I'm not going to go through and pick that post apart piece by piece, and the beginning of it is actually fairly well structured, but you miss one important part.
The Second Battle of Neptune was a snoozer. The 16th BG jumped in expecting a fight to take the planet, and instead found it almost totally undefended. For whatever its strategic ramifications, it was not a large capital ship fight. There are a grand total of four canon and explored large engagements before War in Heaven, and three of them happen within days of the 14th arriving in Sol. Only one that you have listed happens after Admiral Severanti adopts the policy of low-level conflict.
So? Within days or not, they still happened and had a tremendous impact on the next 18+ months. Your point is overall good, though.
Okay, so the one you mentioned is...the ambush of the GTD Requiem, right? The Toutatis is implied to have been deployed at least once before the events of WiH--unless the tech entries for all of the Solaris-class destroyers (and the class itself) only canonically exist *after* the events of Delenda Est?
Additionally, Narayanas did not exist as artillery frigates until fairly recently. As one of the project members for BP:Tev, I would also adore it if you could point me toward any of those incidents you're talking about.
Eh? Then were they refitted to be artillery frigates just before WiH? Then when did they figure out that the Narayana class just couldn't work as the heavy, close-up brawler that it was originally intended to be? Was it just extrapolation? And if they were only used very recently, then why does their tech entry imply that they'd had major impacts on engagements through their artillery fire alone? And what were those Narayanas doing for the past 18 months, if they never fought in a battle or were under refits?
And, if you would, allow me to clarify what I meant in the latter half of my post.
The GTVA can't afford those losses from a public relations standpoint. They have to be winning the war, not fighting the war, for the support from home to keep coming. If it dries up, so do they. Trading ship for ship in brutal, ship-heavy slugfests is exactly what the GTVA cannot afford.
True, very true. The good news for the Tevs, thus, is that they benefit from being able to tackle the UEF 'piecemeal', and many of their ship designs are extremely well suited for shock-jumping a frigate before jumping back out in a few minutes. Except for a couple Diomedes (heh :/ ) and perhaps a Deimos or two in TBI, the Tevs have not sustained major losses whenever they've made a really aggressive or bold move. Severanti still escaped with the Meridian (and most, potentially all, of his escort ships) after he bombed the crap out of Luna. Serkr Team got off scot-free after obliterating a Narayana. The assaults on the Akula and Ranvir didn't result in a single ship lost, but both of the UEF frigates were destroyed. The blitz on Artemis Station killed 3 Sanctus' and 2 Karunas without a single loss, and the First Battle of Neptune killed 2 frigates, 4 Sanctus cruisers, and paved the way for taking Neptune, at the cost of a Deimos (and a lot of fighters--part of the lessons learned for both sides).
A lot of this is made possible by the UEF's continual failure to respond to threats with adequate or excessive force, especially where First Fleet is concerned. It's hard to treat the Solaris as a sword of Damocles if it's never been deployed and the guy in command of it has an extensive track record of under-committing his ships to anything but strict defensive maneuvers.
Then there was the ambush and destruction of the UEFg Rhineland, too.
By Sunglare, the UEF's 'outer half' has committed fully to decisive maneuvers twice, and the Tevs did not receive a beating. In fact, it's suggested that the UEF came out of that action more bloodied ('gave our artillery a sound thrashing' during Aristeia). While this makes the 2nd/3rd Fleets much more formidable and significant a force, it also gives Steele more opportunities to go all-out aggressive and shock-jump a Solaris or Narayana pair. If the Shepsekaf has joined the fray, things could get ugly very fast.
I for one am kind of surprised that steele hasn't been sending in the Atreus and Serkr, seeing that they all have sprint drives, on coordinated shock jumps to try to knock one of the solaris destroyers out of the war. Even if you felt kind with your armor scripting, I think having all those tev ships emerge from hyperspace, beam once, and then jump back out asap would likely at least demand that even a solaris destroyer spend a few months in dry dock getting the holes patched. I guess the counter would be to have all of the Narayanas of a fleet parked around the solaris, but then jumping in and hitting whichever frigate of the screen you feel like on a daily basis would be pretty demoralizing.
