size/production capacity, citing population figures as if they actually mean anything in a military context is a red herring.  North Korea has the worlds largest standing army, but a measly population, because most of the population IS the army.

So you have to ask yourself why NK has such a large army. Which is exactly what Trashman hasn't been doing. As I said before Sol may not know the war has been over for 30 years. They might have been preparing ships and weapons at great economic cost for the last 30 years. They could be nearly bankrupt with a massive military completely disproportionate to their economy.

And then the GTVA open the portal and swan in all fat and happy with bulging money sacks. Still think in that context that Sol might not start a war? Especially if they can create a reason to sell to the population based around some political nonsense (like joining the GTVA or ratifying BETAC).

As for production capacity, I understood Earth was the major hub of R&D, not necessarily a major source of raw materials for said production though.  Additional resources are one of the reasons for expansion in the first place, and Earth has just been cut off from all it's colonies.  Think Great Britain and it's empire (the sun never set on it): Why pay to import the things you lack when you can expand into the places they came from?

Until the GTVA gas mined the nebula Sol was the only place the GTA could get argon for the Prometheus for one thing. That sounds like at least in one area they have better resource production capabilities than the GTVA does. Furthermore Sol is obviously going to be the most exploited system. Especially if intrasystem jump engines were invented before intersystem ones were. As long as those mines aren't tapped out it's quite possible that Sol can out produce anything else in the Terran half of the GTVA simply because they have been doing it the longest.

A lot of the technical innovations in the modern fleet have been collaborative efforts with the Vasudans, and they do seem to have a definite advantage in certain fields (reactor design, engines, their beams are better), so assuming Earth would have ships that are our equals or betters after being dramatically cut off from the rest of the known universe and recovering from the (quite logical) discord that would bring....strikes me as a VERY big assumption.

Again I didn't assume they were. Trashman assumed they weren't.

We have no idea on the number of Vasudan scientists in Sol. There could actually have been quite a few of them. The GTA and PVN were collaborating on things like shielding very quickly after the start of the Great War. It's quite reasonable that much of this research went on in the two most powerful systems, Sol and Vasuda Prime. So lets not assume that Sol doesn't have access to Vasudan tech. They might have access to quite a bit of it. 

Secondly you mentioned NK before and it's worth pointing out that they are now a nuclear power despite being one of the most isolated countries in the world. Necessity is the mother of invention and a world that is expecting a Shivan armada to pour into their system at any minute would be spending a much larger sum on R&D than the GTVA ever would. The GTVA after all only seems to spend large sums on R&D during war time. The fact that the NTF seem to be using mainly Great War era fighters seems to show that they weren't that uncommon before the start of the NTF rebellion. So the GTVA might only have been spending large sums on R&D the 18 months before the 2nd Great War. While Sol could easily have been doing that for 40 years.

[TrashMan]

Tell you what. Let's play global war. I'll have Russia and you can have all of Africa. That's 50 countries to my 1.

Game begins.

Trashman begins massing troops in Egypt for an invasion.
Karajorma launches a massive thermonuclear strike

Game over. Karajorma wins.

You forget to factor in that my side has nukes too
More of them.

A more correct comparison would be russia vs Europe, Africa, South America and a few random Asian countries.

[karajorma]

You forget to factor in that my side has nukes too
More of them.

Either your understanding of the world as it is today is even less rooted in reality than I thought it was or you're attempting to turn an analogy into one of those stupid forum battles where you think that cause you type something it makes it true.

South Africa is the only country in Africa with nukes. It has next to none and it lacks the delivery system to hit Russia.

A more correct comparison would be russia vs Europe, Africa, South America and a few random Asian countries.

Unless you include China or India that's still a losing battle. Which kinda proves my point. What matters is each sides capacity to make war. Not just a simple numerical comparison of the number of systems they control.

[Bob-san]

I think it's reasonable that Sol has easily 5 fleets worth of ships. Those ships are likely a combination of proven Great War relics, highly-upgraded relics, and brand new technology. Seeing an Ursa Mk.III wouldn't surprise me--nor would a Prometheus Mk.IV. They would likely take tried and true ships and weapons to make sure that new tech's flaws don't stop a war effort.

Anyways--I think it's actually safe to assume that Sol had 100% of the information on the Shivans upon about 1 hour before the node collapsed. They also have ALL the Lucifer's debris--so it's quite likely any Hades-esque ships they design, build, and upgrade will be will be much better then our Hades. Completely shielded, the best-of-the-best weapons, and probably even planet-razing weapons. In short--I think it's safe to assume that, if in a war with the GTVA, their Lucifer rip-off would tear apart most every ship we have.

[Mad Bomber]

They also have ALL the Lucifer's debris

Not true. Watch the endgame cutscene again. Sol has half the Lucifer's debris (tho they did indeed get a relatively intact "arm", complete with damaged flux cannon).

[Kie99]

I think the GTA would be extremely strong.  Unless the Colonies decided to produce as many children as they possibly could, the population of Sol would dwarf them.  The total Earth population would be bigger unless there had been Billions of people deciding to leave Sol as soon as Subspace was discovered, bearing in mind there is an interstellar war going on, this is unlikely.  The GTVA may have better resources, but as a centre of industry, Sol would be much more powerful.  When the Lucifer looked as if it would destroy Earth, it was talked of as an extinction level event.  If there were anything like the amount of people outside Sol as inside Sol it wouldn't have been as big a deal.

[eliex]

 Hey. but why are we now all of a sudden talking that the Sol people would now start making a war - i mean, humans are STUCK in their Sol system. Get boring, especially since they can travel quite well. Lonely too.

 Uh, excuse me for JI'ing into your, uh what was it again? Ah yes, your forum battle but surely kara, that even if the GTVA were so outdated by the Terrans, then the Terrans in the GTVA are so interested in space <obviously> so maybe they'll do anything at all costs.
Sheer numbers could overwhelm sheer technology.
If Sol had 100 Meson Bombs, there would still be a reasonable GTVA force left to fight.

[Flipside]

Why would either side go in guns blazing in the first place? That's what confuses me. There are some possible reasons, one of which is used in Inferno, but, at the ends of the day, the odds are pretty high that the GTVA is not going to build a Knossos to Earth just to send a War-group through, and it's also unlikely that Earth is going to resist the chance to re-establish its Empire and the resources/knowledge that would include access to.

The GTVA is mostly still in concept stage, whilst the ships work together, they are still, for the main part Terran and Vasudan ships, battlegroups and command groups, even if there is an over-arching governance that is mixed-race, in fact its very existence was put under strain by the NTF, had the Shivans not arrived, it may well have fractured under its own differences.

Earth would still be the political centre of an entire race, people on Earth know that, and so do the people in the GTVA, they aren't trying to get back purely because they need the resources, they are trying to get back because it is their home.

I don't think Earth would even want to resist rejoining the GTVA, there is no way it could get less out of it than it already has.

Edit: Oh, and regarding the discussion that is ensuing in here, think Londo and G'Kar, though I refuse to state which is which....

[Polpolion]

Hey. but why are we now all of a sudden talking that the Sol people would now start making a war - i mean, humans are STUCK in their Sol system. Get boring, especially since they can travel quite well. Lonely too.

Hey, we're stuck on our planet right now, and there's only 6.7 billion of us, as opposed to however many would be 350 years from now. How come we're not suffering from boredom and loneliness?

[NGTM-1R]

Sol may have superior manpower, but in some respects I think they probably had to play catch-up, as the demands of the 14-Year-War for forward bases capable of repairing and resupplying the GTA's warships would have placed much of the GTA's military infrastructure closer to the front lines, while there were safer (supposedly) systems for important research and development; Ross 128 and Laramis, for example, are further from Vasudan lines then Sol. The GTA was testing their prototype shielding before the Great War in Ross 128; Laramis became the headquarters of RNI Shipyards, who produced some of the most cutting-edge ships the GTVA had. The GTVA's Terran fleets were not, apparently, significantly weaker than their Great War-era strength. Probably stronger even. Nor were the Vasudan fleets substantially weaker. Sol has much less to start from.

Similarly, even if Earth was the major horsepower behind the GTA, there is the matter of the Vasudans, who fought the GTA to a standstill lest we forget. They lost Vasuda Prime, but the Terran colonies would at the least make up for the slack from that, while their subtraction from any possible Solar war effort must mean that it would not be as powerful as that of the GTA of old; perhaps not by much, but it would. Thus Sol's military power would be doubly damaged.

Thus I think at best in a military confrontation Sol could hope for stalemate. At worst, badly outmatched. However I view the likelyhood of military confrontation as slim. There is no real valid reason for one side or the other to want it. The GTVA starting it is a slim possiblity at best; its leaders can probably remember when their home was accessible. Sol starting it is perhaps slightly more reasonable, but not much.

In the end, lest we forget, not long enough has truely passed to seperate them so greatly. The leaders on both sides would perhaps have been 20 when the node was cut. There would still be direct relationships of family on both sides. Brother against brother is never something undertaken on a whim.

[terran_emperor]

Ultimatley, the Reactionis whatever the storyteller makes it...

Terran Civil War between GTVA/Sol gov

Peaceful Earth

Sol in complete anachy...

Whatever...

It all depends on the person telling the story