The issue with that is that the Solari destroyers have pretty much sat at the centre of their escort group at their respective home bases through out most of the war meaning taking one out a monumentally risky operation. To kill a Solaris with a good chance off victory you would need to lure it away from it's home base somehow, at least then you are only dealing with the federal fleet and not planetary defences as well.
It is the kind of operation Steele would jump at on but only if he thought he stood a realistic chance at coming out on top numbers wise and remember you are talking about putting a TEI generation destroyer + his best HK group on the line all at the same time in an operation which while useful is not currently essential to the war effort.
A Solaris has 180K hitpoints; I know meta-game factors changes up the dynamic a bit, but just using it as a baseline:
Serkr Team's single-salvo damage output is, using the standard Chimera and Bellerophon loadout, 60K + 60K + 77K - 1600 = 196,500 damage (roughly). Serkr Team has upgraded weapons. As it stands, Serkr Team alone could one-shot a Solaris. They also have sprint-drives, advanced armor, etc. With the incredible point defenses and coordination they have, it'd be a pretty daunting task to kill Serkr Team before they jump back out. The major caveat is that they'd likely need time/AWACS support to calculate the jumps/vectors beforehand, which would require the Solaris to be in the same area for long enough. A challenge, but not unheard of. In a major engagement, this already happens as part of the battle, so it may give a window of opportunity.
A Titan's damage output for its forward beams alone is 99K. Add in the two TerSlashBlue's and pulse turrets, and its capable of two-shotting a Solaris by itself, unless its beams are sniped quickly enough (or jammed quickly enough); definitely doable, yes, but what if you add in Serkr Team?
A Raynor's HBlue does about 41K from something like 9+ km away. It can fire every 30 seconds, I think, too. It also has a BBlue, 4 MBlue's, 2 TerSlashBlue's, and 2 SBlue's to use to fend off other threats until it can jump out again.
Say the Carthage and her battlegroup plays defense and holds the fort at Artemis. Let's say that the Eris is docked at a Kumari instillation orbiting Mars. Also at that station is a Narayana, a Karuna, and a couple Sanctus cruisers. Now, assuming the subspace transits are vectored, with about a minute warning:
Steele jumps in with the Imperieuse, Atreus, and Hydra. The Eris is oneshotted. The rest of the UEF ships turn to engage. They have about 30-35 seconds to do something before they are targets for an absurd amount of firepower. One of those two frigates is going to die no matter what, but either way, a UEF counterstrike force would need to feature a Solaris practically by default, along with a sizable frigate force. Gathering that force would take time, jumping there would take time, but most of all, how exactly would they manage to disable or destroy any of those Tev ships before they jumped out?
Now, in practice, it wouldn't be that easy. And the UEF is probably at least somewhat prepared for such a contingency, or something like it. But it conveys the idea: killing a Solaris itself is easy if you bring a ton of firepower--it's the aftermath that is the challenge, for both sides. Particularly problematic for the UEF is that their ships are bad at doing lots of damage quickly, especially against targets with good point defenses. When you've got 30 seconds to make something happen, that's a really big problem to deal with. Any reinforcements would also be encumbered by that same problem--they have little time to do the needed damage before the targets escape, or the targets can fire back with extreme firepower. Steele is known for his aggressiveness and love of (seemingly) unconventional tactics.
Thus, you have a huge Damocles' Sword that's hanging over the UEF's head all the time, and with every frigate they lose, the more threatening that sword becomes.
Angel Flares are really going to need to work well if they're going to change that dynamic alone.
With a number of AWACS ships and Auroras, you could park them 50km away from Rheza or the normal places of the Solaris and Eris, and have them jump back out before becoming endangered. Again and again. And on occasion, Serkr Team will shock-jump a Karuna and jump back out before taking too much damage from whatever retaliatory force comes up. Even in the meantime for that, they'd have enough firepower between them to oneshot a Solaris--you'd need some pretty damn good reinforcements to take on Serkr Team in the small timeframe you have.